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Big Lake Half - Realistic Goal! (Read 645 times)

    So I have the Big Lake half marathon coming up this weekend which is the first race I've done longer than about 4-5miles. Becausemy friends got me to sign up at the last minute, I haven't put in as much mileage as I should have (about 25m/week), but I have gotten a few solid long runs in Undecided Now I have to figure out how fast to go out. I'd like to race it rather than just try to finish (I have a friend to beat!), but don't want to blow up 5 miles in and have the rest be pure misery. According to McMillan, my 5k translates into a 1:26 (6:35 pace), but based on my training this doesn't even seem remotely possible. My thought is that maybe I can sustain closer to a 7:00 pace and shoot for a goal time of 1:30. Does that seem reasonable, or is that too fast for my level of fitness as well? It guess it should be interesting since I don't know how much a half is supposed to hurt, and I won't realize I'm going too fast until I die. Maybe I'll see some of you there (I'll be the guy crawling to the beer tent after the finish Wink )


    Just Be

      I'd shoot for somewhere around 1:35 to 1:45. Based on your running log, you're not putting in enough distance to expect a sub 1:30, but good luck, and don't hurt yourself! Smile


      The Greatest of All Time

        You just did a 12 mile long run in 1:28:30, right? Assuming that was at true long run pace, 1:26 might be doable. Looking at the rest of your long runs over the last 30 days I bet you can do it. Your long run pace has increased substantially since January even as distances have increased. That's great. Try going out at 6:45 pace for the first couple of miles and if that feels good crank it up and go for it. If it's too fast, back off. Go with how you feel. BTW, do you train with a HRM? MTA: You would have greatly benefited from a few 6-8 mile tempo runs during the last month.
        all you touch and all you see, is all your life will ever be

        Obesity is a disease. Yes, a disease where nothing tastes bad...except salads.
          Thanks for the feedback! I think you two have pretty much covered the spectrum of what I might run Tongue Marcus: I'm not sure what true long run pace is - I was pretty tired at the end of my recent long runs, but certainly wasn't going all out. The recent 12 miler I ran was 10 miles in 7:30 pace, and finished with 2 miles at 6:15 pace to get a feel of what it would feel like pushing hard when I'm tired (which, by the way, hurts!) Unfortunately I don't train with a HRM, so I don't have that info. Just to test what 6:45 pace felt like, I did a 6m tempo run today at that pace. Felt good - comfortably hard, but I definitely wasn't wasted after 6. Next time around I will definitely build some longer tempo runs into my training (and bump the overall mileage up too). I like the plan of going out in 6:45's and seeing how that feels. I was thinking that was too aggressive until today's run, but it really isn't as hard to maintain as I thought once I settle in.
            Because of the low mileage I don't think you'll be able to come close to the mid 1:25's that your 5k time projects, but I'd rate you a solid favorite to break 1:30. If you'd be happy with that kind of time I suggest that you go out at pace, which would be around 6:50. It will probably feel a little too slow, which is what you want for the first few miles. I can't stress enough how important it is that you hold back in the early going, especially since you've never raced this far. If you are still feeling good past the half way point you can start racing. You are probably less than a year away from running low 1:20's HM, mid 17's for 5k if you can work your mileage up to mid 40's-low 50's and hold it there for a while.
            Age 60 plus best times: 5k 19:00, 10k 38:35, 10m 1:05:30, HM 1:24:09, 30k 2:04:33
              I reckon 1:26 - 1:28 is possible though you may be a little short of stamina to get the 1:26 & lower. It's very hard to tell as you are obviously still on an upward curve of improvement and have a good deal of talent. I agree with the previous estimates. Go out about 6:45 pace (be careful not to go off too fast as you will crash at 10-13 if you expend too much energy) and see how you feel at 1/2 way. If you're feeling good then you may have some more to give as you've kept your training up well since the 5k. Don't just assume that because you run low miles you can't run a good 1/2m. It looks like you've cross-trained too, so your base fitness looks pretty good. I ran a 1:28 1/2m a few years ago off 10-15 miles a week and a gym or circuit session a week, so it's perfectly doable. Post a race report if you can as it'll be interesting to see how you do. Good Luck!


              jules2

                You've nearly run the same distance as me in the last 5 months at about the same pace your only problem is lack of experience but depending on the course I think you could crack 1:30 as long as you don't get carried away at the start. Its the last couple of miles that make you suffer if you start too quick I've got a half this sunday should be fun to see how we compare I'm thinking around 1:31 - 1:33 as theres a few hills, I've only run one in the last couple of years ( a 1:41 my worst ever ) and I've only just got over the injury from that also it very hot at the moment.

                Old age is when you move from illegal to prescribed drugs.

                  Thanks for the encouragement! Based on all the advice here I'll go out at 6:45-6:50 pace, and push it from there if I feel good. Weather doesn't look horrible (low 50's and light rain), so hopefully that's not much of a factor. I'm getting excited! I'll post a full report when I get back. Good luck this weekend Jules! Hopefully you crush those hills, I don't crash, and we both end up sub 1:30. ps. I noticed the random 100+ mile bike rides in your log - it's been a LONG time since I've done a century... maybe I'll have to break out the road bike after this weekend.


                  jules2

                    Don't be misled if you look closer at the log you will see I have four bikes, I cycle to work everyday so I aggregate the mileage and only post at irregular intervals. The weather has been really poor all winter and early spring so I haven't done any long cycle runs but will start once the half is over. Last year I did three rides around 120 miles each including going to London and back ( not on the same day ) to see the start of the Le Tour De France. Good luck, assuming your half is on Sunday I should post first as we get the sun before you.

                    Old age is when you move from illegal to prescribed drugs.

                    L Train


                      Not sure what conditions you have primarily trained in, but the Big Lake 1/2 is pretty hilly by my recollection. The first mile is downhill, then rolling but basically up for the next 7-8 miles and then rolling to a little down at the end. At least that's how I remember it.

                       

                        Quick update: score one for McMillan. I crushed my expectations and ran a 1:26:45! I am thrilled with that. Full report when I have more time, but I'll just post the mile splits so you experienced people who run even splits can have a good giggle. 6:32, 6:50, 7:03, 7:08, 7:01, 6:47, 6:23, 6:25, 6:45, 6:23, 6:16, 6:15, 5:52


                        The Greatest of All Time

                          Great job...that's awesome!!! Don't ever let anyone tell you that you cannot do something, especially over the internet!!!
                          all you touch and all you see, is all your life will ever be

                          Obesity is a disease. Yes, a disease where nothing tastes bad...except salads.


                          jules2

                            Thanks for that Gif theres nothing like setting an impossible target for me ! I'm just off to start mine and its getting hotter and hotter I think your record is safe ! If you come over I'll buy you a beer in the pub later.

                            Old age is when you move from illegal to prescribed drugs.


                            Gotta TRI

                              Hey great job!!! That's the same race I just ran too!!
                              2010 Dec. California International Marathon 2011 Jan. Disney Marathon
                                Great racing Jamie I felt confident that you'd go under 1:30 but wouldn't have predicted you'd do it by this much--only because of mileage though. Your 5k time said sub 1:26. The fact that you came as close as you did with the low mileage is a clear indication that you have plenty of potential at the longer distances. What a finish! Well done
                                Age 60 plus best times: 5k 19:00, 10k 38:35, 10m 1:05:30, HM 1:24:09, 30k 2:04:33
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