Sub 1:30 Half Marathon in 2020 (Read 538 times)

Marky_Mark_17


    I was more confident than you about Rotorua but the drunk on power govt seems to be softening people up for yet another extension.  At least in Australia the people are starting to push back somewhat.

     

    Apparently the Mt. Roskill Evangelical Fellowship is copping some serious backlash on social media.  I'm sure some of it is probably over the top, but the reality is, if you break the rules, and that means we all have to stay in lockdown for longer, then you have to accept the consequence that people are going to be pretty mad at you.

    5,000m: 15:39 (Dec-19) | 10,000m: 32:34 (Mar-20) | 10km: 33:15 (Sep-19) 

    HM: 1:10:46 (Nov-19) | FM: 2:57:36 (Oct-17)

    Last race: NZ 10,000m Champs, 21 March, 32:34 (PB) 

    Up next: Wairarapa Country Marathon, 11 Oct (I HOPE!!!!)

    "CONSISTENCY IS KING"

    watsonc123


      I am giving Rotorua a 5% chance of happening.

       

      The cluster keeps slowly growing.

       

      Rule breaking is a big problem.  Melbourne, Australia massive spike came due to big rule breaking. Such as workers at quarantine sites having sex with people in quarantine.

       

      So rules end up being tighter to compensate for the rule breakers.

      PRs: 5km 18:43 (Dec 2015), 10km 39:59 (Sep 2020), half 1:26:16 (Sep 2016), full 3:09:28 (Jun 2015)

       

      40+ PRs: 5km 20:10 (Dec 2019), 10km 39:59 (Sep 2020), half 1:29:39 (Jun 2018)

        I'm sure they were wearing masks so all good 

         

        Melbourne, Australia massive spike came due to big rule breaking. Such as workers at quarantine sites having sex with people in quarantine.

         

         

        50+ PBs5k 18:29 Tauranga Parkrun May18   

        5k 18.29 Christchurch Parkrun July 20

        10k 38.55 oct 19 strava run

        Next race Mount Maunganui half 10k 31st Aug 2020

        " If you don't use it you lose it but if you use it, it wears out.

        Somewhere in between is about right "      

         

        Marky_Mark_17


          I am giving Rotorua a 5% chance of happening.

           

          The cluster keeps slowly growing.

           

          It's more than 5% but less than 50% although I have no way of proving this - I'd class it as a 'material possibility' i.e. not probable (>50%) but not highly unlikely (<10%).

           

          Only 1 case today - if we got zeroes on two of Saturday, Sunday and Monday and everyone else is contact traced and isolated, it's still possible.  Yes I know it's not 1pm yet but trust me on this.

           

          The other possibility is that they move the rest of the country to a new invented "Level 1.5" to placate the masses.

           

          I don't think it's likely but at 5% you are being too pessimistic.

          5,000m: 15:39 (Dec-19) | 10,000m: 32:34 (Mar-20) | 10km: 33:15 (Sep-19) 

          HM: 1:10:46 (Nov-19) | FM: 2:57:36 (Oct-17)

          Last race: NZ 10,000m Champs, 21 March, 32:34 (PB) 

          Up next: Wairarapa Country Marathon, 11 Oct (I HOPE!!!!)

          "CONSISTENCY IS KING"

          Marky_Mark_17


            Called it.

             

            Alright, here's a bit of OCD fun.  Daily rolling probability of me running a marathon this year:

            • Rotorua: 30%
            • Wairarapa Country: 55%
            • Auckland: 2.5%
            • Queenstown: 1.5%
            • Whanganui 3 Bridges: 1%
            • The sh!t really hits the fan again and I don't run a marathon: 10%

            5,000m: 15:39 (Dec-19) | 10,000m: 32:34 (Mar-20) | 10km: 33:15 (Sep-19) 

            HM: 1:10:46 (Nov-19) | FM: 2:57:36 (Oct-17)

            Last race: NZ 10,000m Champs, 21 March, 32:34 (PB) 

            Up next: Wairarapa Country Marathon, 11 Oct (I HOPE!!!!)

            "CONSISTENCY IS KING"

            JMac11


            Taper Czar

              I'm sure they were wearing masks so all good 

               

               

              I was just wondering where you were. I should have known how to get you out of your cave.

              5K: 16:42 (9/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

               

              Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 

                I've been keeping my seedy side hidden 

                 

                 

                 

                I was just wondering where you were. I should have known how to get you out of your cave.

                50+ PBs5k 18:29 Tauranga Parkrun May18   

                5k 18.29 Christchurch Parkrun July 20

                10k 38.55 oct 19 strava run

                Next race Mount Maunganui half 10k 31st Aug 2020

                " If you don't use it you lose it but if you use it, it wears out.

                Somewhere in between is about right "      

                 

                flavio1980


                King of pastries

                  I'm sure they were wearing masks so all good 

                   

                   

                  PRs: 1500m 4:54.1 3K 10:34 5K 18:05 HM 1:23:30 - Up next: Some 5K race Sep 6th.

                  Tool to generate Strava weekly

                  JamesD


                  JamesD

                    Good luck, Steve!

                     

                    Morning vs. evening races - For 5K or shorter, I’d rather run in the afternoon or early evening.  I’m just looser and more ready to run fast.  If my plan C half on Oct. 31 gets cancelled (plan E in Athens on Oct. 25, my only other option before winter, went virtual this week), I may try a nighttime 5K on that day.  Never done one of those.  

                     

                    Since tomorrow’s an off day and I end my weeks on Saturday, I can get my weekly in really early.  Sunday’s long hills were very slow, but I felt fine the rest of the week.  Well, except for today when I tripped on a root near the end of my run and banged my shoulder and cheekbone on the dirt.  Could’ve been worse - my head bumped some concrete at the base of a bridge, but my shoulder & cheekbone took most of the impact.  Damage was limited to a sore shoulder and some scrapes on my knee, forearm, and especially my face - nothing that should affect my running.  I finished my run, and my cadence drills/strides were faster than usual, I assume because of the adrenaline from the fall.

                     

                    Sun - 5.7 miles including 5 long hills @~2:25, labored

                    Mon -7.7 recovery

                    Tues - 10.7 easy

                    Weds - 37 minutes swimming

                    Thurs - 12.2 easy

                    Fri - 6.5 recovery, including strides and a painful fall

                    Sat - off  

                     

                    Total - about 42.8 miles

                    12/26/52-week averages - 41/41/39 mpw



                    Post-1987 PRs:  Half 1:30:14 (2019); 10K 39:35 (2019); 5K 19:12 (2017); Mile 5:37.3 (April '20)

                    2020 Goals:  35+ mpw, Half<1:30, 10K<39:35, 5K<19:30; Mile<5:40 (done)

                    darkwave


                    Mother of Cats

                      Good luck, Steve!

                       

                      Morning vs. evening races - For 5K or shorter, I’d rather run in the afternoon or early evening.  I’m just looser and more ready to run fast.  If my plan C half on Oct. 31 gets cancelled (plan E in Athens on Oct. 25, my only other option before winter, went virtual this week), I may try a nighttime 5K on that day.  Never done one of those.  

                       

                      Since tomorrow’s an off day and I end my weeks on Saturday, I can get my weekly in really early.  Sunday’s long hills were very slow, but I felt fine the rest of the week.  Well, except for today when I tripped on a root near the end of my run and banged my shoulder and cheekbone on the dirt.  Could’ve been worse - my head bumped some concrete at the base of a bridge, but my shoulder & cheekbone took most of the impact.  Damage was limited to a sore shoulder and some scrapes on my knee, forearm, and especially my face - nothing that should affect my running.  I finished my run, and my cadence drills/strides were faster than usual, I assume because of the adrenaline from the fall.

                       

                      Sun - 5.7 miles including 5 long hills @~2:25, labored

                      Mon -7.7 recovery

                      Tues - 10.7 easy

                      Weds - 37 minutes swimming

                      Thurs - 12.2 easy

                      Fri - 6.5 recovery, including strides and a painful fall

                      Sat - off  

                       

                      Total - about 42.8 miles

                      12/26/52-week averages - 41/41/39 mpw



                       

                      Thank you for beating the Kiwis this week!

                       

                      (and I'm glad you're not hurt)

                      Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                       

                      And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                      JMac11


                      Taper Czar

                         

                        Thank you for beating the Kiwis this week!

                         

                         

                        Seconded, can't stand how I haven't even done my Saturday run and they're already posting being done with their Sunday run. They're already so annoying with their KM you think they'd show some respect with not time traveling too 

                        5K: 16:42 (9/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                         

                        Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 

                        Marky_Mark_17


                          James - glad it sounds like nothing serious.  I took a tumble a few months back for the first time in a long time and it was quite humbling!

                           

                          Today's update on the odds.  2 new cases - a zero would've helped things but I'd say chances of Level 1 on Monday are looking slim:

                          • Rotorua: 25%
                          • Wairarapa Country: 60%
                          • Auckland: 2.5%
                          • Queenstown: 1.5%
                          • Whanganui 3 Bridges: 1%
                          • The sh!t really hits the fan again and I don't run a marathon: 10%

                          5,000m: 15:39 (Dec-19) | 10,000m: 32:34 (Mar-20) | 10km: 33:15 (Sep-19) 

                          HM: 1:10:46 (Nov-19) | FM: 2:57:36 (Oct-17)

                          Last race: NZ 10,000m Champs, 21 March, 32:34 (PB) 

                          Up next: Wairarapa Country Marathon, 11 Oct (I HOPE!!!!)

                          "CONSISTENCY IS KING"

                          watsonc123


                            Steve - good luck.

                            PRs: 5km 18:43 (Dec 2015), 10km 39:59 (Sep 2020), half 1:26:16 (Sep 2016), full 3:09:28 (Jun 2015)

                             

                            40+ PRs: 5km 20:10 (Dec 2019), 10km 39:59 (Sep 2020), half 1:29:39 (Jun 2018)

                            SteveChCh


                            Hot Weather Complainer

                              Mark - Are you saying you think the Queenstown marathon on November 21 only has a 1.5% chance of going ahead?  Or that is the chance of you choosing to do it?

                               

                              Thanks watson.

                               

                              Weather forecast has come up perfect.  6-12C (43-53F) from start to finish with light winds.  I'm feeling nervous with a touch of fear but feel better when I remember the training I have in the bank, and my conservative strategy (assuming I can pull that off).

                              PB:  Christchurch 2016 1:29.25

                              Recent Races:   Cherry Blossom Half-Marathon, September 13, 2020 1:33:38 Half-Marathon Time Trial May 31, 2020 1:31.51 Auckland Waterfront Half-Marathon 2019 1:30.49

                              2020 Planned Races:  Queenstown Half-Marathon, November 21

                              Marky_Mark_17


                                Mark - Are you saying you think the Queenstown marathon on November 21 only has a 1.5% chance of going ahead?  Or that is the chance of you choosing to do it?


                                No that’s the chance of me running each of those marathons.  I think Queenstown should be a reasonable chance to go ahead.

                                 

                                Weather looking good here for tomorrow morning too.  A few people I know have run the course already and the 2.5km loop is consistently coming up at 2.4km haha.  It's just a chance to stretch the legs out really though pre-marathon.

                                5,000m: 15:39 (Dec-19) | 10,000m: 32:34 (Mar-20) | 10km: 33:15 (Sep-19) 

                                HM: 1:10:46 (Nov-19) | FM: 2:57:36 (Oct-17)

                                Last race: NZ 10,000m Champs, 21 March, 32:34 (PB) 

                                Up next: Wairarapa Country Marathon, 11 Oct (I HOPE!!!!)

                                "CONSISTENCY IS KING"