Forums >Racing>Goal time for 10K next Saturday.
Just in case anyone wants to help me tweak my strategy for my upcoming 10K next Saturday I think I'm about set on going out at a 7:10 pace and seeing what I have left at the end, but I might could try to push it going out at a 7:05 pace and try to hold on to that.
This was my big goal race last fall when I was trying to beat my age in a 10K and I made my goal with 9 seconds to spare (44:51). This year I don't really have a big goal time in mind, but I would like to do it faster than last year.
Pretty much the same schedule leading up to the race both years, followed the same training plan, etc. My July and August mileage is within a mile of each other both years.
One workout isn't a great predictor I'm sure, but this morning I ran a 6 X 800m interval set with 400m recoveries and I thought I would compare it to the same interval set that I ran last year at the same time. Last year is on the left and this year is on the right.
Last year was actually run in nicer weather, 64 degrees and 56% humidity last year compared to 68 degrees and 81% humidity this morning. Overall the average pace of the fast intervals was 6:52 last year and 6:44 this year. My recovery and warmup and cool down were also much faster this year although I really don't try to shoot for any particular pace on that, just try to keep it easy.
Last year for my goal 10K race I ran very even splits right at 7:15 pace for the first 6 miles and then picked it up for the last .2 miles and felt like I may have left a few seconds on the table.
Not really wanting to go out and blow up, but am wondering what I could do if I nailed it. Really don't think I could average under a 7:00 pace, but think 7:05 pace may be doable.
Think an A goal of breaking 44 minutes is about right?
Thanks in advance for any input.
Nathan
Age: 50 Weight: 224 Height: 6'3" (Goal weight 195)
Current PR's: Mara 3:14:36* (2017); HM 1:36:13 (2017); 10K 43:59 (2014); 5K 21:12 (2016)
delicate flower
FWIW, your interval paces are very similar to mine but I take longer recoveries. I ran a 10K a couple of weeks ago in 42:52 (6:55 pace). Weather was about 60 degrees with 95% humidity. I faded slightly the last two miles but I don't think a different race strategy would have ended with a different result.
I'm not one for offering advice, but I think your estimates are accurate. I also think 7:00 pace is doable if you nail it.
<3
an amazing likeness
Just reacting to your 2 proposed options...if you're goal is to PR, take the 7:10 option and get yourself to 5mi to lock in the PR. Use what's left in the tank to either bring it home from there, or reach for more. I find it all too common to get into a fade in a 10K if you burn too hard in the opening 5K -- that's just my experience, so I try to run them as even splits through 5mi.
Acceptable at a dance, invaluable in a shipwreck.
I don't know, I'm no expert, but please report back after the race. I think we are pretty close in speed, your PR's are slightly faster than mine across the board, and I'm pretty curious what kind of 10k I could run right now. I might do one in a couple weeks, but it would be 4 weeks before a marathon, so probably will not be at my best. But I was already thinking along the lines of your 7:10 option.
Dave
Thanks for the input. Especially nice to hear from folks who are similar to me in the speed (or lack thereof) department.
I'm for sure getting closer to my potential at my current level of training and my PR's aren't coming as easily as they were.
I think I've talked myself into going out at a 7:05 pace and seeing what happens. That's right where I think I am fitness wise. If I get to mile 5 and am still feeling good I will try to pick it up, but not sure I would be able to pick it up enough to make up the 25 seconds to break the sub 7:00 pace for the entire race. But not sure I could run an even split 6:59 pace either.
I may let weather be the deciding factor, if it is a perfect day I might shoot for the 6:59 pace and if I blow up I blow up. If the weather is a little iffy I think I will go out more conservatively.
Thanks again for the input.
It sounds like you're asking "what pace should I go out at" rather than "what's a reasonable goal". If you can tell the difference between 7:10 pace and 7:05 pace when you're racing a 10K, you're a better man than me - there's a 10 second range in your 6 x 800 paces, and you were running on a track. I prefer to pace by perceived effort based on workouts and prior races.
It's hard to base much on a single workout without knowing how hard it was and your pace for longer intervals/tempo runs, but I would note that your average pace is 10-15 second faster than your 5K PR pace. How recent is your 5K PR? Do you think you could run a 5K at that pace? If so, and/or if you've put in the miles and workouts this summer, I think you should feel good about chasing 44:00 if the conditions are good. Good luck!
Yeah, I guess I am mixing it up a little between what pace to go out at and what a reasonable goal would be.
The 10 second range in my intervals is because I am running them with 1 minute audio cues notifying me my current split pace. I'm just running out on the road and my phone beeps and tells me to run fast and then after 1/2 mile it beeps and tells me to run slow. The 1 minute audio cues can fall anywhere in there so sometimes I might get 3 notifications of what my current split pace is and sometimes I might only get 2 notifications. It's hard to fall into a rhythm and lock into a pace that quickly for me. If you actually look at the graphs, generally I start out the interval too fast and then slow as my audio cues tell me I'm going too fast, by the time I get locked into the pace the interval is over.
I have the audio cues set for the 1 minute intervals during my races too, but on those I seem to be able to lock in the pace much better. On my last 10K race I tried to go out at a 7:15 pace and my splits were 7:14, 7:15, 7:14, 7:14, 7:15, 7:18 and the last bit in 6:27. It is a flat out and back course with 1 turn so about as easy of a course as you can get.
I couldn't tell you the different between a 7:05 pace and a 7:10 pace either, but my body probably can by the end of 6 miles at those paces.
My 5K PR is almost a year old now. Not sure I could run a 5K at 6:44 pace or not, maybe if I had a great day. My 2 mile PR is a 6:45 pace and that is from last November on a fairly difficult course but in cool weather. Being a bigger guy temperatures have a big impact on me.
Maybe I should go out a 6:59 and if I blow up I blow up.
If you can tell the difference between 7:10 pace and 7:05 pace when you're racing a 10K, you're a better man than me -
Me too. I always find it crazy when folks suggest "going out at x : 05 vs. x: 00" I always wonder who can execute that over some varying elevation, and who knows what weather or race condition or competition?
Come all you no-hopers, you jokers and roguesWe're on the road to nowhere, let's find out where it goes
Yeah, I guess I am mixing it up a little between what pace to go out at and what a reasonable goal would be. The 10 second range in my intervals is because I am running them with 1 minute audio cues notifying me my current split pace. I'm just running out on the road and my phone beeps and tells me to run fast and then after 1/2 mile it beeps and tells me to run slow. The 1 minute audio cues can fall anywhere in there so sometimes I might get 3 notifications of what my current split pace is and sometimes I might only get 2 notifications. It's hard to fall into a rhythm and lock into a pace that quickly for me. If you actually look at the graphs, generally I start out the interval too fast and then slow as my audio cues tell me I'm going too fast, by the time I get locked into the pace the interval is over. I have the audio cues set for the 1 minute intervals during my races too, but on those I seem to be able to lock in the pace much better. On my last 10K race I tried to go out at a 7:15 pace and my splits were 7:14, 7:15, 7:14, 7:14, 7:15, 7:18 and the last bit in 6:27. It is a flat out and back course with 1 turn so about as easy of a course as you can get. I couldn't tell you the different between a 7:05 pace and a 7:10 pace either, but my body probably can by the end of 6 miles at those paces. My 5K PR is almost a year old now. Not sure I could run a 5K at 6:44 pace or not, maybe if I had a great day. My 2 mile PR is a 6:45 pace and that is from last November on a fairly difficult course but in cool weather. Being a bigger guy temperatures have a big impact on me. Maybe I should go out a 6:59 and if I blow up I blow up.
Get thee to a track if you're running 800m or shorter intervals. A GPS just isn't good enough for 800m or less. And, IMO, one does need to be able to lock into a pace and know what it is. Another option that I use is to mark off 1600m on the road you do these on (unobtrusively, of course) in 200m increments and use that for pace feedback and for recovery jogs. No need for GPS auditory cues. Personally, I find that once you do a repeat or two the pace becomes ingrained and I can hit it the rest of the workout without any feedback at all.
I think you have a shot at 44:00.
Well, I felt like I pushed it about as hard as I could and snuck in under the buzzer to go sub 44 minutes. Official time was 43:58.3.
Cool and rainy for the last couple days, race time temperature was 47 degrees, 86% humidity, wind ENE at 7 mph. Heavy overcast, but not raining. Pretty close to perfect race conditions.
Got there a tiny bit late and my warmup was a bit short with just over a mile of easy running with just a couple short strides mixed in. Made a pit stop right before the race and barely got in line and was still messing with my Runkeeper app when the gun went off.
Went out and settled into a 7:05 pace which felt manageable, but by mile 2 I was starting to breath harder than normal. This training cycle I spent a lot of time on intervals and hardly any time on tempos so I actually hadn't been breathing hard for an extended period in a while so I was hoping that it wouldn't end up being an issue. Legs were feeling good and other than breathing a little harder than I expected to be, I decided I could stick with it and tried to keep a 7:05 pace for the first 3 miles. Miles 1, 2 and 3 clicked off at 7:06, 7:07 and 7:05.
At the turn around I was breathing about the same and legs still felt decent so I tried to pick it up a little bit. If I pushed too hard I could feel it and I would find myself thinking I was locked in on a solid pace and then my runkeeper audio cues would tell me I was actually slowing down so I would have to push it back up again. Miles 4 and 5 clicked of at 7:03 and 7:03. I thought I picked it up on mile 6 a bit and my audio cues kept telling me 6:5X split pace for pretty much the entire mile, but I must have slowed a little right at the end and it ticked up to a 7:01 split.
With .2 miles to go I tried to pick it up again and felt that I did to some extent, but I was running out of steam and I wasn't going to catch the guy ahead of me but I still needed to finish strong to make sure I ended up sub 44 minutes. I tried to break into a sprint for the last 100 yards, but it just wasn't happening. I was hurting and didn't have much left in the tank. My wife said that I looked really tight. The clock was ticking down and I gave everything I had and crossed with 43:5X on the clock! For a second I thought I could beat my time from last year by a full minute (last year was 44:51), but I just didn't get there.
I was gassed after I passed the line and it took me about 10 seconds to get my GPS stopped so my GPS splits for the last bit aren't correct. I took 10 seconds off that last split duration and that would calculate out to a 6:40 pace for the last .24 miles which seems about right.
Here's the splits. Very limited elevation gain or loss throughout the whole course. The biggest change is a gradual 25' drop and then back up at about the 2.5 mile mark going out and 3.5 mile mark coming back. Other than that it is pretty close to what most would consider pancake flat.
Not sure I left much out there on this one. Felt like I paced it just about perfect and those last few miles I kept thinking I was pushing it up and then my audio cues would tell me that I really wasn't so I would try to push it up again. This seemed to repeat itself from about mile 4 on in. I would push the pace up to 6:5X and then the next audio cue would tell me I had dropped back to 7:0X so I would push it back up, rinse repeat.
Thanks for the input and advice. Don't think I have a 6:59 pace 10K in me right now even with perfect weather. Maybe that needs to be my goal for next years race.
My wife and 7 year old son ran the 2 mile distance of the same race and both finished in the top 3 of their age groups as well. Here's the family with our medals after the race.
That's it for now. Nathan
Feeling the growl again
Sounds like success to me.
"If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does. There's your pep talk for today. Go Run." -- Slo_Hand
I am spaniel - Crusher of Treadmills
Outstanding! You picked the right pace & maintained it perfectly. I'm guessing if you went out at 7:00 you would've faded & ended up giving those seconds back & more. Well done.
not bad for mile 25
Great job Nathan, congrats!
Congratulations. It is very impressive even split for me. I can't pace so well.
5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08 (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)
Nicely done - way to nail your goal and a big PR.