Forums >Health and Nutrition>The COVID-19 Wild West Thread
That certainly wasn't the meaning I was intending, but my words did imply that to you, so that's a failure on my part - thank you for calling me on it. No. I believe one's character and treatment of others matters. Robert's descriptions of their interactions from those days are not a revelation...Bill Gates Admits He Was a Nightmare Boss, and consensus is he's improved as a person over the years.
That certainly wasn't the meaning I was intending, but my words did imply that to you, so that's a failure on my part - thank you for calling me on it.
No. I believe one's character and treatment of others matters.
Robert's descriptions of their interactions from those days are not a revelation...Bill Gates Admits He Was a Nightmare Boss, and consensus is he's improved as a person over the years.
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(see log).
awkward
"Famous last words" ~Bhearn
MoBramExam
Responses such as the ones below are very informative and helpful. Having never paid close attention to any vaccine research of any type, trying to catch up now with all the conflicting information is difficult to sort out. My understanding all along is that after nearly 20 years, there is no vaccine for a SARS virus?? Personally, this is where I see much of the skepticism coming into play when we are told a vaccine "is right around the corner", or if one is quickly approved it is "safe".
Regarding the fight against the virus on another front, it is sincerely difficult for me to understand how people (primarily referring to US citizens) who unequivocally support any degree of lockdown mitigation can read of the chain of events in places such as New Zealand, South Korea, and Melbourne (SEE LINK BELOW) and not have some reservations as to how far these measures may go.
Quote from Trent on 8/12/2020 at 2:16 AM:
Never approved, but well developed over the years. There just was never a reason to pay for and conduct Phase III trials. The closest was for SARS CoV 1, but we never got to the point where we needed a vaccine for that.
spaniel -- What mRNA vaccine was being developed for SARS, that was what, 2003-2004? I'd need to check but I don't think the big 3 (Moderna, BioNTech, CureVac) existed then. Perhaps an academic effort? Genuinely curious, I didn't know they went that far back.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/forced-isolation-may-be-the-only-way-to-stop-resurgence-of-virus
Feeling the growl again
Responses such as the ones below are very informative and helpful. Having never paid close attention to any vaccine research of any type, trying to catch up now with all the conflicting information is difficult to sort out. My understanding all along is that after nearly 20 years, there is no vaccine for a SARS virus?? Personally, this is where I see much of the skepticism coming into play when we are told a vaccine "is right around the corner", or if one is quickly approved it is "safe". Regarding the fight against the virus on another front, it is sincerely difficult for me to understand how people (primarily referring to US citizens) who unequivocally support any degree of lockdown mitigation can read of the chain of events in places such as New Zealand, South Korea, and Melbourne (SEE LINK BELOW) and not have some reservations as to how far these measures may go. Quote from Trent on 8/12/2020 at 2:16 AM: spaniel -- What mRNA vaccine was being developed for SARS, that was what, 2003-2004? I'd need to check but I don't think the big 3 (Moderna, BioNTech, CureVac) existed then. Perhaps an academic effort? Genuinely curious, I didn't know they went that far back. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/forced-isolation-may-be-the-only-way-to-stop-resurgence-of-virus
There is no SARS vaccine. The problem with things like SARS and Ebola has been that the outbreaks burn themselves out so quickly that by the time a vaccine is developed and ready for clinical trials, the outbreak is gone. So companies sink tens of millions of dollars into a black hole. The only realistic was to develop such a vaccine would be a public funded effort. No for-profit company can develop a vaccine and put it on the shelf just in case it comes back. Though I do recall that given several closely spaced Ebola outbreaks we do have one or more in the wings there, finally.
Regarding mitigation efforts, I only have opinions and others have theirs. Endless debate. I will note that recall back in March/April/May we were told the goal was to "flatten the curve" so the healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed. Well, we've done that. Except in a small number of locations this has not been an issue. But it seems the narrative has become to completely extinguish the virus. Well after 100 days without a case we know New Zealand couldn't do this. Perhaps...just perhaps... this is an unrealistic goal. I am concerned that the price of lockdowns exceeds the benefit. Working in oncology I hear a lot of chatter about the massive decline in cancer diagnoses this year. Those cancers are still happening, they just aren't being caught early because people are afraid to go in. So they will present later, at a more advanced and less treatable stage. Add onto that the mental health/addiction issues and I start to wonder if overall mortality isn't increased by lockdowns (I don't KNOW). My parents are both extremely high risk health-wise for this virus so they have isolated themselves completely. They don't expect the world to stop for them.
Then we have like 1/3 of the population saying they wouldn't get a vaccine so you just want to throw up your hands.
"If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does. There's your pep talk for today. Go Run." -- Slo_Hand
I am spaniel - Crusher of Treadmills
Mother of Cats
Emphatically cosigned. All of this.
Without minimizing the severity and risk of this virus - we need to learn how to live with it, manage it, and move on.
I think the stresses on our society and public health are starting to crescendo. And something that I've noted, anecdotally in my personal circles, is that it's those with who struggle with mental health issues (anxiety and similar) who argue most strongly for lockdowns. It's a bad cycle - being stuck inside for months on end increases one's anxiety, and they soothe that anxiety by clinging to the idea that as long as they and everyone else stays inside, we'll all be safe and this will all go away.
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And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.
The problem with things like SARS and Ebola has been that the outbreaks burn themselves out so quickly that by the time a vaccine is developed and ready for clinical trials, the outbreak is gone. So companies sink tens of millions of dollars into a black hole. The only realistic was to develop such a vaccine would be a public funded effort. No for-profit company can develop a vaccine and put it on the shelf just in case it comes back. Though I do recall that given several closely spaced Ebola outbreaks we do have one or more in the wings there, finally.
Yet within 120 days (Nov 2019 to March 2020) we went from Wuhan outbreak to global lockdowns and a private sector race for the cure? A critical thinking exercise for the ages.
In general, like spaniel and darkwave, have my opinions and other have theirs. Do happen to share the ones expressed by both of them...every single word. Anecdotally, seeing and hearing the same as darkwave. Its in your face now if your eyes are open.
Going forward in whatever direction we take each other, my biggest concern related to our mitigation efforts is that enough people have not recognized the unstoppable economic chain of events set into motion by the lockdown. I'm seeing very little of it in personal and professional circles. Believing we may have evolved too far into viewing economics in a dollars and cents context and have lost the awareness of its hunting, gathering, survival context. Too many are willing to shelter in place and let Washington or The Fed fix it. Similar to their approach to darkwave's "we need to learn how to live with it, manage it, and move on" comment on challenging C19 rather than hiding from it. They are content to wait and let science fix it.
(FWIW - As a semi-old timer here, was thinking that one of the things early on in this thread, and several other recent topics, that is missing these days are the spaniel / Jeff exchanges. Always provided lots to chew on.)
I agree with the idea that we need to learn to live with covid. But how? I work in a school. I am lucky in that I work for an affiliate of a major hospital, so we get their expertise on infection control and I have a job that can be done from home even if students come back. Work provides PPE and cleaning supplies, friends who work in public schools aren't so lucky. They were told they would need to disinfect between classes and the cleaning supplies would not be provided. Wipes, sprays and the like are still in short supply and in some cases the prices are ridiculous (150 Clorox wipes for $60?!). This is just one of the concerns and it is legitimate--how are you supposed to clean if you aren't being the tools to do so?
Regarding the cancer diagnoses declining, is it just that people are afraid to go to the doctors or that some screenings had to stop for 2-3 months and now you have a back log of appointments?
RIP Milkman
At this point the consensus is that there is very little to almost no risk of transmission via surfaces. It's very similar to outdoor transmission: there haven't been any real documented cases of this type. I understand that schools will still have to do this to make people feel better, but personally I wouldn't worry about that.
Spaniel and Darkwave with excellent insights here.
5K: 16:37 (11/20) | 10K: 34:49 (10/19) | HM: 1:14:57 (5/22) | FM: 2:36:31 (12/19)
At this point the consensus is that there is very little to almost no risk of transmission via surfaces. It's very similar to outdoor transmission: there haven't been any real documented cases of this type. I understand that schools will still have to do this to make people feel better, but personally I wouldn't worry about that. Spaniel and Darkwave with excellent insights here.
The cleaning is just one piece of the puzzle. I would argue keeping the surfaces clean is more important now because you don't want any other illnesses transmitting. The bigger issue with schools is the number of people in close proximity. If masks aren't required or worn properly, it's going to (and already is) causing problems.
ETA, for those in favor of opening everything back up, how does it impact you on a daily basis? Do you work around a lot of people? Kids? Etc?
I can only speak for myself, but I'm not in favor of opening everything back up. I was in favor of those past two posts not because they're arguing that (which I'm not sure they are), but rather because there are a lot of negatives of lockdowns that we must weigh, some of which have been pointed out. That doesn't mean we should go back to normal, but rather that the framing of this discussion of "Person X cares more about dollars and cents than Grandma's life" is not fair and another indicator of our overly partisan world we live in. You can live somewhere between things locked down until every citizen is vaccinated and COVID is a hoax and people wearing masks are sheep.
Schools are a perfect, rather difficult, example of this. If schools are shut down now, they're not opening the rest of the school year, as we will not be that much better come the spring semester. You've brought up some great challenges faced, and probably more imporantly, I'd argue the point around putting at risk teachers back in a classroom. There are certainly arguments to be had though around another "lost year" for children and how that will impact the long term. My daughter is only a 3 weeks old right now and I can say I'm lucky we don't have to face this decision being made.
One day at a time
My sister is a special ed (literacy) teacher in Austin. She has two jobs, one in the city school district and the other at the Texas School for the Blind, where kids come from all over the state and live on campus. She feels strongly that kids need to be back in school - especially the ones who are struggling. She said studies have shown that if they continue to fall behind now, they won't catch up. And online instruction does not cut it. I'm not sure what TSB has decided to do about kids coming back next month. What a disaster.
Problem Child
Can’t go back until a cure is out. Masks aren’t enough. Kids can learn more later. Everyone needs to be focused on beating COVID 19. If that means some kids are delayed then let some kids be delayed in learning. People have died due to COVID 19 and we can’t ignore those who have died just so some kid can learn his colors.
Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.
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5k18:xx | Marathon 2:55:22
So....I am not in favor of "opening everything up" in the sense of "let's all act like this virus doesn't exist, and return to how things were last August - face masks and social distancing be dammned"
What I am advocating for is a change in mindset.
Right now, I see a lot of "we must keep everything closed that is not essential." In my other sport, horse riding, some horse shows have been happening. Which to my mind makes sense - horse riding is mostly outdoors and lends itself quite well to social distancing with some modifications in how you act on the ground. And yet those horse shows have been roundly criticized for attempting to run, because "it is irresponsible to do anything that is not essential."
Similarly, a lot of criticism of my friends who have gone to the gym, or to the beach, even though they wore masks and social distanced while doing so. Because it's irresponsible to do anything that is not essential and has any risk during a pandemic.
[which, of course, raises the question of "what is essential"? I would argue that whether something is "essential" hinges on the timeframe. Water is not essential within a 30 minute time frame, but it certainly is within a 3 day time frame. And....as the timeframe gets longer and extends into months and even years, things like sports, visiting family, travel, in-person education, and the arts become essential.]
I think the mindset needs to shift to: "how can we restore as much as our previous lives as possible while mitigating the risk of the virus, understanding that risk will never be zero."
And under that mind set, there are some things that still probably can't happen (or at least can't until we have either a vaccine, an easy/quick cure, or immediate turn-around/extremely accurate testing). Things like night clubs and high school wrestling. But there are a lot of other things that can happen, with modifications. Running races strikes me as one of them.
As part of that shift in mindset, we need to understand that there will be regularly be situations where there are confirmed COVID 19 cases present at a public event, like a race, restaurant, etc. If you call a group of kids back to college or have a swim meet - I'm sure at least one of the kids/adults will be COVID 19 positive. That's to be expected and normal, and is not in my mind something to freak out about. The goal is to reduce transmission and spread, not to eliminate the existence. If you have an event attended by some who are COVID 19 positive, but no spread, then to my mind that event was a success and can continue (where some now would classify it as a mistake).
As for your question on how "opening everything back up" would affect me? If all restrictions were lifted today, it honestly wouldn't affect me much. I telecommuted 100% of the time before this, so that hasn't changed. My partner is an essential IT worker, so he's been going in the whole time. My gym, yoga studio, and pool are already open, since I'm in Virginia. (I've been going to the pool, but not the gym or the yoga studio since my partner and I are both considered high risk). The biggest differences for me would be that there would be more races, possibly some music concerts (if I was willing to attend them - not sure I would), and it would be easier to travel.
I'd like to understand why major league baseball... a sport played mostly outside... has had a fair amount of positives. I'm 100% sure we still don't understand enough about the virus and unlocking this mystery may help us really understand better what physical pursuits are more/less safe than others. Like everyone else here, I can *guess* some reasons why it may be happening (closeness in the dugout, for example), but none of us really know.
Personally, I have not returned to the gym. I know that the beast does not transmit via surfaces in the way we originally thought, but that only makes me feel better about counter tops, groceries, and other objects. Sweaty gym equipment? Indoors? I'm still not ready to do that.
Also, with all the hand wringing about wearing masks, we kind of stopped saying outloud another thing, which is good in general... especially as we head into fall: the importance of hand washing. And ain't nobody doing this at the gym.
Darkwave, that makes sense and sort of where I am as far as a change in mindset. In addition to figuring out how we live with the virus, I think there needs to be the understanding that not all areas are going to be the same as far as restrictions.