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McMillian Calculator (Read 335 times)


Linda

    How accurate do you find the McMillian calculator to be when predicting a marathon time from a half marathon time?  The Mcmillian calculator is spitting out a very fast time-one that seems impossible.  The predictor is almost perfect at predicting my half time from my 5K time.  I'm running my first marathon in May.  It should be a fast course.  Should I aim for a BQ (which seems doable) or go for what Mcmillian says is possible?

     

    background:  I'll probably reach 1500 miles this year, so that means  I average 28 miles a week.  I'll amp that up for marathon training, but I doubt that I would run more than 40 miles per week regularly.  I've been running for about 5 years.  My yearly mileage is anywhere between 1000-1500 per year.

     

    The bottom line is that I run regularly, but not high mileage, and I won't be putting in 50 mile weeks in training.  Realistically, I'll put in weeks that range between 35-45.  I'll do whatever speed work my plan will call for.  Oh yes.  I almost forgot about El Nino.  Humm...I've gotta go run right now because it is about to pour.  That might put a damper on my training.

    IG profile @lindasig_runs

    Headsweats Ambassador Discount Code  "LINDASIGRUNS"

    Over 45 PR's:  5K - 21:21, Half - 1:39:49, Full - 3:33.47

     

      Not usually accurate for your first marathon.

       

      Here is an easy way to estimate.  Double your half marathon time and add 7-8 minutes.

       

      Mountains to Beach is fast if it isn't too hot.

      "Shut up Legs!" Jens Voigt

      Hannibal Granite


        The McMillan Calculator gives an approximate equivalent performance at various distances NOT a predictor of what you can do at distance X if you run a certain time at distance Y although it can work for that purpose given a few caveats.  1) The closer the distances the better the prediction will be.  A 5K to 10K will likely be closer than 5K to marathon or 5K to 100 meters 2) You are as properly trained for the second distance as you were for the first.  In other words have you done the speed work for a mile race or the mileage for a marathon.  3) The marathon is more than just twice the half-marathon.  Based on your relatively low mileage if you try to be agressive you are much more likely to blow up and not have a good experience or a good time and maybe not even BQ.

         

        TL;DR - Shoot for a BQ not the faster McMillan time, if you still feel good at 20 miles pick it up.

         

        Good Luck!

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        Dreamn


          I don't find it to be accurate at all, but I don't expect it to be because I don't run enough miles for my marathon time to be the ideal equivalent of my half time.

           

          My endurance deficit is more than double my half + 7-8 minutes too. My last marathon was double my half + 15 minutes. My marathon time before that was double my half + 17 minutes. McMillan has my current equivalent at double my half + 10 minutes.

           

          Someone on another board (and I think she posts here) using the calculator at http://www.mymarathonpace.com/Running_Calculators.html. It's the race time estimator with different "aggressiveness settings." I find that it's pretty spot on for me when I use the fairly conservative to moderate setting.


          Linda

            Thanks everyone and thanks Dreamn for the link.

            IG profile @lindasig_runs

            Headsweats Ambassador Discount Code  "LINDASIGRUNS"

            Over 45 PR's:  5K - 21:21, Half - 1:39:49, Full - 3:33.47

             

              Yeah, I just calculated and my marathon time was double the half marathon time I ran a month before (not PR time) +19 minutes!!  Ugh.  Clearly McMillan and the easy method didn't work for me.  Good info, Dreamn.

               

              I don't find it to be accurate at all, but I don't expect it to be because I don't run enough miles for my marathon time to be the ideal equivalent of my half time.

               

              My endurance deficit is more than double my half + 7-8 minutes too. My last marathon was double my half + 15 minutes. My marathon time before that was double my half + 17 minutes. McMillan has my current equivalent at double my half + 10 minutes.

               

              "Shut up Legs!" Jens Voigt

              LedLincoln


              not bad for mile 25

                I agree with what they ^ said, this being your first, and on the mileage you'll have, you should temper your expectations a lot. McMillan prediction assumes you'll have the McMillan training under you, and probably that you have some previous marathon experience.

                 

                BTW, there's a calculator on this site that's as good as any. Look under Resources.

                  Linda-

                   

                  The calculator assumes proper marathon training, courses of similar difficulty, and similar weather conditions. I tend to agree with Hannibal that you should choose the more conservative goal because of your low mileage—much too low for the marathon, actually.

                   

                  That being said, you still have time to build up to an adequate level without having to rush things too much. The fact that your half marathon time is as good as your 5k suggests that you could run a good marathon with the right training.

                  Age 60 plus best times: 5k 19:00, 10k 38:35, 10m 1:05:30, HM 1:24:09, 30k 2:04:33
                  Anonymous Guest


                    Our 5K PRs are almost identical and you're about a minute faster than me for the half. And we're both 40-something females, so I'm basing this on my own experience. My PR marathon was done using a Pfitz plan which peaked at 70 miles, and I actually peaked at 85. I felt like I paced it almost perfectly, and was still almost 4 minutes slower than McMillan predicted based on my half. I could have maybe gone a minute faster if the weather had been cooler. I am still trying to get to that magical McMillan prediction, but injury setback means it won't happen for awhile. On the other hand, I am able to BQ on a plan that peaks at 55 (so most weeks were only in the 40s).

                     

                    If I were you, I'd shoot for a little bit faster than a BQ. Go out at BQ pace and then speed up towards the end if you can. Much less likely for you to blow up and have to struggle/walk/run/limp to the finish. I've run them both ways and a conservative start is much easier on you and a much much much better experience.

                     

                    At least for me, there's no substitute for lots of miles training for a marathon. I wouldn't even attempt what McMillan predicts on low marathon training mileage - I'd be done by mile 15.

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                    KillJoyFuckStick

                      Not usually accurate for your first marathon.

                       

                      Here is an easy way to estimate.  Double your half marathon time and add 7-8 minutes.

                       

                      Mountains to Beach is fast if it isn't too hot.

                       

                      OP already stated that here mileage is in the low to medium range (35-40 MPW) for optimal marathon performance.  Your suggestion seems to be a recipe for disaster.

                      You people have issues 


                      delicate flower

                         The Mcmillian calculator is spitting out a very fast time-one that seems impossible.  

                         

                        Than it most likely is.  You're an experienced enough runner to have a reasonable idea of what you are capable of, even for your first marathon.  Better to play it conservative and have some gas left the final 10K rather than blow up with half a race left.

                         

                        fwiw my McMillan race times are almost spot on, no matter what combination of races I use, even marathon to 5K.  But right now it puts my marathon time at 3:07 hahahahah rofl rofl rofl omfg

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                        #artbydmcbride

                          Linda-

                           

                          The calculator assumes proper marathon training, courses of similar difficulty, and similar weather conditions. I tend to agree with Hannibal that you should choose the more conservative goal because of your low mileage—much too low for the marathon, actually.

                           

                          That being said, you still have time to build up to an adequate level without having to rush things too much. The fact that your half marathon time is as good as your 5k suggests that you could run a good marathon with the right training.

                          JimHowe!!

                           

                          Runners run

                          bhearn


                            JimHowe!!

                             

                            +1!!!! Long time no see!

                             

                            FWIW I've found the McMillan calculator to be reasonably accurate over a wide range of distancces, assuming appropriate training for the distance. It does break down somewhat for ultra distances.

                             

                            Here's another calculator, that shows results using a variety of different formulas.

                             

                            http://tools.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?do=title&title_id=801&mgroup_id=45577


                            Feeling the growl again

                              Mcmillan assumes equal training towards each race distance.  So low mileage runners will never approach the times of the McMillan calculator, even inputting a HM.

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                              AmoresPerros


                              Options,Account, Forums

                                My curve falls off faster than the McMillan calculator at all distances going up, I believe. That is, my 10K PR is a bit slower than McMillan predicts as equivalent to my 5K, and so forth all the way up to the marathon.

                                 

                                I score better against my age group competition at shorter races, so I suspect that my curve is just more favorable to shorter races.

                                It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.

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