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What are my chances? Sub 3 (Read 83 times)

    I've never wanted to run a marathon... ever. But I'm getting older now, things are changing, and I am getting back into running after a few years of just running intermittently. It seems like a good time to set a goal and for some reason, running a sub 3 hr marathon this upcoming spring just won't leave me alone. Question is, can I do it? I suppose I'll find out.

     

    A little history:

    I used to be a decent, sub elite level runner in college. Fast forward 15 years and I am a has been. I have always had issues with injuries, and even more so as I've gotten older. This has been my biggest limiter. Last time I ran a sub 17 5k was 2016. I haven't run very consistently since then, hitting a max of about 37 miles in a week, averaging quite a bit less with a lot of off time. I've kept busy riding/racing bikes but my heart is in the run.

     

    More recently I did run a 1:26 half one morning at 4:30 am, by myself on the rail trail. I did do some training for that maxing out at that 37 miles/wk. This was Nov 2020. I'm slower now but finally getting a few weeks of training in. I hit 1000 miles for this year and have been able to hit about 30 miles the last couple weeks.

     

    I've got a long way to go. If I can keep injuries at bay, I think I can do it.

     

    So why post here? Well basically I just want to see it in writing, and make sure someone else sees it. Makes it more official. I don't want to come out of my anti-marathon closet in my running community just yet. Not sure I am ready for that yet.

     

    Well, let's see how this goes!

    Next Races: Fools Run 10 mile (4/2/22), York Marathon (5/15/2214/23), Stupid Marathon TT (June 2022)

    Running Problem


    Problem Child

      You got this.

      Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

      VDOT 52.45

      5k19:35 | Marathon 2:56:07

      wcrunner2


      Are we there, yet?

        If you can avoid injuries, sub-3:00 is well within reason if my experience is at all relevant.  Never more than a good regional runner for local 5Ks and 10Ks, at age 34 I ran 2:56 coming off a 1:25 HM two months prior.  I was training about 65 miles per week, rarely went over 70, so very consistent.

         2023 Races:

              On IR for now

             

        JMac11


        RIP Milkman

          Join us in the 2022 marathon training thread when it gets posted. We can give you much better advice as your training progresses, but you're definitely able to run a sub 3.

          5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:14:57 (5/22)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

           

           


          SMART Approach

            Based on your history I would shoot for Fall as your goal. Just build your base and strength going into Spring. Get a lot of 30-40 stress free miles per week under your belt before starting to train for a marathon vs using marathon training to get more fit. Be fit and strong going into it. You have good talent but get your body resilient and confident to handle the training.

            Run Coach. Recovery Coach. Founder of SMART Approach Training, Coaching & Recovery

            Structured Marathon Adaptive Recovery Training

            Safe Muscle Activation Recovery Technique

            www.smartapproachtraining.com

            kilkee


            runktrun

              I think your previous experience indicates a sub 3:00, IF you can train consistently.  I think consistency will be key for you.  You probably don't need to run super high mileage, maybe 50s with a few 60mi weeks, and "consistency" for you can even look like a day off every week if that's what you need to stay healthy.  Look into a pre-hab and strength program to help you stay injury free.  You probably have a good idea of your weaknesses, so don't neglect the little things.

               

              I agree with a fall marathon goal.  That gives you time to cycle through a base phase, and then a proper marathon-specific phase.

              Not running for my health, but in spite of it.

                Thanks for the encouragement everyone!

                 

                I do have a decent amount of experience, certainly not new to the running game. I appreciate the input and accountability, especially when it comes to the prehab. I tend not to find enough time to do that well. I know... stupid. So that said, I'm not by any means a novice. I have a lot of experience coaching and running over the last 20 years. BUT... as for the marathon distance, I'm humble enough not to pretend that I have it all figured out. Again, thanks for the help there!

                 

                For reference

                - highest mileage I ever hit was right at about 100mpw in college circa 2002-3ish

                - haven't hit more than low 40s since the end of 2015

                - hoping to have a few 50-60 mile weeks in there before I'd race for sure with some decent long runs

                - probably close to 30,000 miles lifetime running which certainly helps

                 

                I'm writing my own plans (for fun!) and I think I have enough coaching experience to make it work. Of course, sometimes following your own plans can be hard but I think I am capable of making it happen. I guess we will see!

                Next Races: Fools Run 10 mile (4/2/22), York Marathon (5/15/2214/23), Stupid Marathon TT (June 2022)

                Running Problem


                Problem Child

                  You'll probably want to get to 45 miles per week by February and live around 50 mile weeks with 12-16 mile long runs on weekends to get ready for marathon training. 100 mpw 20 years ago isn't really going to help today. Being early to mid 40s is going to take more effort due to having a more complicated life.

                  Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

                  VDOT 52.45

                  5k19:35 | Marathon 2:56:07

                    @runningproblem - yeah I am thinking the same thing in terms of training. I need that mileage, I need some long runs for sure. Mentally I am thinking I will need to do at least a couple runs 2.5-3 hrs long, not at marathon pace but to get used to time on feet, nutrition, etc.

                    Next Races: Fools Run 10 mile (4/2/22), York Marathon (5/15/2214/23), Stupid Marathon TT (June 2022)

                    Running Problem


                    Problem Child

                      It's pretty easy to type it out and put it into a calendar. If you're targeting an October marathon you have probably 4 months to build a base. No time like the present to start putting pen to paper and making it happen.

                      Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

                      VDOT 52.45

                      5k19:35 | Marathon 2:56:07