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Can I qualify for Boston yet? (Read 897 times)

    I've been lurking here for a while but this is my first post.  I'm a 31 year old male and ran a PR 19:24 5K Thursday, and a 13.1 treadmill in 1:28:35 today.  I've been running somewhat seriously, and at least 35 miles per week, for 14 weeks.  My weekly long runs have been 13 - 15 miles for the last 10 weeks.

     

    There is a small New Years marathon I can run that's pretty cheap and very close to home.  It's USATF certified and quite flat.  McMillan extrapolates a 3:06:49 based on my half time today.  I need 3:05.

     

    Can I use this race to BQ?  Google searches suggest yes, but the Boston Athletic site doesn't make it very clear.

     

    I'm still making steady improvements in my times.  At 5' 8", I've lost about 15 pounds to 133 since I started running again.  Should I try a marathon in a month, or wait a while longer before attempting a BQ?  I've never raced further than 8K.


    Fat butt on couch

      For runners in your position, marathon projections by the calculators tend to be wildy optimistic.  And I use the word "wildy" in the most optimistic manner.

       

      A marathon is more than five times as far as you've raced....and you have no concept of what the last 6-10 miles of a marathon can be like off of the relatively low mileage you have been running.

       

      If you want to run the New Years marathon, I suggest you run it targeting around 3:15-3:20 for the first 20 miles and then see what you feel like then.  If you feel good, pick it up and drive through to the finish.  Yes, this guarantees you will not get a BQ.  However, I can virtually guarantee that since a BQ is a tenuous proposition even by internet calculator standards, it is even more of an optimistic proposition in real life.

       

      i'm not saying you should not run the race.  Conversely, if you run it as a learning experience it may be valuable.  However, running it with the intent of a BQ is likely to be a disappointing and painful experience.

      "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

       


      I'm back!

        Just to be clear, whether you can run a BQ before Boston 2012 is irrelevant -- it's full. You have plenty of time to run a BQ before Boston 2013. Why rush it? Why not run a half first? It's impressive that you could do a treadmill half in 1:28:35, but it's not really the same thing.

         

        If you want to target a marathon to run a BQ, as a serious goal, then great. But in that case you should start at the beginning of an 18-week or so program. I'd say you're quite ready to jump into, say, Pfiztinger's up to 55 mpw plan. Even so you won't have a firm idea of whether a BQ is realistic at the end until you throw some tune-up races in halfway or more through the program.


        A Saucy Wench

          What they both said.  What you have is a good glimpse that at some point, properly trained, a BQ is  in your grasp.   VERY few follow the McMillan curve on lowish mileage and those that do tend to have been consistent with that mileage for years, not weeks.   There isn't a lot of benefit in rushing the process when it is too late for this year and when in reality you probably need a few minutes under BQ to actually make their lottery.

           

          In the meantime get a more solid racing base and training base.  Race a few HM's and see what it feels like. 

          I have become Death, the destroyer of electronic gadgets

           

          "When I got too tired to run anymore I just pretended I wasnt tired and kept running anyway" - dd, age 7


          Queen of 3rd Place

            + + + a lot. I didn't BQ until McMillan calculated marathon time was about 8 or 9 minutes faster than what I needed - and I just barely made it and under perfect weather conditions and a flat uncrowded course and with pacers and it was painfully hard and it sure wasn't my first marathon. Do yourself a huge favor and just enjoy your first (or your first several). Don't blow up on #1 and then never want to do it again!

            2013 Valley Runner of the Year Series: Feb 16 5K (4 points out of 10) ... Mar 2 10K (20/30)... Mar 16 4Mi (21/30) ... Apr 6 10K (DNS) ... Apr 21 2Mi (5/10) ... May 11 5Mi (21/30)... Jun 8 1Mi (13/20) ... Jun 16 6Mi (22/30) ... Sep 28 10K (14/20) ... Oct 5 5K (7/10) ...Oct 12 5Mi (16/20) ... Oct 20 5K (0/10) = 3rd Place, Women's Senior Division


            HobbyJogger & HobbyRacer

              McMillan projects about the same marathon time for me as for you, but I haven't accomplished it yet -- haven't even come close, really.

              It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.

                There is a small New Years marathon I can run that's pretty cheap and very close to home.  It's USATF certified and quite flat.  McMillan extrapolates a 3:06:49 based on my half time today.  I need 3:05.

                 

                Can I use this race to BQ?  Google searches suggest yes, but the Boston Athletic site doesn't make it very clear.

                Yes.  BAA accepts a marathon time from any certified course.  (Unless it's a trail marathon ... then they may, but I'm not sure.)

                “Everything you need is already inside.” -- Bill Bowerman


                I'm back!

                  FWIW McMillan has always been pretty close for me, across the range, even for my first marathon. But don't even think of applying it unless you are appropriately trained for the distance in question. For the marathon, that means having completed a solid 18ish-week training plan, with a few 20+ runs thrown in.

                    Yes.  BAA accepts a marathon time from any certified course.  (Unless it's a trail marathon ... then they may, but I'm not sure.)

                     

                    CliveF is right on.  If you run <3:05:00 you will qualify for the 2013 Boston Marathon.  Can you run <3:05:00?  That's up to you and and how you train between now and then.  I'd say go for it.  If you get there awesome!  If not you'll know what those last 8 miles feel like so you can get there at your next marathon.

                     

                    Good luck!

                      Sorry, I missed the question about should you go for it with no races longer than 8k.  I'd still say give it a try to learn what the marathon feels like and then plan on another try at qualifying later in the spring after you've added some more training and some longer races.

                        If all I have to go on is a 19:24 5k, a 1:28:35 half marathon (on a treadmill) and 35mpw for 14 weeks then I would say there is very little chance of a 3:05 marathon in January.  Your log doesn't show anywhere near 35 mpw--are you not logging most of your runs?

                        Runners run.

                          I'm gonna guess if you were in 3:05 shape your 5K would easily be a minute quicker.

                           

                          I've only run a couple marathons but have already seen my fair share of people go out and run a great half marathon only to get 16-20 miles in and detonate into a miserable mess. Don't be that runner.

                           

                          The good news is that you've got plenty of time to put all the pieces in place. Treating this New Year's marathon as a long run for experience could be one of those pieces. Then find a half and race it. You'll learn a lot.

                           

                          Following the 18/55 plan bhearn referenced really boosted my fitness and speed from a 30 mpw runner with a barely sub 20 5K to BQ. It's worked for a lot of us but you have to give it time, which you've got, and stick to it.

                            +1 to everything everyone else said.  Just another little note: You might be just be quite a bit different from me, but when I was in mid-19s 5k shape there is very little chance I would have been able to pull of a 1:28:35 half...especially on a treadmill.  Maybe the 5k was tough, or you weren't all in........ or the treadmill was a little generous.  I don't want to say you couldn't have run that quick of a half, but it is something to consider.  A time prediction for a full based on your 5k is a less encouraging 3:09:41.  Maybe you are just the type of runner that beats the prediction charts as the distance increases...I'm just not certain how likely that is.

                            Whatever my lot, thou hast taught me to say, It is well, it is well with my soul.