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What is the deviation of your race times? (Read 229 times)


Dream Maker

    How much do your race times deviate from year to year assuming you don't stop running completely?

     

    My 5K times have had a 9 minute deviation.  My marathon times, of course, significantly more.  I'm sure it would be even worse if I stopped running completely, because there was a time when I couldn't run a full 5K without walking, and when I could eventually, it was still ~35 minutes.  My best 5K time ever is 20:56. 
    I was running for eight years consistently before I broke an hour in the 10K, though my fastest is 45:17.  I think I'd be just under an hour right now but I haven't run one in a long, long time.

    I have marathon finishes within a 3.5 hour window though a lot goes into that.  Probably 2.5 without extenuating factors.


    I see a big difference with weight, and then another big loss difference of ~70 mpw average and ~30 mpw average.  

    What is the range from your first to fastest 5K, and what is your range from year to year?  

     I know people who have hit my 5K time without training, whereas I was in heavy training to hit that. (I didn't have excess weight, either, but I've not seen anyone with a lot of excess weight hit my 5K time without training.  It seems to make too big of a difference)

     

     

    Just thought it would be interesting to see.

     

     

      My 5k probably hasn't deviated more than 60 seconds from the mean in 15 years. The longer the race the more variability from race to race just due to the consequences of a complete blowup

      Runners run

        Jun-10

        2:50

        Sep-10

        2:30

        Oct-10

        2:05

        Apr-11

        2:20

        Apr-11

        2:13

        Jun-11

        1:22

        May-12

        1:17

        Jun-12

        1:13

        Sep-12

        1:13

        Nov-12

        1:06

        Feb-13

        0:35

        Apr-13

        0:24

        Nov-13

        0:25

        Jun-14

        0:18

        Jun-14

        0:19

        Jun-14

        1:07

        Jul-14

        0:29

        Aug-14

        0:25

        Sep-14

        1:04

        Nov-14

        2:02

        Nov-14

        1:21

        Mar-15

        1:08

        May-15

        0:12

        Jul-15

        0:25

        Sep-15

        0:23

        Nov-15

           -PR-

         

        Just a curiosity thing, or trying to draw some conclusion? Depends so much on experience, age, mileage (overall and consistency), race frequency, injury frequency, not to mention course, weather, competition variation.

         

        For what it’s worth, my 5K data is above (times are +PR). I don’t think I race 5ks frequently enough to draw any conclusions from it. There’s some mileage increase, experience involved in an overall improvement over time, but then there’s some injury recoveries thrown in (late 2014), and then just individual race differences.

        Come all you no-hopers, you jokers and rogues
        We're on the road to nowhere, let's find out where it goes


        Mmmmm...beer

          Weird, I thought I had run more 5Ks than this, but apparently not.  Here's my 15 5Ks over the last 3.5 years.  The OK5K was my first race, I started running April 2012.  Still improving, so that's good, wouldn't mind getting into the 17's with more focus and weight loss.  But I've been focusing on ultras more than shorter stuff.

           

          2/5/2016

          Tybee Runfest 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          18:44

          6:02

          10/31/2015

          Spinx RunFest 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          18:32

          5:58

          9/26/2015

          Susan G Komen 5K

          Race

          5.0 km

          19:12

          6:11

          8/22/2015

          Swamp Rabbit Brewery 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          19:18

          6:13

          8/15/2015

          Michelin 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          18:59

          6:07

          4/12/2015

          Altamont 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          20:07

          6:29

          12/13/2014

          Tacky Sweater 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          19:24

          6:15

          11/27/2014

          Drumstick Dash 5K

          Race

          5.0 km

          19:25

          6:15

          5/10/2014

          Lee's Friends Walk on the Wild Side 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          19:32

          6:18

          4/19/2014

          Race for a Better Place 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          18:57

          6:06

          6/8/2013

          OK5K

          Race

          5.0 km

          20:09

          6:30

          4/27/2013

          IMS 5k

          Race

          5.0 km

          19:26

          6:16

          12/31/2012

          Beat the Ball 5K

          Race

          5.0 km

          20:30

          6:36

          12/1/2012

          Jingle Bell 5K

          Race

          5.0 km

          20:23

          6:34

          6/9/2012

          OK5K

          Race

          5.0 km

          25:45

          8:18

          -Dave

          My running blog

          Goals | sub-18 5k | sub-3 marathon 2:56:46!!

          npaden


            Throwing out races from before I was in any kind of shape at all there isn't really that much deviation for me.

             

            9/19/2015 Run

            Red Raider Road Race 5K

            Race 5.0 km 22:27 7:14  
            10/25/2014 Run

            M5M LCU 5K Race

            Race 5.0 km 22:22 7:12  
            10/11/2014 Run

            Red Raider Road Race 5K

            Race 5.0 km 22:12 7:09  
            5/3/2014 Run

            Light up the Night 5K

            Race 5.0 km 22:00 7:05  
            10/12/2013 Run

            Red Raider Road Race 5K

            Race 5.0 km 21:27 6:55  
            10/27/2012 Run

            Make A Wish 5K

            Race 5.0 km 22:39 7:18    
            10/13/2012 Run

            Red Raider Road Race 5K

            Race 5.0 km 24:07 7:46

             

             

            Especially if you throw out the first one in 2012, there is barely 1 minute deviation from there out.  The sad thing is that my most recent one is exactly 1 minute slower than my PR! 

             

            Much more dramatic deviations if you look at my 10K numbers, you can tell a lot more about my fitness level on those I think.

             

            10/10/2015 Run

            Shallowwater Stampede 10K

            Race 10.0 km 47:35 7:40  
            9/13/2014 Run

            Shallowwater Stampede 10K

            Race 10.0 km 43:58 7:05  
            9/14/2013 Run

            Shallowwater Stampede 10K

            Race 10.0 km 44:51 7:14  
            6/8/2013 Run

            Levelland Lope 10K

            Race 10.0 km 46:59 7:34  
            9/8/2012 Run

            Shallowwater Stampede 10K

            Race 10.0 km 49:19 7:57  
            6/9/2012 Run

            Levelland Lope 10K

            Race 10.0 km 54:15 8:44    

             

             

            Another sad looking progression when you look at my most recent race compared to my PR, but you can see more variation I think with the longer distance.  You can somewhat gut out a 5K, but not a 10K in my opinion.

             

            I spent 2015 working on training for Ultras and it seems to show in my shorter races.  Working on getting faster again in 2016.

            Age: 50 Weight: 224 Height: 6'3" (Goal weight 195)

            Current PR's:  Mara 3:14:36* (2017); HM 1:36:13 (2017); 10K 43:59 (2014); 5K 21:12 (2016)

            Wing


            Joggaholic

              My 5k PR have improved year-to-year but the improvement has diminished a lot as expected.

               

              Here's my 5k history. I discounted some abnormal times (didn't race it or had super fast downhill course ... etc)

               

              Year    [5k Race Time Range], # Races

              2010   [29:01], 1

              2011   [25:31], 1

              2012   [21:57 - 22:23], 2

              2013   [20:12 - 23:03], 5

              2014   [19:53 - 23:33], 8

              2015   [19:45 - 20:43], 7

              2016   [20:08 - 21:02], 2

                Not much deviation with recent times improving as my mileage has gone up but flattening out.  Most slower races are either poor efforts or tougher/longer courses...likewise, faster efforts were often favorable courses or higher caliber fields that push the pace.  Until you asked, I'm actually surprised how little volatility there is since I had hoped my fitness level in the last 12 months is much higher.  I guess some of that gets offset by age.  I haven't done enough races of other distances to have enough results to meaningfully compare.

                 

                Date Distance DistanceUnit Duration
                07/09/2011 5 Kilometer 0:18:16
                08/13/2011 5 Kilometer 0:17:55
                07/04/2012 5 Kilometer 0:18:38
                07/14/2012 5 Kilometer 0:17:33
                08/11/2012 5 Kilometer 0:17:30
                10/04/2013 5 Kilometer 0:18:24
                04/26/2014 5 Kilometer 0:18:05
                05/03/2014 5 Kilometer 0:18:59
                05/24/2014 5 Kilometer 0:18:40
                07/12/2014 5 Kilometer 0:17:57
                08/14/2014 5 Kilometer 0:18:16
                09/06/2014 5 Kilometer 0:18:00
                09/20/2014 5 Kilometer 0:17:45
                04/25/2015 5 Kilometer 0:17:30
                07/05/2015 5 Kilometer 0:17:08
                08/08/2015 5 Kilometer 0:17:20
                08/13/2015 5 Kilometer 0:17:27
                10/24/2015 5 Kilometer 0:17:28
                11/07/2015 5 Kilometer 0:17:17


                an amazing likeness


                  What is the range from your first to fastest 5K, and what is your range from year to year? 

                   

                  Slowest, I was injured and limped through it ...so discard as an outlier.

                  Fastest, I suspect the course was short...so discard as an outlier.

                   

                  Deviation from slowest to fastest 5K = 59 sec.

                  Deviation from first 5K to fastest  5K = 5 sec.

                  Acceptable at a dance, invaluable in a shipwreck.

                    If I go back further than June 2009 or include cross country races my 5k times are non-Gaussian but if I limit to road 5k races since June 2009 my standard deviation is 3.9%. I don't have enough samples from any other distance race for the standard deviation to be meaningful with the exception of the marathon which is more of a random number generator for me because I almost always go out at burn-out pace.

                    wcrunner2


                    Are we there, yet?

                      I get huge variations from year to year depending on training and even big variations in a given year based on course profile and weather in addition to training. One year early in my career I had a 2:30 variation (19:25 vs 16:55) for 5K only a month apart because of course difficulty. The next year running on the same course every 2 weeks times varied from 17:09 to 16:22 for 3 races simply because of the level of competition. More recently (2007) I dropped my time from 25:43 to 22:56 in less than 5 months with increased mileage and intensity in training.

                       2024 Races:

                            03/09 - Livingston Oval Ultra 6-Hour, 22.88 miles

                            05/11 - D3 50K
                            05/25 - What the Duck 12-Hour

                            06/17 - 6 Days in the Dome 12-Hour.

                       

                       

                           

                        Past 5 years for 5K

                        '11 - 17:36

                        '12 - 17:18

                        '13 - 17:18

                        '14 - 17:55

                        '15 - 17:45

                         

                        Have been sub 18 every year but one (18:06), since 2004.

                         

                        I'm running 5Ks about 2.5 to 3 minutes slower than my peak, but that was 30 years ago. Wheels are coming off though, and I will be challenged to break 18 this year. Relatively speaking have lost a little less in the half marathon. Last year was about 9 minutes slower than 1980s PR.

                          Not more than 2 minutes- I fluctuate between 21:15s and up to 23 minutes for 5Ks.

                            My 5k probably hasn't deviated more than 60 seconds from the mean in 15 years. The longer the race the more variability from race to race just due to the consequences of a complete blowup

                             

                            truth.

                            NHLA


                              I race in the mts. Some of these hills will cost you a min. in 1/2 mile! So it just depends on course,

                              On the same courses I am very consistant except mabe 2x a year I run faster. Don't know why. Just a good day.

                              So_Im_a_Runner


                              Go figure

                                Counting only since I really became a runner (2010), my 5k time has deviated by about 1:30. My PR in that time is 17:27, and my slowest is 18:57.  Most fall between 18:00-18:30.

                                 

                                I've really only focused in marathons over that period, and that time has gone from 3:30 to 2:49.  The 5k PR came from the only time that I actually ran a little, specific 8 week 5k cycle.  I always tell myself I'd like to work on that 5k time, but it never happens.

                                Trying to find some more hay to restock the barn

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