The COVID-19 Wild West Thread (Read 572 times)

rlopez


     

    United States had 418,000 military and civilian deaths.

    The United States population was 132,164,569

    Soooo.....0.316% of the united states died because of World War 2.

     

    275,643 people have died in the united states with a positive COVID 19 test. (}actually its 2249,570 according to the CDC website. Bing has it wrong. WEIRD)

    328,240,000 is apparently the population now.

    Soooo.....0.0839%. If you go off the CDC numbers it's more like 0.07603%

    If we use the CDC website we have.....0.802% of the population dead FROM ALL CAUSES as of December 2, 2020

     

    Almost there. Only need about 400% increase in the number of deaths to approach World War two level deaths. Unless of course you look at just the number of deaths in which case we are at about 66%. 99% of the United states HASN'T died. Ninety. Nine.

     

    Damn numbers being dicks.

     

    I am not going to argue with you because you will just go in a flat circle to continue to argue. I wasn't talking about percentages, I was talking about raw numbers. Say what you wish about how different/similar it is, I don't give a fuck.

     

    I literally said "in raw numbers", so waving your finger at me about how percentages work just kind of fulfills that thing where you seem to have to argue with everybody about everything every single time.

    JMac11


    Taper Czar

       

      For the United States -- this is, simply, not true. It is not even close to being accurate.  Link to accurate data.

       

       

      They don't break down 80+ in this, but the majority of the deaths are 75+ in this data page. Would be hard to say that's "not even close to being accurate".

       

      MTA: to be clear, doesn't mean there aren't significant risks for others, even those that don't eventually die from it.

      5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

       

      Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 


      an amazing likeness

         

        They don't break down 80+ in this, but the majority of the deaths are 75+ in this data page. Would be hard to say that's "not even close to being accurate".

        ...

         

        It is 58.2% for ages 75+.

         

        58% is not close to 80%.  The delta between these two numbers is nearly 32%.

        Acceptable at a dance, invaluable in a shipwreck.


        an amazing likeness

          ...

          Acceptable at a dance, invaluable in a shipwreck.

          JMac11


          Taper Czar

            Maybe I'm misinterpreting what Mikkey said, but I thought he meant the majority of people dying from it are 80+ years old.

            5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

             

            Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 

            Running Problem


            Problem Child

               

              I am not going to argue with you because you will just go in a flat circle to continue to argue. I wasn't talking about percentages, I was talking about raw numbers. Say what you wish about how different/similar it is, I don't give a fuck.

               

              I literally said "in raw numbers", so waving your finger at me about how percentages work just kind of fulfills that thing where you seem to have to argue with everybody about everything every single time.

               

              Amazing how when there is over twice as many people alive it's easier to hit 418,000 deaths. Percentages are at least equal.

              Keep not giving a fuck. It's your MO.

              Maybe if you gave a fuck about the percentage you'd realize how bullshit it is to compare deaths of COVID 19 to a war. It's like me saying I ran 26.2 miles just like Kipchoge so we're practically the same. Regardless of finish time. The raw numbers say 26.2 and 26.2. No circle required. Just blunt facts presented in a different form.

               

              Either way I wish Joe Biden wasn't able to fix this in the first 100 days. It's really going to put a damper on things when I have to go back to doing things like we did in 2018. I like not getting together with family, not having to share elevators, not having people want to get near me, not having to go into my office to work, and not having anywhere to go so my vacation time racks up. If COVID 19 does get cured it's gong to make 2021 REALLY suck. although....maybe I could run a race or two if they're still an option financially.

              Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.


              an amazing likeness

                Maybe I'm misinterpreting what Mikkey said, but I thought he meant the majority of people dying from it are 80+ years old.

                 

                Valid point.

                Acceptable at a dance, invaluable in a shipwreck.

                JMac11


                Taper Czar

                  Just to close the loop on the efficacy of the drug: I chimed in here because the implication that somehow this data is "statistically unrealiabe" is so wrong that it is fake news and given it's coming from a doctor, I figured people may believe that.

                   

                  I found a link that I think actually explains this very well, and in relatively simple terms. Note this is from a statistical data scientist and the director of Biostatistics at UPenn, so as reliable as it gets:

                   

                  https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/more-great-news-on-vaccines-moderna-vaccine-94-5-efficacy-and-prevented-severe-disease

                   

                  The most important part of this on why this is enough of a sample size. Put simply, the resuts were so good that the probability of this being a random sample size error at a 75% efficacy rate is less than 1 in 200:

                   

                  I noted that that even those these sample sizes may seem small, they are not in this context, and the p-value for demonstrating efficacy is vanishingly small (p<0.00000000000000001), and the 95% confidence interval for efficacy was 80.8%-96.2%, both using basic binomial calculations.

                   

                  So please everyone, don't believe this is some statistically unreliable data set. It's actually an incredible success story for both Pfizer and Moderna (AZ, not so much, what a disaster that trial was).

                   

                  We obviously do not know how long the vaccine lasts, or whether there are long term side effects, which is why the trials will continue. But they're not continuing because they don't know if the vaccine works. It does.

                  5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                   

                  Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 

                  Running Problem


                  Problem Child

                    The average age of those who have died from coronavirus in England and Wales since the start of the pandemic is 82.4 years old.

                    Using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), researchers at the University of Oxford found that the median age of a Covid-19 fatality was slightly higher than the median age of those who died of other causes over the same period, which was 81.5.


                    The researchers also found that about six in every 1,000 infections now result in death, down from about 30 in every 1,000 in June.

                     

                    Experts at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford analysed ONS data on weekly deaths from Covid-19 from the start of this year to the end of September. These deaths are recorded in narrow age bands, starting with infants aged under one year and children aged one to four years old, and then in five-year age bands up to the age of 89 with a final band for those aged over 90.

                    The ONS said that an analysis of raw data using individual ages would produce a “very similar” figure.

                     

                    ONS data shows that 22,301 people aged over 85 died of Covid-19 between December 28 last year and September 25 this year, and 17,096 people aged between 75 and 84. The figure decreased with age bands, falling to 7,803 people aged 65 to 74, 6,069 aged from 45 to 64, 581 aged between 15 and 44, four aged between one and 14, and two aged under one. A quarter of older people who died were suffering from advanced dementia.

                    Campaigners who oppose another stringent nationwide lockdown have used the figures to argue that restrictions should only be placed on the oldest age groups, while younger people should be allowed to retain their freedoms. However, more than a third of patients admitted to intensive care with the virus in the past month were in their forties and fifties.

                    Despite hopes that the most recent wave of cases has primarily affected young people and students, and would therefore lead to fewer hospital cases and deaths, there were 856 people in critical care last month.

                     

                    One in ten patients in critical care were men in their forties, and 15 per cent men in their fifties. Just 5 per cent of all patients receiving critical care were over the age of 80. Nearly half of patients in intensive care were either obese or severely obese.

                    Dr Jason Oke, of the CEBM, said that he could not comment on what the government should do with the estimates he had compiled, but added: “It’s pretty clear and uncontroversial to say that the people at the very highest risk are the very elderly and the risk in younger people is really quite small.”

                    ‘He kept saying “this is so unfair” ’
                    Joseph Michael Gallagher, 75, known as Mick, was an active man and was renovating his daughter’s garage a few weeks ago. Shortly before that he had fitted a new engine in his van.

                    When an elderly neighbour in Scunthorpe died of non Covid-related causes last month, her son came up to sort out her affairs and Mr Gallagher and his wife, Lesley, invited him in for a cup of tea to offer their condolences. Days later the man contacted the couple to say he had tested positive for Covid-19. A few days later Mr and Mrs Gallagher developed symptoms.

                     

                    “Mick was struggling for breath and they rang an ambulance,” said his son-in-law, David Levitt, 46. “They put an oxygen hood over him and moved him into intensive care. But gradually they reduced the amount of oxygen he needed and everything was getting better.”

                    Doctors then discovered that his coronavirus treatment had aggravated an aneurysm that Mr Gallagher had suffered in a blood vessel years earlier and caused it to leak.

                    Mr Gallagher had been able to continue as normal while the condition was monitored. He was described as “fighting fit”.

                     

                    “The doctors said there was nothing they could do for him,” Mr Levitt said. “The Covid had taken too much of a toll on his lungs so they couldn’t operate. He kept saying: ‘This is so unfair.’ He was gobsmacked. It was so heartbreaking, he was such a lovely man and would do anything for anyone.”

                    Mr Gallagher died on September 28, with Covid-19, his aneurysm and pneumonia contracted as a result of his Covid-19 diagnosis cited as the causes of death. He left three daughters and seven grandchildren.

                     

                    Number of deaths involving COVID-19 by sex and age

                     

                    Male

                     

                     

                    Female

                     

                     

                    Under 1 year

                    2

                    0

                    1 to 14 years

                    2

                    2

                    15 to 44 years

                    353

                    228

                    45 to 64 years

                    3,328

                    1,741

                    65 to 74 years

                    5,043

                    2,760

                    75 to 84 years

                    10,144

                    6,952

                    85 years and over

                    10,234

                    12,067

                    England and Wales, registered between 28 December 2019 and 25 September 2020

                     

                     

                    Source: ONS

                     

                    here you go.

                    Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

                    Running Problem


                    Problem Child

                       

                       

                      We obviously do not know how long the vaccine lasts, or whether there are long term side effects, which is why the trials will continue. But they're not continuing because they don't know if the vaccine works. It does.

                       

                      Trials? The UK is paving the way for the United States

                       

                      Britain OKs Pfizer vaccine and will begin shots within days (apnews.com)

                       

                       

                      Britain became the first country in the world to authorize a rigorously tested COVID-19 vaccine Wednesday and could be dispensing shots within days — a historic step toward eventually ending the outbreak that has killed more than 1.4 million people around the globe.

                      In giving the go-ahead for emergency use of the vaccine developed by American drugmaker Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech, Britain vaulted past the United States by at least a week. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is not scheduled to consider the vaccine until Dec. 10.

                      “This is a day to remember, frankly, in a year to forget,” British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.

                       

                      The announcement sets the stage for the biggest vaccination campaign in British history and came just ahead of what experts are warning will be a long, dark winter, with the coronavirus surging to epic levels in recent weeks in the U.S. and Europe.

                      Officials cautioned that several tough months still lie ahead even in Britain, given the monumental task of inoculating large swaths of the population. Because of the limited initial supply, the first shots will be reserved for those most in danger, namely nursing home residents, the elderly and health care workers.

                      Britain’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency recommended the vaccine after clinical trials involving tens of thousands of volunteers showed it was 95% effective and turned up no serious side effects. The vaccine is still considered experimental while final testing is done.

                      “This is an unprecedented piece of science,” given that the vaccine was authorized less than a year after the virus was discovered, said David Harper, senior consulting fellow in global health at the Chatham House think tank.

                      Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared that the “searchlights of science” had picked out the “invisible enemy,” which has been blamed for close to 60,000 deaths in Britain. He said that in developing the vaccine, scientists had performed “biological jujitsu” by turning the virus on itself.

                      Other countries aren’t far behind: Regulators in not only the U.S. but the European Union and Canada also are vetting the Pfizer vaccine along with a shot made by Moderna. British and Canadian regulators are also considering a vaccine made by AstraZeneca and Oxford University.

                       

                      Amid growing concern that Americans will greet vaccines with skepticism, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Britain’s decision “should give Americans additional confidence in the quality of such a vaccine.” The virus has killed more than 270,000 in the U.S. On Wednesday, the head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention signed off on an expert panel’s recommendation that health care workers and nursing home residents be the first to be vaccinated when shots become available.

                      Hancock said Britain will begin receiving the first shipment of 800,000 doses from Belgium within days, and people will start getting the shots as soon as it arrives. Two doses three weeks apart are required. The country expects to receive millions of doses by the end of this year, Hancock said, though the exact number will depend on how fast it can be manufactured and checked for quality.

                      BioNTech, which owns the vaccine, said it has so far signed deals to supply 570 million doses worldwide in 2021, with options to deliver 600 million more. It hopes to supply at least 1.3 billion in 2021.

                      That is only a fraction of what will be needed as public health officials try to vaccinate much of the world’s population. Experts have said several vaccines will be required to quickly end the pandemic that has infected more than 64 million people globally.

                      In Britain, the first shots will go to nursing home residents and those who care for them, followed by everyone over 80 and health care workers. From there, the program will be expanded as the supply increases, with the vaccine offered roughly on the basis of age groups, starting with the oldest people.

                      Amid the burst of optimism, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla warned governments against any immediate move to relax restrictions and reopen their economies.

                      “The time that we will have to go back to normality is not far away,” he said. “But it is definitely not now.”

                      Despite the speed with which they approved the vaccine, and the intense political pressure surrounding the worldwide race to solve the crisis, British regulators insisted “no corners have been cut” during the review process.

                      The MHRA made its recommendation after a so-called rolling review that allowed it to assess information about the vaccine as it came in, starting back in October.

                      “The safety of the public will always come first,” said Dr. June Raine, the agency’s chief executive. “And I emphasize again that this recommendation has only been given by the MHRA following the most rigorous scientific assessment of every piece of data.”

                      Getting that message to the public will be critical if any vaccination program is to be successful. Some people are worried about getting any vaccine, never mind a new one.

                      “But I think once they understand and see everyone else having it without hesitation, I think you’ll find that people will go and have it,” Jacqueline Roubians, a 76-year-old retired nurse, said at Brixton Market in London. “People are dying of COVID, so you make that decision: Do you want to die or do you want the vaccine?”

                      In addition to the huge logistical challenges of distributing the vaccines, the Pfizer-BioNTech one must be stored and shipped at ultra-cold temperatures of around minus 70 degrees Celsius (minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit).

                      Pfizer said it has developed shipping containers that use dry ice and GPS-enabled sensors will allow the company to track each shipment and ensure it stays cold.

                      Every country has different rules for determining when an experimental vaccine is safe and effective enough to use. China and Russia have offered different vaccines to their citizens before they had gone through large-scale, late-stage testing.

                      Hours after Britain’s announcement, Russian President Vladimir Putin, not to be outdone, ordered the start of a large-scale COVID-19 vaccination campaign by late next week, with doctors and teachers to be first in line to receive the Sputnik V shot, whose name was inspired by the 1957 satellite that was one of Moscow’s proudest technical achievements.

                      The Russian vaccine won regulatory approval in August but has yet to complete advanced studies of its effectiveness and safety. Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said more than 100,000 people in Russia have been given the shots.

                      Still to be determined is whether the Pfizer-BioNTech shots prevent people from spreading the virus when they have no symptoms. Another question is how long protection lasts.

                      The vaccine also has been tested in only a small number of children, none younger than 12, and there’s no information on its effects in pregnant women.

                      Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

                         

                        Amazing how when there is over twice as many people alive it's easier to hit 418,000 deaths. Percentages are at least equal.

                        Keep not giving a fuck. It's your MO.

                        Maybe if you gave a fuck about the percentage you'd realize how bullshit it is to compare deaths of COVID 19 to a war. It's like me saying I ran 26.2 miles just like Kipchoge so we're practically the same. Regardless of finish time. The raw numbers say 26.2 and 26.2. No circle required. Just blunt facts presented in a different form.

                         

                        Either way I wish Joe Biden wasn't able to fix this in the first 100 days. It's really going to put a damper on things when I have to go back to doing things like we did in 2018. I like not getting together with family, not having to share elevators, not having people want to get near me, not having to go into my office to work, and not having anywhere to go so my vacation time racks up. If COVID 19 does get cured it's gong to make 2021 REALLY suck. although....maybe I could run a race or two if they're still an option financially.

                         

                        If one wants to compare real rates of death, one also needs to consider the amount of time.  If we do the math US population for WW2 was about 140 million and lasted 45 months.  With 418,000 military deaths during WW2 that works out to 66.35 deaths per million people per month.  If we look at Covid-19 deaths we have 275,000 with population of 330 million over 10 months or 83.33 deaths per million people per month.  Seems like a pretty apt comparison to me. But, hey as you said "it's just the flu"...


                        Ray

                         

                          The true pandemic death toll in the US is more like 345,000.

                           

                          https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

                           

                          mta: and counting.

                          Runners run.

                          Running Problem


                          Problem Child

                            The true pandemic death toll in the US is more like 345,000.

                             

                            https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

                             

                            mta: and counting.

                            Insert comment/graphs/figures/scientific articles/internet links about the world being over populated and the ramifications it causes.

                             

                             

                            If one wants to compare real rates of death, one also needs to consider the amount of time.  ...
                            during WW2 that works out to 66.35 deaths per million people per month. ...

                            Covid-19 deaths 83.33 deaths per million people per month.  Seems like a pretty apt comparison to me. But, hey as you said "it's just the flu"...

                             

                            Hey Paul Harvey...I haven't said it is just the flu from my limited recollection of events (not about to scroll every page to look at every post I've ever made). You're confusing me with a large group of people and I don't appreciate it. Maybe you can show me where I said it was just the flu. I actually haven't heard anything about flu season beyond "get your flu shot" and then showing less than 20% of people get the flu shot. I'm just presenting the data from a one sided view and unequally so it can counter a point being made. You're over here with "the rest of the story."

                            There really isn't another way to compare it to counter this that I can think of. Deaths per million is pretty fair even if I say "well but we have so many more millions" because we also have so many more deaths...per million.

                             

                            It's just unfortunate, for personal reason, that COVID 19 is going to be solved in time for July 4, 2021 fireworks. I was really looking forward to another year of working from home, lockdowns, social distancing, masks in public, and severly restricted capacities everywhere because people smell, and have bad breath, and COVID 19 has fix society having to deal with it. Nothing like Meth Mouth coming up to ask you a question about 3 inches from your face. Ever been able to identify exactly what cigarette someone smokes based off the smell? I have.

                            Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

                              Hey, am I the only one who thinks Congress is just stalling on the CV19 stimulus relief package?

                               

                              It has the appearance of a backroom deal to try to put it off until the pandemic is over, but have a public performance of "we're trying as hard as we can, but it's that darn other side stopping us!"

                               

                              I suppose they're hoping to save money by not passing it. That $1200 back in June didn't go too far for people who's employment was furloughed. And the emergency unemployment payments stopped months ago. Once the eviction protections expire, we're going to see a lot of people 6 months in arrears on their rent/mortgage out on the street.

                              55-59 age group  -  University of Oregon alumni  -  Irreverent and Annoying

                              Half Crazy K 2.0


                                Hey, am I the only one who thinks Congress is just stalling on the CV19 stimulus relief package?

                                 

                                It has the appearance of a backroom deal to try to put it off until the pandemic is over, but have a public performance of "we're trying as hard as we can, but it's that darn other side stopping us!"

                                 

                                I suppose they're hoping to save money by not passing it. That $1200 back in June didn't go too far for people who's employment was furloughed. And the emergency unemployment payments stopped months ago. Once the eviction protections expire, we're going to see a lot of people 6 months in arrears on their rent/mortgage out on the street.

                                 

                                Yes.

                                 

                                The $600 unemployment ended July 31 (I think). There was then a short term executive order of an additional $400 per week (300 fed, state supposed to match $100).  I was screaming at the TV when certain politicans whined that the $400 was not enough (which quite possibly it wasn't). However, $400 was still far more than the $0 that people were getting at the time.