2022 Advanced Racing Thread (Read 335 times)

CommanderKeen


Aspiring Hobby Jogger

    JMac - I actually kind of agree with you. Taking a break for 7 years, having multiple non-trivial injuries, and coming back at her age to smash such a record in her first marathon win is suspicious to me.

    In unrelated news, the Salomon super-mittens kinda failed me today. Those plus some light gloves underneath left me with aching fingers (mostly the thumbs) starting about halfway into my run this morning (9F, minimal wind). Thankfully this weekend will be decently warmer.

    5k: 18:14 11/21 │ 10k: 37:55 9/21 │ HM: 1:23:22 4/22 │ M: 3:04:13 11/18

     

    Upcoming Races:

     

    Wurst Race Half - 10/8

    CIM - 12/4

    darkwave


    Mother of Cats

       

       

      Keen - maybe I'm just a cynic, but I am suspicious of the d'amato record. I don't follow as closely as some others on this thread, would be curious what JT and darkwave think.

       

      A few thoughts.

       

      1) My policy is NOT to make accusations about specific runners doping, until they are caught by USADA.  I'm happy to discuss in general what things may look more or less suspicious.

       

      2) Keira trained with my team in 2013.  There are a few photos of both of us doing a hill workout (the same Iwo Jima hill workout I do sometimes to this day).  Here's one of them. She is in the yellow tank top at the front of the first group; I'm in the black and white sports bra and compression socks in the second group.

       

      3) She finished 6th at NCAA Div 1 Cross Country and was a low 16 minute 5K runner right out of college, both on a bad foot that eventually required surgery.  There was some talent there.

       

      4) All of those 3:00 plus fun run marathons are just noise and shouldn't be considered in the discussion of her progression.

       

      5) for a low 16:00 5K runner to run 2:34 at Berlin at age 34 after a break and then a few years of structured training is not all that shocking.

       

      6) Going from 2:34 at Berlin in the fall of 2019 (fast course on a good weather day) to 2:19 at Houston in January 2022 (fast course on a decent weather day) is one hell of a jump for a female runner of any age, let alone one in her late 30s (a bit less of a jump for a male, since both times are a bit further off of men's potential for the distance).

      Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

       

      And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

      JMac11


      Milkman

         

        A few thoughts.

         

        1) My policy is NOT to make accusations about specific runners doping, until they are caught by USADA.  I'm happy to discuss in general what things may look more or less suspicious.

         

        5) for a low 16:00 5K runner to run 2:34 at Berlin at age 34 after a break and then a few years of structured training is not all that shocking.

         

        6) Going from 2:34 at Berlin in the fall of 2019 (fast course on a good weather day) to 2:19 at Houston in January 2022 (fast course on a decent weather day) is one hell of a jump for a female runner of any age, let alone one in her late 30s (a bit less of a jump for a male, since both times are a bit further off of men's potential for the distance).

         

        Highlighted these three points as this sums up exactly how I feel. I feel like the running community is quick to accuse doping as soon as a record is broken. But number 6 is what really gets me. Yes, the marathon takes a few times to figure out, but what other runners have seen that sort of jump?

         

        I agree she has talent. If she was running in the 2:2X range, maybe finishing top 3 in some marathon majors, absolutely. But AR after that history? Especially at the marathon, which requires so many consistent years of training. Just doesn't feel right to me.

        5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:14:57 (5/22)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

         

        Next Race: Grete's Great Gallop 10K (8/27)

           

          Highlighted these three points as this sums up exactly how I feel. I feel like the running community is quick to accuse doping as soon as a record is broken. But number 6 is what really gets me. Yes, the marathon takes a few times to figure out, but what other runners have seen that sort of jump?

           

          I agree she has talent. If she was running in the 2:2X range, maybe finishing top 3 in some marathon majors, absolutely. But AR after that history? Especially at the marathon, which requires so many consistent years of training. Just doesn't feel right to me.

           

          I'm in total agreement; I only vaguely heard of her prior to this from that 10 miler that Molly Seidel also ran in 2020. Just a meteoric improvement in 1-2 years, and at 37 years old no less. Deena, who ran in the pre-super shoe era, by contrast had a lengthy and very impressive career in XC and track before she moved to the marathon, and not to say others aren't tough, but Deena was REALLY tough imho. I would love to know what Deena really thinks about this...

          2:52:16 (2018)

             

            Highlighted these three points as this sums up exactly how I feel. I feel like the running community is quick to accuse doping as soon as a record is broken. But number 6 is what really gets me. Yes, the marathon takes a few times to figure out, but what other runners have seen that sort of jump?

             

            I agree she has talent. If she was running in the 2:2X range, maybe finishing top 3 in some marathon majors, absolutely. But AR after that history? Especially at the marathon, which requires so many consistent years of training. Just doesn't feel right to me.

             

            Given her recent achievements at other distances such as the AR in the 10 mile, it isn't that shocking. Several years of consistent training can yield some amazing results, especially for people like Keira who haven't really had that experience and still ran fast. Keep in mind too, there have been a lot of women who have run really well into their late 30's including Sara Hall, Catherine Ndereba, Constantina Temescu, and plenty of others. It seems like women especially have maintained or graduated to elite status later in their careers.

             

            I'm not saying there is no chance she has doped. BUT... what I am saying is that, while rare, it isn't impossible to have done it clean.

             

            Any of you follow her on strava? Some of her workouts are mind blowingly good. She's also very entertaining if you are into bad jokes.

            Next Races: Fools Run 10 mile (4/2/22), York Marathon (5/15/2214/23), Stupid Marathon TT (June 2022)

            JMac11


            Milkman

               

              Given her recent achievements at other distances such as the AR in the 10 mile, it isn't that shocking. Several years of consistent training can yield some amazing results, especially for people like Keira who haven't really had that experience and still ran fast. Keep in mind too, there have been a lot of women who have run really well into their late 30's including Sara Hall, Catherine Ndereba, Constantina Temescu, and plenty of others. It seems like women especially have maintained or graduated to elite status later in their careers.

               

              I'm not saying there is no chance she has doped. BUT... what I am saying is that, while rare, it isn't impossible to have done it clean.

               

              Any of you follow her on strava? Some of her workouts are mind blowingly good. She's also very entertaining if you are into bad jokes.

               

              Yes - but everything you just said could be because of doping. E.g. her workouts are mind blowingly good because of doping. You don't dope, sit on your couch, and then go run an AR.

               

              Sara Hall also has had SO many years trying this. I remember pre-COVID a lot of talk about her going for the AR and not getting there. Look at Sara's progression at the marathon. It's a pretty standard slow march towards 2:20. She also was a 15:20 5K runner back in the day.

               

              2015 2:31:14 Chicago, IL (USA) 11 OCT 2015
              2016 2:30:06 London (GBR) 24 APR 2016
              2017 2:27:21 Frankfurt (GER) 29 OCT 2017
              2018 2:26:20 Ottawa (CAN) 27 MAY 2018
              2019 2:22:16 Berlin (GER) 29 SEP 2019
              2020 2:20:32 Chandler, AZ (USA) 20 DEC 2020
              2021 2:27:19 Chicago, IL (USA) 10 OCT 2021

               

              And here is her half marathon progression. Same exact story:

               

              Performance Place Date
              2013 1:14:33 Healdsburg, CA (USA) 26 OCT 2013
              2014 1:12:26 Dallas, TX (USA) 14 DEC 2014
              2015 1:10:49 Gold Coast (AUS) 05 JUL 2015
              2016 1:10:07 Houston, TX (USA) 17 JAN 2016
              2017 1:09:37 København (DEN) 17 SEP 2017
              2018 1:09:27 Gold Coast (AUS) 01 JUL 2018
              2019 1:11:04 Pittsburgh, PA (USA) 05 MAY 2019
              2020 1:08:58 Houston, TX (USA) 19 JAN 2020
              2022 1:07:15 Houston, TX (USA) 16 JAN 2022

               

               

               

              Now take a look at Keira. She ran a 16:09 in 2006. That is her last 5K on record until 2020. She also basically has nothing for over a decade for reasons stated.

               

              Performance Place Date
              2018 2:44:04 Duluth, MN (USA) 16 JUN 2018
              2019 2:34:55 Berlin (GER) 29 SEP 2019
              2020 2:22:56 Chandler, AZ (USA) 20 DEC 2020
              2021 2:28:22 Chicago, IL (USA) 10 OCT 2021
              2022 2:19:12 Houston, TX (USA) 16 JAN 2022

              5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:14:57 (5/22)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

               

              Next Race: Grete's Great Gallop 10K (8/27)

              runethechamp


                 

                Yes - but everything you just said could be because of doping. E.g. her workouts are mind blowingly good because of doping. You don't dope, sit on your couch, and then go run an AR.

                 

                Sara Hall also has had SO many years trying this. I remember pre-COVID a lot of talk about her going for the AR and not getting there. Look at Sara's progression at the marathon. It's a pretty standard slow march towards 2:20. She also was a 15:20 5K runner back in the day.

                 

                2015 2:31:14 Chicago, IL (USA) 11 OCT 2015
                2016 2:30:06 London (GBR) 24 APR 2016
                2017 2:27:21 Frankfurt (GER) 29 OCT 2017
                2018 2:26:20 Ottawa (CAN) 27 MAY 2018
                2019 2:22:16 Berlin (GER) 29 SEP 2019
                2020 2:20:32 Chandler, AZ (USA) 20 DEC 2020
                2021 2:27:19 Chicago, IL (USA) 10 OCT 2021

                 

                And here is her half marathon progression. Same exact story:

                 

                Performance Place Date
                2013 1:14:33 Healdsburg, CA (USA) 26 OCT 2013
                2014 1:12:26 Dallas, TX (USA) 14 DEC 2014
                2015 1:10:49 Gold Coast (AUS) 05 JUL 2015
                2016 1:10:07 Houston, TX (USA) 17 JAN 2016
                2017 1:09:37 København (DEN) 17 SEP 2017
                2018 1:09:27 Gold Coast (AUS) 01 JUL 2018
                2019 1:11:04 Pittsburgh, PA (USA) 05 MAY 2019
                2020 1:08:58 Houston, TX (USA) 19 JAN 2020
                2022 1:07:15 Houston, TX (USA) 16 JAN 2022

                 

                 

                 

                Now take a look at Keira. She ran a 16:09 in 2006. That is her last 5K on record until 2020. She also basically has nothing for over a decade for reasons stated.

                 

                Performance Place Date
                2018 2:44:04 Duluth, MN (USA) 16 JUN 2018
                2019 2:34:55 Berlin (GER) 29 SEP 2019
                2020 2:22:56 Chandler, AZ (USA) 20 DEC 2020
                2021 2:28:22 Chicago, IL (USA) 10 OCT 2021
                2022 2:19:12 Houston, TX (USA) 16 JAN 2022

                Just wanted to post here, even if I don't plan to run a marathon anytime soon, because I find this discussion interesting. It could be that the 2:34 isn't indicative of her real potential, but a step on the way from 2:44 going up. Maybe the 2:22 is the real marker, with an almost 4 minute improvement over 2 years to 2:19 (maybe including the effects of super shoes). That improvement can be compared to some of the 2-year improvements for Sara (2:30-2:26, or 2:26 to 2:20).

                 

                Otherwise I have no real opinion as I haven't followed Keira closely enough.

                5k: 20:32 (1/17)  |  HM: 1:34:37 (2/18)  |  FM: 3:31:37 (3/18)

                 

                Getting back into it

                CommanderKeen


                Aspiring Hobby Jogger

                  JMac - Point 6 on DWave's list is also my only real hanging point, especially as I don't know much about her other than the AR and what I posted earlier. I wouldn't have even noticed the new AR unless it was brought up here if I hadn't check out Strava having shown her running "with" a local guy who ran 2:20 in that same race. I'm also not making an accusation, just noting that it seems rather suspicious.


                  Kinda like the old fast guy in my town. He's currently 50, and for years ran 3:04-3:05 like clockwork with shorter distance PRs that didn't show any untapped potential. Then one spring (then age 47) he dropped a 2:55 at the OKC marathon, a 2:50 at CIM that fall, then capped it off with a 1:17 HM 5 weeks later at Houston. I'm not saying he's on the big T or anything, but that much improvement in less than a year at that age makes one scratch their head and think a bit.

                  5k: 18:14 11/21 │ 10k: 37:55 9/21 │ HM: 1:23:22 4/22 │ M: 3:04:13 11/18

                   

                  Upcoming Races:

                   

                  Wurst Race Half - 10/8

                  CIM - 12/4

                  jhudak55


                    LetsRun had a really good interview with both Deena and Keira earlier this week. In the interview Keira talks about how she went out of the way to get drug tested (paid for it herself) for her 10 mile American record despite a drug test not being required to ratify the record.

                    darkwave


                    Mother of Cats

                      Just wanted to post here, even if I don't plan to run a marathon anytime soon, because I find this discussion interesting. It could be that the 2:34 isn't indicative of her real potential, but a step on the way from 2:44 going up. Maybe the 2:22 is the real marker, with an almost 4 minute improvement over 2 years to 2:19 (maybe including the effects of super shoes). That improvement can be compared to some of the 2-year improvements for Sara (2:30-2:26, or 2:26 to 2:20).

                       

                      Otherwise I have no real opinion as I haven't followed Keira closely enough.

                       

                      You need to look at months as well as years.  2:22 to 2:19 was one year and a few weeks (December 2020 to January 2022) not two years.  But to that same point - going from:

                       

                      a) high 2:34 at a very fast race with good weather and all the elite perks and run as an even split

                      to

                      b) high 2:22 at a very fast race with perfect weather and all the elite perks and run as an even split

                       

                      in a bit over a year is also a huge jump.

                       

                      Thing is, almost anything is evidence for or against doping.    Do little mileage and run really fast?  Doping.  Do a ton of mileage and run really fast?  Doping.  Run forever and set a PR at 37?  Doping.  Take a big break and then come back and set a PR at 37?  Doping.

                       

                      Also, when looking at marathon performances to evaluate someone's ability at that point, you have to consider the course, the weather, the execution.  Marathons can go bad very quickly, as we all know, and someone can easily run 20 minutes slower than their current fitness.

                       

                      That's why I'm not focusing on stuff like the Olympic trials result (tough course, not the best weather, and she blew up) or the marathons run where she clearly wasn't focused on running fast.

                       

                      But 2:34 to 2:22 in a bit over a year is a BIG JUMP.  Especially for someone who previously trained as a very high level as a professional runner in her 20s and peaked with a low 16:0x 5K (which roughly equates to that 2:34 marathon).

                       

                      And to that same point, a 2:34:55 from August 2019 equates to a ~55 minute 10 miler.  In March November of 2020 she ran a 51:23 for 10 miles as essentially a solo time trial (which equates to a 2:24 marathon).  That is also a HUGE jump in 7 months a bit over a year for a runner who had a past history as a professional runner (with PRs at that time consistent with the 2:34/55) and who had been training for several years after a big break.  [edited because I had the wrong date for the 10 miler]

                       

                      I get the point about "stepping stones" - but you usually see a diminishing rate of improvement - the big jumps come easy at first, but are much smaller later.  And you have to look at the time gap between the stepping stones.

                      Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                       

                      And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                      darkwave


                      Mother of Cats

                        Put another way - the graph of improvement in race times for someone who trains seriously for an extended period of time is logarithmic.  Steep in the early part, and then flattens out as you get closer to your potential (and of course, as you get older, at some point it starts falling again).

                         

                        When someone takes a lot of time off and then comes back, that early improvement curve will be even steeper, since it's easier to get back to where you were before than to get there in the first place.  But once you get back to where you were before, the curve should flatten out.

                         

                        Her improvement curve has not flattened out, and is still quite steep.  Which is crazy unless you believe she is capable of much faster than 2:19, which would make her an outlier in a field of outliers.

                         

                        And I find it hard to believe that her ultimate potential is much faster than 2:19, since she had an earlier professional career in her 20s where she peaked with that low 16 5K, which again matches that mid-2:30s marathon.

                        Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                         

                        And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                        darkwave


                        Mother of Cats

                           


                          Kinda like the old fast guy in my town. He's currently 50, and for years ran 3:04-3:05 like clockwork with shorter distance PRs that didn't show any untapped potential. Then one spring (then age 47) he dropped a 2:55 at the OKC marathon, a 2:50 at CIM that fall, then capped it off with a 1:17 HM 5 weeks later at Houston. I'm not saying he's on the big T or anything, but that much improvement in less than a year at that age makes one scratch their head and think a bit.

                           

                          Improvement (especially in 40s and beyond) for someone who has been running consistently for years is a flag (I say that as someone who set all her lifetime PRs in her mid-40s).  Masters doping is a real issue, especially with the prevalence of anti-aging clinics and a remarkable # of people who insist that if a doctor prescribes something, it's legal and not cheating.

                           

                          The real red flags for me with regard to older runners doping is a) physique - are they absurdly ripped and getting more ripped each year?  and b) how is their recovery?  Are they racing week after week or doing back-to-back sessions that 20-somethings can barely handle and not breaking but thriving?    Masters runners can run quite fast, but they need to adjust as they age - more recovery, slower easy days, more sleep, more cross-training.  If you don't see that, then I get suspicious.

                           

                          People were sure for years that Kevin Castille was on something, mostly not because of the absolute speed of his performances, but because of how close those performances were to each other.  He was running a LOT of races on back-to-back weekends with no injury or loss of performance.  He didn't seem to need to recover like the normal late 40s guy.

                          And then he got busted, and everyone was "YUP."

                          Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                           

                          And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                          JMac11


                          Milkman

                             

                             

                            People were sure for years that Kevin Castille was on something, mostly not because of the absolute speed of his performances, but because of how close those performances were to each other.  He was running a LOT of races on back-to-back weekends with no injury or loss of performance.  He didn't seem to need to recover like the normal late 40s guy.

                             

                            This is EXACTLY what every baseball player talked about when they got caught on PEDs. It wasn't that taking HGH made them throw their fastball harder, or hit a HR farther. It was just that they recovered so easily from every workout that they could basically train however they wanted. I remember Andy Pettite specifically talking about using HGH to recover from some injury he had back in the day.

                             

                            Hey - if I could jump to 120 MPW with almost 0 risk of injury and run 3 Daniels workouts per week, I'm pretty sure I would cut off 10+ minutes from my PR. We all would.

                            5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:14:57 (5/22)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                             

                            Next Race: Grete's Great Gallop 10K (8/27)

                            Running Problem


                            Problem Child

                              If they’re older than me, and they’re faster than me, they’re doping.

                              Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

                              VDOT 54.9

                              5k19:35 | Marathon 2:56:07

                              HermosaBoy


                                If they’re older than me, and they’re faster than me, they’re doping.

                                 

                                No, I'm not...

                                 

                                Although, to be fair I am still trying to get back to where I was a little while back.

                                And you can quote me as saying I was mis-quoted. Groucho Marx

                                 

                                Rob