2018 Boston Marathon Thread (Read 554 times)

jkim579


    bhearn - thanks so much for sharing this!  Seems to be pretty conservative for the first 2/3 of the race, I dunno if I would have that much pep left in my legs after 20 or so miles.  I did end up buying Greg Maclin's spreadsheet as it has a lot of cool little extra features and I like supporting someone who has contributed so much to the running community over the years.

     

    Those are nice enough but I will take mine over any of them. If you want to run sub-3, you could do a lot worse than this. Just saying.

     

    jkim579


      In terms of weather, I have been following Dave epstein's text forecasts, I think they are alot more useful than reading numbers off of accuweather.com.

      bhearn


        For all of you obsessing over the weather, I give you this.

        You're welcome.  Actually, I'm just providing the link.  Someone way smarter and more dedicated is to thank.

         

        https://runaugur.shinyapps.io/boston_marathon_weather_analysis/

         

        Something fishy there. 2005 was not 66 degrees. Mid 80s.

        bhearn


          I have two problems with the pace bands.  First, the instantaneous pace feedback from a GPS watch isn't accurate enough to adjust pace +/- a few seconds per mile in real time.  Second, mile splits aren't the right way to do it.  Splits should occur wherever pace changes.  For example, if a mile is uphill half a mile and downhill half a mile, you don't run the prescribed pace for the entire mile, but slower for part of it and faster for part of it., but with the pace band only giving mile splits, you have no idea of the correct pace for each half mile.  The pace band would be more useful if (in this example) if it gave a pace for each half mile separately.

           

          Instantaneous pace from GPS is enough to keep you in the ballpark. I try to keep it about 5 sec under planned pace. Then correct at the next mile split. Mile splits are what you get in a marathon... if you are lucky. At Boston they are accurate. As Joe says, you know when your pace band shows a slower mile coming up there are going to be hills somewhere. You don't just slow your pace down immediately.

           

          At Boston when I use a pace band I generally hit every mile within about 5 sec of cumulative target time. There's no reason to be that anal, but it is certainly doable if you want to.

            On the weather side, I'll take Accuweather over Weather.com.  His name is Bob Smerbeck.  He can't be wrong.

             

            "Morning temperatures will be in the mid-40s and afternoon temperatures are expected to reach around 50. Winds will blow out of the west at 10-20 mph with gusts reaching 30-35 mph, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck."

             

            "AccuWeather is forecasting a gusty west wind so runners will have wind at their backs, which could potentially help them."

             

            https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-boston-marathon-runners-may-encounter-cool-wet-conditions/70004579

             

            Make it so.

              "In April in New England, if it's a cold marathon day then it's often a slight to significant headwind with the wind coming off the cooler coastal waters. If it's a warm day, then it's often a tailwind with the warm southwest wind. On a rare perfect marathon day, as was the case in 2011, the weather is cool with a tailwind," McGrane said.

               

              So the one time I ran this race was in 2011 and I expect it to be like that or better!  The wind gust report scares me however I don't think we head west all that much right?  A lot of it is north and east correct?

              2014 Goals: (Yeah I suck)

              • Sub 22  5K
              • Sub 1:35 1/2 marathon 
              • Sub 3:25:00 Marathon
              npaden


                The course would probably be considered East Northeast.

                 

                Seems like all the forecasts are calling for 50's and rain likely, but they are moving around on the wind direction.

                 

                Sounds like it all depends on when the front moves through.

                 

                Most are predicting strong SSE winds with big gusts right now.

                Age: 50 Weight: 224 Height: 6'3" (Goal weight 195)

                Current PR's:  Mara 3:14:36* (2017); HM 1:36:13 (2017); 10K 43:59 (2014); 5K 21:12 (2016)

                joescott


                  Anybody getting together after the race this year, or possibly the day before?

                  - Joe

                  We are fragile creatures on collision with our judgment day.

                  npaden


                    Latest forecasts are looking like the front isn't going to blow in until right around noon and the wind is going to be pretty much straight out of the south now instead of ESE.

                     

                    If it can hold off just a couple more hours that would be great!

                    Age: 50 Weight: 224 Height: 6'3" (Goal weight 195)

                    Current PR's:  Mara 3:14:36* (2017); HM 1:36:13 (2017); 10K 43:59 (2014); 5K 21:12 (2016)

                    darkwave


                    Mother of Cats

                      Latest forecasts are looking like the front isn't going to blow in until right around noon and the wind is going to be pretty much straight out of the south now instead of ESE.

                       

                      If it can hold off just a couple more hours that would be great!

                       

                      Or, alternately, move through earlier.  The next few days looked great.

                      Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                       

                      And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                      FSBD


                        I think I may be the only weirdo that likes the current forecast.  Cold and rainy is my jam when it comes to marathon running.

                        We are the music makers,

                            And we are the dreamers of dreams,

                        Wandering by lone sea-breakers,

                            And sitting by desolate streams; 

                        World-losers and world-forsakers,

                            On whom the pale moon gleams:

                        Yet we are the movers and shakers

                            Of the world for ever, it seems.

                        darkwave


                        Mother of Cats

                          I think I may be the only weirdo that likes the current forecast.  Cold and rainy is my jam when it comes to marathon running.

                           

                          No, I'm with you.  I think this is a good forecast.  Not A+ like the days after, but a solid B to B+.  I'll take it over what they had the past 2 years.

                          Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                           

                          And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                          joescott


                            I also do not mind cool and rainy.  But the forecasts I am looking at seem to be showing a headwind of about 20 mph.  :-(

                            - Joe

                            We are fragile creatures on collision with our judgment day.

                            JMac11


                            RIP Milkman

                              The forecast for Monday looks bad, but wow, it is nothing compared to Sunday at race time, which would have been 34 degrees, 20+ mph winds, and rain! That is how half the field gets hypothermia. At least Monday will be in the 50's.

                              5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:14:57 (5/22)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                               

                               

                              weatherboy80


                                Well - we are hoping for 50s but the morning will likely be much colder, raw, and damp, especially in the village!

                                1mile: 4:46 (12/20) | 5K: 15:57 (3/21)  |  10K: 33:40 (4/20)  |  15K 51:43 (4/21) | HM: 1:15:03 (12/20)  |  FM: 2:40:30 (1/20)