Steve - your goal time is now in the top 3 for most talked about topics on this thread. Anyway I've said enough times I think it's 3:15 especially since it's your first real one, not 3:10. Anyway nothing else to add from previous discussions.

Also darkwave is spot on with her advice: I have run almost every single half marathon PR by training for a pace that is a good 1-2 minutes slower in total time. Hasn't mattered at all. Same is true with marathon, as MP is more of a mindset training run of how to go long distances at hard efforts without stopping. It's not about the exact pace. So I wouldn't worry about that.

Finally, you are insane for checking 14 day forecasts. You are a weather company's marketing dream. Shut it down until 5-7 days out when they actually mean something.

Flavio - wow that is scary with your wife. Did she yell at you for your pacing duties? That sounds like terrible half marathon weather and I'm not sure I would even race in it too be honest. 5K is probably the longest I'd race in those conditions. Also good luck on your 10K.

Darkwave - your personal worst in a half is 1:34??? Is that the best PW on this thread? Has to be.

Dave/Mmerkle - the concept of a "dead zone" was generally in relation to easy running. We actually all generally agreed with the concept, it was just that the pace range provided made no sense. I specifically remember 2:40 runners doing 7:40 easy runs as a dead zone. In no way is that the case. I'd say DZ running is MP+10%. Very good for long runs, especially near the end. Not good if that's what your easy runs look like.

Steve - LOL yeah I was a crappy pacer, way too fast the first 7k! Honestly the guilt from the thought I caused it was the worst.

Also - you probably should stick to what you can control, the weather is not one of those. Maybe obsess over the right shade of blue to wear on race day? 😂

DW - a personal worst of 1h34 in 86F weather, thats mighty impressive. You are in great shape and the marathon agrees with your body, it's a good sign.

Mikkey - thanks for keeping the thread entertaining

Also Steve: Don't feed the trolls 😂

If they're right but you stick to your plan, you will feel amazing the last 5km and pass hundreds of people, and you will be wanting to run another marathon.

If they're wrong and you give up your plan and follow theirs, you will feel utterly destroyed the last 10km, hating on life and feel like kicking light posts. You will be bitter for weeks afterwards.

Darkwave - just had time to read your race report. Also I realized we don't have you on the front page given you weren't sure you were running. Given the temperatures and full sunshine, after doing some mathematical gymnastics with my TDP/VDOT calculator, I am putting you down for 3:09:59 for your A goal, assuming you get a great weather day in Chicago. How does that sound?

Also, 140 TDP for a half is brutal in my opinion. 130 I consider hot, and 120 would be "not ideal". Probably bump those down by about 10 degrees for a marathon, and up by 10 for a 5K.

Cinnamon - I've noticed a theme - you're either in the Pacific or in a hot tub every day 

Flavio/Steve - definitely thinking going out at 3:09 pace would make Steve hate life by 35K.

Didn't drop off my week last night as I wanted to respond to others and didn't have time. This was a highest mileage ever for me. I plan to hold around this level until the taper (minus my half week). Started to run doubles as I can't get any more with singles. My Wednesday run was meant to be one run, but I had to split it up into AM/PM due to bathroom issues as we spoke about. My MP run was good on Saturday.

On one hand, I feel like I'm finally starting to get into marathon shape. On the other, my times are a good 5-10 seconds slower than they should be (even weather adjusted) than they should be at this point comparing to past cycles. Most likely my goal for NYC given the difficulty of the course and the numbers I'm spitting out in my training will be 2:39:59, but I'll finalize something after I see what I run in the half in 2 weeks. Maybe I'll make a miraculous jump in fitness in these last few weeks. It's not out of the cards.

Weekly for period: From: 09/12/2022 To 09/18/2022

Total distance: 91.11mi

JMac- Very nice week!  All of those miles with quality runs mixed in will reap benefits.

Steve- I think you're approaching this absolutely correctly.  I think Cal put is best taking small chunks and racing at your fitness level is best. My best races were always run with a reasonable goal and each improvement was incremental (usually about 4 minute improvement per cycle 3:12-3:08-3:04-2:58).  I seem to get myself in trouble when I try to bite off too much.....

DW- 140 TDP for a half is ROUGH sledding!!

CAL- Your week reminds me of some of the old 13,13,13,13,13,13,13 weeks.  They certainly paid off then....

Flavio- On every run I mentally prepare myself for the strength work I'm going to start doing.  Problem is I never do it! It's a mental thing I just can't get past. I have the weights, bench, equipment but it sits there staring at me.  On a positive note its a great drying rack for clothes.

My week- Unplanned step back from 3 weeks in the mid-80s. When it became apparent that work wasn't going to budge I accepted it and will hopefully benefit from the break.

Dave PNW: Three weeks out, a 22 mile long run, 8% slower than planned MP, looks like a good test. You passed! Dial in the MP a little this week, pass again, and I think you're good for 3:15 .

 

Yeah but I still haven't run a race so I don't know how my body will hold up to the last 10km.  Also, I've been training towards my goal time so if I suddenly decide to take 10 minutes off that, I'm asking my body to do what I didn't train for.  I guess when you've done as many as you guys, maybe you forget your first and the fear involved?  I did hear a good piece of advice the other day - you only get one first marathon so make sure you enjoy it.

 

Sub 3:10 is what your rule suggests.  But how many people get a lifetime PR in their first marathon?

 

Umm... Me!* In a situation similar to yours. I'd been running with a club for about 4 years; lots of halfs but respected the distance to much to try a marathon before. Clubmates were suggesting a faster pace than my conservative 4:59/k (8 min/mile) plan (Halfx2 +20). I started off with the 3:30 pace group, but it seemed too slow and I pulled a bit ahead after 5k. Then ran into a very experienced clubmate to run with; it seemed half the large local crowd knew him and would cheer for him at every corner. He would respond by stepping up the pace just a little. We went through the half at 1:43:50, not far off 3:30 pace, but then... every Km got a little faster. At 39k, he said he was out of gas, and I should go ahead. But I stuck with him and we got in at 3:23 (~5 min neg. split). A dream race - thoroughly enjoyed it!

Your plan for 3:15 pacing, then let's see in the last 10k, sounds pretty good to me!

- - - - -
* Pretty embarassing really, but 6 months after that I moved back to the US and a much tougher job. I ran Boston the next spring, might have beaten the PR time but got greedy and crashed on a warm day. Then I really wound up in the job from hell (idiot boss, 12+ hr days), never got back to the same fitness, and got multiple injuries because I didn't know enough to train well. I ran 3:23 high two more times, but couldn't squeeze out a PR. By the time I got smarter about training, aging had slowed me down. At Boston 2012, I thought I had a chance at 3:20, but it turned out to be 30⁰C (86⁰F) at the start and got worse. Barely finished; it wrecked me for months. Worst mistake ever to pass on the free deferment offered.

 

Flavio - I'm sorry your wife's PR attempt didn't work out. Will she have a chance for another later in the year?
Scary stuff with her passing out like that and then not getting any attention at the "Emergency" room.

 

Just to clarify, it's not uncommon that she'll faint due to the heat, that happened before maybe 5 or 6 times now. I figure her sweating system must be flawed.

But she was alright soon after, I just got a bit scared that she fainted twice, in hindsight we should probably just have headed home.

Had a bit of a laugh at this.