The COVID-19 Wild West Thread (Read 551 times)

rlopez


     

    My point was more around the fact that Trent was announcing that the confidence intervals are wide for overall effectiveness and this was just a ploy to boost stock prices is not correct.

     

    Actually man, he didn't really say that. Trent said it was "just an attention grab" (which it definitely is) that had the side-effect of raising the stock price. He did not predict causality. You added that.


    I Like Waffles

      That's some crystal ball shit though, and why these trials aren't the end all.

       

      those who have any potential side effect risk should not take the vaccine right away

      Trent


      Goodnight Monkey

        The Pfizer and Moderna trials are scheduled for 24 months. Based on assessment done before the trials, the study statisticians expect that it will take 24 months to assess effectiveness versus a placebo. We are still just 3 months in. Any findings released before 24 months either are unexpectedly dramatic such that the DSMB will recommend early study closure (which has not happened) -OR- are simply unhelpful, statistically unreliable peeks.

        rlopez


          Are there any other mongers besides fish, fear, and cuca?


          an amazing likeness

            Are there any other mongers besides fish, fear, and cuca?

             

            ...there's always Mongo

            Acceptable at a dance, invaluable in a shipwreck.


            I Like Waffles

               

              Are there any other mongers besides fish, fear, and cuca?

              rlopez


                Also warmonger

                Running Problem


                Problem Child

                  Are there any other mongers besides fish, fear, and cuca?

                   

                  war.

                  2020 Goal: Figure out the problem.

                  JMac11


                  Taper Czar

                     

                    Actually man, he didn't really say that. Trent said it was "just an attention grab" (which it definitely is)

                     

                    Announcing incredibly good effectiveness results with a high probability due to sample size on a global pandemic that is killing thousands of people daily is an "attention grab?" Interesting point of view.

                     

                    And Trent - there is no timetable for confidence intervals. It's just a matter of positive cases. If we were South Korea, we would need a decade to determine the effectiveness of this vaccine. They estimated that 24 month timeline off of a guess of how many exposure they would have to assess. But when you have 100K+ infected daily, timetables don't matter. I really think you need a refresher on statistics if you're going to keep saying things like confidence intervals and "statistically unreliable" because it's just not true. People look to you as a source of information because of your background and right now it's just not correct.

                    5K: 16:42 (9/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                     

                    Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 

                    Trent


                    Goodnight Monkey

                      OK. I'm glad you think that.

                       

                      I really think you need a refresher on statistics

                       

                      However, I am not as glad that you think somehow urgency somehow influences mathematics.

                        A press release is, by definition, an attention grab.

                        Runners run.

                        rlopez


                          A press release is, by definition, an attention grab.

                           

                          Interesting point of view.

                          JMac11


                          Taper Czar

                            OK. I'm glad you think that.

                             

                             

                            However, I am not as glad that you think somehow urgency somehow influences mathematics.

                             

                            That's exactly the point! Time has no influence on the math, and the math given the amount of positive cases indicates that the lower bound of the confidence interval currently is 80%+.

                            5K: 16:42 (9/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                             

                            Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 

                            Trent


                            Goodnight Monkey

                              the lower bound of the confidence interval currently is 80%+.

                               

                              So you think you can calculate a CI without any actual data? Really?

                               

                              Methinks you need a refresher on statistics.

                              JMac11


                              Taper Czar

                                They gave you all the data you need to come up with a good CI estimate. We can argue about what the number is, but to say that the numbers being presented are "statistically unreliable", that this is just an "attention grab", and that the CI are "way too wide" to make anything of this news is categorically false.

                                 

                                This is the Wild Wild West so I guess that will be the last comment on this, we can just continue with whatever we feel like and not worry about what the facts are.

                                5K: 16:42 (9/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                                 

                                Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run