My first marathon was a 3:16, the slowest of the 10 marathons I've run but I felt great throughout. It was a 1:39 / 1:37 negative split, the only negative split marathon I've run .

Darkwave: If it is menopause that has been causing all the issues, it should be good to have figured that out (I think?). Hopefully the estrogen gel will do the trick.

Ian: I hear you on every bit of weight making a difference when you're a bigger runner. I've been losing a bit I gained from my time off and the mileage going up is taking care of it slowly but surely. Nice week.

A decent week for me overall. A short tempo Wednesday felt tougher than it should have, I think partly because the previous day I was sitting out in the hot sun watching a track meet most of the day. On my long run today I ran 4 miles up-tempo (unplanned) and actually felt better than the Wednesday workout, so that was a good sign. HR is trending down which is good, just need to be patient with the workout paces being slower than I'd like.

Weekly for period: From: 05/30/2022 To 06/05/2022

Total distance: 66.45 mi

piwi - Nothing lucky about your marathon record!  Especially considering your Melbourne time was over 42.8km.

Sucking at marathons - I don't think it's fair to reach that conclusion about someone who has only done 2 marathons, even when experienced at shorter distances.  I've done heaps of shorter races but no way do I expect to have the marathon distance sussed after just 2 races.  Which is why my goal might be considered soft as it doesn't necessarily line up with my recent half or 10km times.  It does match up with my experience in the marathon though.

me - Another week of the slow build up of volume, and slow slowing down of my easy pace.  I'm pretty happy with how that's gone so far, and I'm still aiming to slow down some more.

Weekly for period: From: 05/30/2022 To 06/05/2022

Total distance: 52.22mi

piwi - Nothing lucky about your marathon record!  Especially considering your Melbourne time was over 42.8km.

 

Sucking at marathons - I don't think it's fair to reach that conclusion about someone who has only done 2 marathons, even when experienced at shorter distances.  I've done heaps of shorter races but no way do I expect to have the marathon distance sussed after just 2 races.  Which is why my goal might be considered soft as it doesn't necessarily line up with my recent half or 10km times.  It does match up with my experience in the marathon though.

I get your loyalty towards Marky,  but I remember his stubborn attitude when he was training for his first marathon and was adamant that his fast  “easy pace” was justified.

Insanity is repeating the same process and expecting a different result. 

DW - Fingers crossed the hormones get dialed in. Is there a TUE type situation for older runners who may be deficient in one area or another? Or is that a no-go?

Reeves - Solid looking tempo and a casual 66+ miles - very solid!

Steve - Nice looking long run and solid week. I'm jealous of how flat it appears to be wherever you run!

My week. I hate tapering. Especially as it coincides with our weather getting back to normal - hotter than I'm used to. Suddenly I'm running slower at a higher HR, which isn't exactly confidence inspiring.

I'm trying to trust the process, and today's run was a little better as it was rainy and only low 60s-ish at the start.

Strategy for my race next weekend

How's this sound?

The start of the race features a very short out-and-back before heading into the tunnel for 2 miles. When I ran it before, it got pretty crowded on this section, especially as the faster runners (myself marginally included in this group) turned around and then had to share the path with many other slower runners who hadn't reached the turnaround yet. Supposedly this year will be waves, and I hope to god they put me in the first wave, but perhaps this part of the race won't be so crowded this time. Nevertheless, I plan on going out ever-so-slightly faster than I would to try to put myself in a good position heading into the tunnel. I'm talking 6:45-6:50 pace for probably half a mile at most - and this section is flat, so that's possibly a slightly higher effort than I'd be putting out once we reach the downhill.

Once we hit the tunnel, I'll try to relax back to a range that's more like 6:45-7:00 and keep an eye on my heart rate. I'm hoping to be hitting steady 6:45s once we exit the tunnel, and I'd love it if my heart rate stayed around 150 for the first 5 miles at least. If I post a single sub 6:40 I'm going to dial back the effort, regardless of heart rate. If I'm running more reasonable 6:45-6:50s, but my heart rate hits 155 in the first 5 miles, I'll also probably dial back a tiny bit.

After about 5 or so, I'll let the heart rate go to 155 if it wants and cruise by feel for as long as possible. 6:45-7:00 is a loose target, and if I'm feeling all right, I definitely want to be barely sub-90 for the first half, as I've yet to negative split a marathon.

The "toughest" part of the course is around mile 21 or so. There's one turn, which also happens to be the steepest downhill - and there could be some gnarly puddles there. Then, when the turn is done (it's a wide turn that's probably 150 meters with a few bends in it), you hit a flat spot that's about a mile long before resuming downhill. When I ran my MP workout up here, this mile-and-change was my slowest split despite having the largest elevation loss (in the turn). So I'm not going to worry about my split here - I'm going to really try to modulate my effort on that flat section and just understand that it will likely be a slower split.

After the flat it's about 4-5 miles to the end, and all bets are off. I won't be paying attention to my heart rate - just trying to keep it rolling and push with anything I have left for the last few miles.

Questions

I feel like if I have a stellar day and everything goes perfectly, I could run as fast as 2:56 or so. I think anything under 3 will still require a pretty good day, but there's a tiny bit of room for the wheels to go wobbly at the end.

Does this seem reasonable or am I out of my mind?!

I know most calculators would give me somewhere between 3:00 and 3:08 based on the 5k I did a while back. But this is a downhill course - about 2,000 feet of loss. All indicators suggest that I'm in better shape than when I ran 3:12 on this course four years ago.

But what do you all think?

Weekly for period: From: 05/30/2022 To 06/05/2022

Total distance: 30.37mi

Sc I agree with what darkwave said.   If the goal is sub 3 then the pace was decided when you decided to go for it. If you’re feeling great MUCH later in the race then go for a faster time. My first one was kind of intimidating me because ‘sub-3 is like so fast it’s elite and I’m not elite.’ 6:50/mi just about did it for me and I took Jmac’s advice to speed up at 6:58/mi and slow down at 6:48/mi (MP +/- 5 seconds) and it worked out well.

DW - To clarify, it's not about being in a good spot in the tunnel - it's about avoiding being forced to the edge of the path before the tunnel, where the terrain is pretty rocky and sketchy. It's something that Seattlemax called out to me before my first tunnel race, and I definitely noticed last time. It's possible that the terrain is different this time - since there's heavy snow and rain every year, things can get shifted around.

I can take a look at the path before the race and see if it looks problematic. It looks like there are only two waves, each with a couple hundred people, so I could see it still being an issue.

I only bring it up because my normal strategy would be to target 7:00-7:05 pace in the first mile or two to ease in, especially given that it's flat.

RP - That's more or less my thought - speed up if I'm approaching 7:00 and slow down if I'm hitting 6:40-6:45. But also keeping an eye on the heart rate, too.

Ian5 - Sub 3 is a goal, but not the only one. I want a functional BQ, and my time for that is 3:20. If it feels like the pace is too hard (based on HR) for sub 3 once I'm in the thick of it, I will back off a bit to try to preserve a good BQ finish. When I threw out 2:56, that's just me estimating what might be possible on a terrific day based on my current fitness. I could see rolling 6:45s for much of the course if the stars align. But I'm planning on using the HR to help me make sure I'm not being overconfident in the early miles.

"It's also not clear to me why you're forced to the side of the road: can't you just slown down to whatever the group in the tunnel is doing?"

I phrased this really poorly. It's not about the tunnel - the tunnel is fine once you get to it. Because you're with people that are all running in the same direction! There's room to pass.

But on the out and back before the tunnel, you have to share a somewhat narrow path with both the people around you, and a much larger group of people coming the other direction once you hit the turnaround.

Picture something like this - outside the "path," the terrain is uneven and filled with small boulders. You don't want to be forced out there, and you're running against the grain, so to speak. 

I'm hoping it won't be a big deal and I'll try to keep the effort relaxed. But tripping or twisting an ankle out in the rough is pretty much a worst-case scenario, so if I need to speed up to avoid that, I will do so.

How slow will you have to go to avoid being forced to the side?

 

This is more what I meant. If you go out at 7:10 pace, are you saying that you feel like you'll have to run 7:30 or slower at that part of the path? It wouldn't be clear to me why that's the case but obviously you know the course better than all of us.

Also - same thing for me as darkwave My 2:36 (5:58 pace) had my first mile clock in at 6:14. Being 20-30 seconds off pace at the start doesn't matter. 20-30 seconds too fast though can harm you badly, mainly because you're not warmed up so those 20-30 seconds faster are like trying to race a half marathon or 10K.