What is the best way to determine marathon potential? (Read 135 times)

I ran one marathon 4 years ago.  I met my goal, was satisfied, and have focused on shorter distances since then.

My friend was recruited to pace a local marathon being held 5 months from now.  I would register to run with her if I felt confident that I could finish at that pace.

What do feel is the best predictor of marathon finishing times?

For background, I've been running consistently for 6.5 years and have run about 1,800 miles each of the last two.  My weekly mileage is currently around 35.  A couple of weeks ago I did an unplanned 20 at GMP + 30 because I felt good.  My most recent 5K puts me just about there according to McMillan and I expect the next 5K will be better.

Thanks in advance for any insight you can provide.

I like a calculator such as Greg Maclin's RTE (which you can find on his website http://mymarathonpace.com) because it's adjustable for endurance (which you can proxy with mileage).  Slate has a similar calculator, but I find that choosing the setting is a bit art as well as science.

 

That said, I a) would not try to predict a marathon time from a 5k time - it's just too short a race to be reliable, and b) would not try to predict a marathon time five months in advance, when that's five months of potential training.  I definitely would not use McMillan to predict from a 5k  for a 35mpw runner.  That's just crazy optimistic.

Thank you very much.  The link appears to be a very valuable resource.  The recommended training paces I'm seeing are in line with what I've been running.

And to clarify, if I decide to register for the full I will increase my mileage accordingly.  I just wanted to indicate that I have a base to build from.

I think this says a lot. 20.3 miles at 8:33 pace on 35 mpw, and your GMP is ~8:00 pace? With 5 months of higher mileage, I think you should be able to reach that (barring injuries, etc.).

Thank you.  And I forgot that you guys could see my log here, lol.  I didn't want the goal to impact the responses so I left it out.  Yes, she is the 3:30 pacer.

 Thank you.  And I forgot that you guys could see my log here, lol.  I didn't want the goal to impact the responses so I left it out.  Yes, she is the 3:30 pacer.

Odd.  Your log is the most valuable information for answering the question.

If you did an honest 20mi (no breaks) at 8:30, you should be able to hit 8:00 after training.  Unfortunately, your log doesn't note if there were rest-periods.  However, your HM performance confirms that 8:00 for the full after training, should be possible.  And by possible, I'd say there's a high confidence.