Marathon goal? Need some help. (Read 950 times)

Hey all, I'm having trouble coming up with a goal for Richmond. Originally, I wanted to go under 4 hours, but after the Baltimore Half, I'm thinking I can probably do a little better. According to McMillian, my prediction time is 3:45. While I don't intend to go anywhere near that low, I am thinking that low 3:50s might be in the cards. I did 4:02:10 at MCM, but I went out too fast and totally burned out at the end. I don't want to go out too fast though ... but then again, I do want to give it my all. So, based on my HM PR and my running log ---- what is your suggestion for a goal for Richmond (my third marathon)?

BTW it's better to go out too easy than to go out too fast! If you can keep your first 20 miles at around a 9:10 pace, then kick it the last 10K, you should be able to get your 3:50 or so. MTA: that's my plan come Philly!

What Pam said.

What Perfesser said

What Daddyo said I only ran one marathon but I did walk away from that learning that I had nothing left at the end and if I would have managed to keep my pace slower at first I would have had a better shot at finishing stronger. I got overly confident and sped up too soon.

Like they all said. McMillan tends to be way too optimistic, and trying to run the pace predicts will only lead you to burn out. Take it conservatively and then pump it up later in the game.

I'm not a big fan of predictors--I say just race by feel--but the race time caluclator that Eric has built into this site is really good. If you take my best 5K from this year, 17:48 and my best Half Marathon from this year, 1:23:33, it predicts a marathon of 2:55:54. And I just ran 2:55:06. I consider that half time to be maybe a minute soft, but then my marathon time is probably 1-2 minutes soft as well. Still, that's as good predictor as I've seen. By using two races at different distances, it calculates your personal coefficient, which is more accurate than the best-case coefficient that McMillan uses.

WOW. Thanks for the reminder on this Mike! I've been using McMillan - I find it pretty accurate from 5k - half marathon. It doesn't work as well for me outside this. I just used Eric's calculator for my most recent long distance races - 4:40:44 - my marathon this weekend was 4:40:59. Holy cow! It's almost eerie!

Thanks for your advice, runner buddies I just checked out the Pace Groups for Richmond .... there is one for 3:45, and one for 4:00. Am I being a whiner (that was rhetorical ) or is that kind of weird? Normally there's a pace group for every 5 minutes around the high 3:00s/ low 4:00s. 3:45 is too fast, and 4:00 is too slow (and this porridge is too cold, etc.) ... should I just run my own race at an 8:57 pace (which is a 3:54:39 marathon) and then kick it for the last 10K if I'm feeling good?

from Eric's predictor (using my HM PR and 10K PR):

3:47:28

I think, then, shooting for a sub 3:55 is okay ( ) ... I'll run the race at a 3:55 pace, and then kick it the last 10K.

I'm not a big fan of predictors--I say just race by feel--but the race time caluclator that Eric has built into this site is really good. If you take my best 5K from this year, 17:48 and my best Half Marathon from this year, 1:23:33, it predicts a marathon of 2:55:54. And I just ran 2:55:06. I consider that half time to be maybe a minute soft, but then my marathon time is probably 1-2 minutes soft as well. Still, that's as good predictor as I've seen. By using two races at different distances, it calculates your personal coefficient, which is more accurate than the best-case coefficient that McMillan uses.

Good point, but in your case, McMillan is pretty close: McMillan Prediction from 17:48 5k --> 2:53:32 (-0.89% from actual) McMillan Prediction from 1:23:33 HM --> 2:56:12 (+0.63% from actual) Though props to the RA calculation, being only 0.46% high. If you have multiple recent races, you can further hone in your personal coefficient, as I outlined here. I think what this all speaks to is the quality of your marathon training, Mikey. McMillan's predicted quite accurately for you because you've been doing outstanding quality training for the marathon.