1

choosing Marathon Race Pace based on recent race and training performance (Read 1421 times)


Impact& sport adventurer

    As an inexperienced marathon racer, I'm looking for advice in selecting my marathon race pace for ING NYC Marathon in 2+ weeks

     

    My PB marathon was my first marathon 3 years ago in 3h13. I've since done 3 Ironman and a 56k ultramarathon, but no pure marathon racing.

     

    Here are some race results/training I've done recently:

    1. PB half marathon in 1:21:32 on a slightly hilly course in 80 degrees.

    2. 4x2km at 7:05 for 2kms with 1 min rest between each.

    3. 120-130km per week at peak.

    4. Hard 22-mile progressive run starting at 7:30/mile (hilly) increasing pace throughout finishing last 2 miles at 6:45/mile (flat).

    5. Yasso 800s workout 10x800m at 2:45 (with 2:45 rest).

     

    My goal originally was sub-3 hrs, but I'm feeling faster than that.

     

    Any advice on what pace I should go out running would be great.

    PBs: 1 mile - 4:59 (2008) 5k - 17:34 (2011) 10k - 37:40 (2011 in Blenheim Half), 21k - 1:21:32 (2011 Blenheim) 42.2k - 2:59:24 (NYC 2011), Ironman - 10:28:43 (2010 Hawaii)

     

    2011 Goals: Olympic Tri - 2h05min (2h09min), 5k: 17:30 (17:34) 10k: 37:00 (did not attempt), 21km: 1:21:00 (1:21:32), 42.2: 2:59:59 (2:59:24)


    No Talent Drips

      If I were in your shoes, I might try something like (warning, no good basis for this advice):

       

      Pacing for a 1:26 first half (4:06/km). Based on those times you've reported, and your yassos, this should feel pretty easy.  Do a couple of check-ins along the way (10k, 15K?...somewhere along the way) to be sure you feel relaxed and ok at this pace. If not, back it down a touch.

       

      At the half, try and pick it up gradually over the next 10k and be prepared to gut it out for the last 10k.  Go negative.

       

      Here's my (likely flawed) logic:

      Your original goal was sub 3(you can clearly do that, IMHO). If you run a 1:26-1:27 first half, with your endurance base...and ostensible mental toughness (3x Iron), there is no chance you run anything slower than a 1:33 second half--on a bad day.  On a good day, I'd GUESS a 1:23 second half is in reach. Blam-O. Sub 2:50. PR crushed.

       

      Or, you could run 4:18s/km and be bored. 

       

      MTA: if you run NYC in tri gear, I will do my level best to beat you.

       

      MTA, A: Just read your sub 3 post.  Disregard this empty tri gear threat.

       

      You should go get the clap just so you can give it to her. --beef

        With that half PR, and that mileage, I would aim for about a 2:54, so would take it out in 1:27 ish.

        Runners run.

          My guess is 250 / 251 for the full marathon. But the first half in 126-127 sounds good.

           

          Your Blenheim Palace race was very nice. Going from a first 5k of 20:13 and taking it down to 18:40 in the last 5k, very impressive. Now you get the chance to race on tapered legs, you will do great.

          Dont call it a comeback

            I've read on McMillan website to add about 5 minutes to Yasso 800's and that's a good estimate.  I've never done them myself, so I have no personal experience, though.  But based on your half mixed with your Yasso workout, a 2:50 on a fast course is well within your reach.  Unfortunately, my understanding is NYC marathon is not an ideal course for fast times, so you may have to adjust slightly for that.  Mikeymike's suggestion of 2:54 is probably your best bet, especially if you've never gone under 3 before.

              As an inexperienced marathon racer, I'm looking for advice in selecting my marathon race pace for ING NYC Marathon in 2+ weeks

               

              2. 4x2km at 7:05 for 2kms with 1 min rest between each.

               

              When forecasting a runner's potential at marathon, a marker I look for is the pace and quantity of tempo or threshold-pace work. Considering you have good training under belt, a conservative estimate is T-pace + 35 seconds as an outcome for the marathon. I don't see much threshold-pace work in your log, but I am trying to figure out if the 4x 2km workout. Was this a workout?

               

               


              1. PB half marathon in 1:21:32 on a slightly hilly course in 80 degrees.

               

              Then there's this. It clearly states sub-2:55 potential. But that depends on your training and on how you execute the first 5 miles of the marathon. I suggest relaxing early, getting settled into your pace through 5-15 miles, then go it.


              Impact& sport adventurer

                Hi All!

                 

                NemoME, MikeyMike, Parklife, bpurcell, and roots, thanks for the advice!

                 

                roots - to answer your questions about tempo/threshold work - I generally did 2 workouts/ week at these speeds - did 5x or 6x mile repeats with one min rest (best was 5:45-5:53 for 6x on a dirt path), and then 60-min tempo running (in 3x20, 2x30 or 60 straight). Had one 60-min tempo run where I finished the last mile at 6-minute mile pace after cruising at 6:10-6:15 for most of it.

                 

                I'll try to get near the front so my start is impacted minimally and go out in 1:26-1:27 for first half marathon.

                 

                NemoME - no tri clothes for me!! Smile Wearing black Grassroot Soccer shirt with SOJO on the back. ok, might wear trishorts. Smile

                PBs: 1 mile - 4:59 (2008) 5k - 17:34 (2011) 10k - 37:40 (2011 in Blenheim Half), 21k - 1:21:32 (2011 Blenheim) 42.2k - 2:59:24 (NYC 2011), Ironman - 10:28:43 (2010 Hawaii)

                 

                2011 Goals: Olympic Tri - 2h05min (2h09min), 5k: 17:30 (17:34) 10k: 37:00 (did not attempt), 21km: 1:21:00 (1:21:32), 42.2: 2:59:59 (2:59:24)

                  roots - to answer your questions about tempo/threshold work - I generally did 2 workouts/ week at these speeds - did 5x or 6x mile repeats with one min rest (best was 5:45-5:53 for 6x on a dirt path), and then 60-min tempo running (in 3x20, 2x30 or 60 straight). Had one 60-min tempo run where I finished the last mile at 6-minute mile pace after cruising at 6:10-6:15 for most of it.

                   

                   

                  looks like terrific training and it seems like 6:35-6:40 pace is going to feel comfy. Good luck in NYC!


                  Impact& sport adventurer

                    Hi All!!

                     

                    Happy to write I snuck in at NY Marathon with a 2:59:24. went out at a steady pace with a 1:26:50 first half and then hung on the last few miles.

                     

                    I had no problems with my race prep, but for some reason, my calves were twitching at mile 5, then cramping at mile 11. I was running slower than my tempo runs and my half marathon race 5 weeks ago, and I never had a problem with calf cramping. Still a mystery why my body didn't respond on the day.

                     

                    Thank you all for your advice! Nemo ME, looks like you got in about a minute before me and just ahead of Bruce Fordyce. Well done!!

                    PBs: 1 mile - 4:59 (2008) 5k - 17:34 (2011) 10k - 37:40 (2011 in Blenheim Half), 21k - 1:21:32 (2011 Blenheim) 42.2k - 2:59:24 (NYC 2011), Ironman - 10:28:43 (2010 Hawaii)

                     

                    2011 Goals: Olympic Tri - 2h05min (2h09min), 5k: 17:30 (17:34) 10k: 37:00 (did not attempt), 21km: 1:21:00 (1:21:32), 42.2: 2:59:59 (2:59:24)

                      Your taper looked like this.. 80, 57, 39 and 0 miles per week leading up to the marathon. Is that correct? Was there a specific reason your taper is so dramatic?

                       

                      That said.. sub-3 hours is fantastic. Great Job.

                      Dont call it a comeback


                      No Talent Drips

                         Happy to write I snuck in at NY Marathon with a 2:59:24. went out at a steady pace with a 1:26:50 first half and then hung on the last few miles

                        Thank you all for your advice! Nemo ME, looks like you got in about a minute before me and just ahead of Bruce Fordyce. Well done!!

                         

                        Thanks Taylor; I'm definitely ok with how it went for me. I've got to say, I went out through the half just where I wanted to be (1:28 ish) and thought I should be able to pick it up a bit from there--but no luck.  I did a search of finishers from Maine and noted that not-a-one (that I found anyway) had a negative split. That is a more challenging course than the elevation profile led me to believe.  

                         

                        Congrats to you Taylor on a HUGE PR and your first sub 3! What a stage for that kind of accomplishment. 

                         

                        You should go get the clap just so you can give it to her. --beef


                        Impact& sport adventurer

                          Thank Tim, seems you had a great run.

                           

                          I think the course is probably 2 min or so slower for second half to call it an "even split race"

                           

                          Park4Life - I have updated my training log with what i did last week. nothing out of the ordinary for me. about 30% volume of peak week.

                          PBs: 1 mile - 4:59 (2008) 5k - 17:34 (2011) 10k - 37:40 (2011 in Blenheim Half), 21k - 1:21:32 (2011 Blenheim) 42.2k - 2:59:24 (NYC 2011), Ironman - 10:28:43 (2010 Hawaii)

                           

                          2011 Goals: Olympic Tri - 2h05min (2h09min), 5k: 17:30 (17:34) 10k: 37:00 (did not attempt), 21km: 1:21:00 (1:21:32), 42.2: 2:59:59 (2:59:24)