The COVID-19 Wild West Thread (Read 486 times)

JMac11


Taper Czar

     

    While the trials may be set to run 24 months there are typically interim data readouts built in which would allow submission to the FDA quicker if....IF...robust efficacy is evident.  Interim readouts typically lack the full statistical power designed into the trial so the effect must be stronger than what would need to be seen at the end to call it a positive result.  Given the comments made about news yet this year, I expect there is some sort of interim readout.  But I haven't definitively seen it in the description of the trial.

     

    It makes sense: the smaller your sample size, the wider your confidence interval is, so it makes sense they need stronger evidence earlier on than if they waited. The USA is still a disaster at 45K cases a day, so it feels like they should get their sample done quicker, although I have wondered whether there is anti-selection here and the people who sign up for vaccine trials are less likely to be exposed to the virus (e.g. they actually believe the virus is real and aren't walking around without masks on)

    5K: 16:42 (9/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

     

    Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 


    Country Fried

      The Moderna trial has a recruitment target of 30,000 subjects. Subjects are likely to be biased in the way you suggest JMac, but are generally being drawn from high risk exposure groups such as healthcare providers. That may balance out the bias.


      Feeling the growl again

        The Moderna trial has a recruitment target of 30,000 subjects. Subjects are likely to be biased in the way you suggest JMac, but are generally being drawn from high risk exposure groups such as healthcare providers. That may balance out the bias.

         

        Inclusion criteria - "Participants who are at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as adults whose locations or circumstances put them at appreciable risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.".  I don't claim to know exactly how they are applying this criteria, but clearly, they are looking to bias towards people more likely to be exposed.  It makes sense.  If you don't your trial size must increase.

         

        I don't have a link but additional information I've seen today on both the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines.  Didn't want to comment prior to public disclosure.  Shipping and stability.  The Moderna vaccine can be shipped and stored at -20C, has some stability at normal vaccine refrigeration temps.  The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine must be shipped/stored at -70C with only 24 hours at typical refrigeration temps.  This presents a significant limitation for both vaccines, but for Pfizer in particular.  That sort of cold chain distribution will likely restrict vaccine administration to major institutions.  Long lines at major hospitals/centers.  Unless significant steps are taken to change the status quo in cold chain storage.

        "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

         

        I am spaniel - Crusher of Treadmills

         

        Running Problem


        Curmudgeon

          The Moderna trial has a recruitment target of 30,000 subjects. Subjects are likely to be biased in the way you suggest JMac, but are generally being drawn from high risk exposure groups such as healthcare providers. That may balance out the bias.

           

          I have found someone they should pick for the study.

           

          https://www.kolotv.com/2020/08/27/unr-med-school-state-health-lab-studying-reinfection-of-covid-19-in-washoe-county/

           

          Infected. Twice. After two negative tests. With no vaccine. Imagine the genomic data this person has.

          2020 Goal: Figure out the problem.


          Interval Junkie --Nobby

            Chicago runs a train to northern Indiana called the South Shore Line.  There were two cars open today.  One for people with masks.  One for people without.

             

            Of course there was a lady who refused to wear a mask, but insisted on being in the mask-only car.

            2016 Goals: Lose the 10lbs I gained for not having goals

            DavePNW


              Chicago runs a train to northern Indiana called the South Shore Line.  There were two cars open today.  One for people with masks.  One for people without.

               

              Of course there was a lady who refused to wear a mask, but insisted on being in the mask-only car.

               

              People are the worst. But nothing anyone does surprises me anymore. In any case, I wonder why the trains don't have a mask requirement on all cars. It seems most public transport does, although not sure how strictly enforced.

              Dave


              Elite Jogger

                Chicago runs a train to northern Indiana called the South Shore Line.  There were two cars open today.  One for people with masks.  One for people without.

                 

                Of course there was a lady who refused to wear a mask, but insisted on being in the mask-only car.

                 

                  So is this a typical example of what happens in the US?  Why would there be an option in the first place?

                5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)


                Arrogant Bastard....Ale

                   

                    So is this a typical example of what happens in the US?  Why would there be an option in the first place?

                   

                  'cause we got rights! 'Merica!  YEAH!

                  *sarcasm*

                  darkwave


                  Mother of Cats

                     

                      So is this a typical example of what happens in the US?  Why would there be an option in the first place?

                     

                    Every state has its own requirements.  In some states the masking requirement is more rigorous, in other states less.

                    Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                     

                    And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                    Teresadfp


                    One day at a time

                      Maine is strict about the rules, but there is almost ALWAYS that one person in the grocery store who thinks he/she doesn't need to wear a mask.  It's so hard for me not to go up to them and say, "What are you THINKING?"  Ack.

                      DavePNW


                         

                        Every state has its own requirements.  In some states the masking requirement is more rigorous, in other states less.

                         

                        If I'm not mistaken, I think his question was more about why she'd have the option to go into the mask-only car with no mask, when there is a no-mask option. So my answer below is based on that.

                         

                         

                          So is this a typical example of what happens in the US?  Why would there be an option in the first place?

                         

                        Because America is a place where you go to a restaurant, they give you a menu, and you order whatever the hell you want regardless of what's on the menu. And they're expected to serve it to you with a smile and act like it's no problem at all, only profusely apologizing if they don't have the ingredients in the kitchen. In which case you can act irritated and give them a poor Yelp review.

                        Dave

                        darkwave


                        Mother of Cats

                           

                          If I'm not mistaken, I think his question was more about why she'd have the option to go into the mask-only car with no mask, when there is a no-mask option. So my answer below is based on that.

                           

                          Ah - I read it as "why would they give you a choice of a mask or mask free car"?  In the DC area, if you are going to ride Metro, you wear a mask. No mask-free cars available.

                           

                          But not wearing a mask on a mask car is like going into the quiet car on Amtrak and starting to talk loudly on your cell phone.

                          Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                           

                          And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                          DavePNW


                             

                            Ah - I read it as "why would they give you a choice of a mask or mask free car"?  In the DC area, if you are going to ride Metro, you wear a mask. No mask-free cars available.

                             

                            But not wearing a mask on a mask car is like going into the quiet car on Amtrak and starting to talk loudly on your cell phone.

                             

                            Which Americans will do!

                             

                            But yeah I'm surprised there is an option on public transportation anywhere.

                            Dave

                            dhuffman63


                            Trails

                              Until all this I never realized how stupid and selfish some people can be.


                              MoBramExam

                                Maine is strict about the rules, but there is almost ALWAYS that one person in the grocery store who thinks he/she doesn't need to wear a mask.  It's so hard for me not to go up to them and say, "What are you THINKING?"  Ack.

                                 

                                Perhaps they were medically exempt?