London Marathon (Read 1085 times)

This is the most competitive men's marathon in the world this year, so let's talk about it. Who do you think will win? Here's the men's field: * Felix Limo (KEN), 2:06:14, 2006 race champion * Emmanuel Mutai (KEN), 2:06:29, 2007 ING Amsterdam Marathon champion * Sammy Wanjiru (KEN), 2:06:39, 2007 Fukuoka Marathon winner; half-marathon world record holder * Martin Lel (KEN), 2:06:41, defending champion/2005 race champion and 2007 NYC champion * Hendrick Ramaala (RSA), 2:06:55, 2004 ING NYC champion * Jaouad Gharib (MAR), 2:07:02, two-time world champion * Stefano Baldini (ITA), 2:07:22, 2004 Olympic Marathon gold medalist * Yonas Kifle (ERI), 2:07:34, 2005 World Half-Marathon Championship bronze medalist * Abderrahim Goumri (MAR), 2:07:44, 2007 NYC and London runner-up * Ryan Hall (USA), 2:08:24, U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials champion * Luke Kibet (KEN), 2:08:52, 2007 world champion * Aleksey Sokolov (RUS), 2:09:07, 2007 adidas Dublin Marathon winner * Meb Keflezighi (USA), 2:09:53, 2004 Olympic Marathon silver medalist I wrote a preview on my blog, complete with odds from British gambling sites: http://adeel.blogspot.com/2008/04/most-competitive-marathon-of-year-at.html I predict Wanjiru in 2:05:30-2:06:30. The women's field is wide open without Paula Radcliffe: Gete Wami Berhane Adere Constantina Tomescu-Dita Selina Kosgei Adriana Pirtea Pirtea made her debut at Chicago last year where she was going to win until she obliviously blew kisses to the crowd and got passed by Adere. Wami won Berlin and then came back five weeks later to hang with Paula Radcliffe for about 26 miles in New York. I pick Wami.

This is a really stacked field... I hope Ryan does well against these guys. Some Ryan Hall links... Ryan Hall: "The Future" (And Present?) from LetsRun.com A recent 24 mile workout (12 moderate, 10 tempo, 2 cooldown)

This is a really stacked field... I hope Ryan does well against these guys.

I think Hall's best chance is a fast race, maybe 2:05-2:06. Lel is a great racer, as is Goumri. If it's a repeat of New York, which had a lot of fast surges or London 2007, where six guys were together at 40k, Hall's going to get left behind. If it's a fast pace early on, I can't see too many people sticking around. Of course, Hall might not stick around himself if it's a fast pace. It's definitely a very unpredictable race. You can watch this Sunday starting at 4:45 am New York time at wcsn.com.

I think Hall's best chance is a fast race, maybe 2:05-2:06. Lel is a great racer, as is Goumri. If it's a repeat of New York, which had a lot of fast surges or London 2007, where six guys were together at 40k, Hall's going to get left behind. If it's a fast pace early on, I can't see too many people sticking around. Of course, Hall might not stick around himself if it's a fast pace. It's definitely a very unpredictable race.

I think a sub-2:06 race favors Wanjiru, not Hall, and probably favors Wanjiru over everybody else! Hall is not going to be able to surprise anybody after last year's showing which was terrific. The pack is definitely going to be eyeing everybody. I don't think there's much chance for anybody to pull off a Gomes dos Santos NYC-like win (where he ran off for the win when everybody assumed he'd fall back to the pack). It's going to be a sick race... If Ryan Hall is in good shape, I predict a PR for him. Also of note, Meb is a scratch from the London field as he said he is "not fit". He is focusing on making the US team for the 10000m, so the London marathon doesn't fit in with that. Unfortunately for him, I think he has/had the potential to run a faster marathon, but he just hadn't gotten in the right race at the right time. Now depending on his health, he may never set a new marathon PR.

I know she's a dark horse contender, but my money's on freckles in a major upset. Make it so freckles.

Now that Paula is out I'm feeling confident of a win

Go Freckles!! WOOT!!!

ryan hall and london marathon coverage from today's ny times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/11/sports/othersports/11marathon.html?st=cse&sq=ryan+hall&scp=1

Now that Paula is out I'm feeling confident of a win

I'd say you have in the bag, girlfriend!