2021 Sub 3:00 Marathon Thread (Read 387 times)


Elite Jogger

    Mikkey - my thought was that 40 waves of 1000 runners each seemed incredibly logistically challenging, without any benefit in return.  But perhaps I'm missing something.

     

     

    I checked my final instructions email and apparently everyone had an allocated start time between 9:30 and 11. Plus there’s always been 3 separate start lines and 4 assembly areas which I guess makes it a bit easier!

    5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)

    Running Problem


    Problem Child

      Cal What I've decided is the PACE I ran at will be used for the training moving forward. The missing 1/8 mile would be sub 40:00 for the 10k for sure. The "daniels table" calculator spreadsheet puts me around a 3:02:10-3:02:42 marathon. Just good enough (VDOT ~52.5) "The Magic of CIM" could take me to another secure BQ for 2023 if I put in the work. The Jack Daniels Running Formula 2nd edition says I'm sub 3:05, and just enough under to say "ah it won't get you in for '23 so there isn't a point going for it." I also think I held back a little because I was so afraid of blowing up, and first place was so far ahead I couldn't use him as motivation to push 6:15/mi pace. I will see how some speed/tempo/marathon pace training runs go before I fully commit to a sub 3 attempt, and as of right now, based off my recent "10k" performance, I'm capable of a sub 7:00/mi (4:19/km) marathon pace.

       

      EDIT: The spreadsheet also says I could do a 19:005k and I'm not sure I believe this either. I just raced a 5k in 19:34 at sea level. Maybe on the right day with the right competition and the right desire I could.

      Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

      VDOT 51

      5k19:35 | Marathon 2:59:10

      JMac11


      Milkman

        RP - you're the rarity where your short races don't give great insight into marathons. Either way, with CIM still 9 weeks away, I think you have to go for sub 3

         

        Cal - looking forward to hear how Boston goes. I was never interested in this version of it given the time of year and how warm it could be. The rolling starts seems weird to me. I think more likely than not, you are going to be weaving in and out of people. There's just no way it goes off in the right fashion like a normal corralled start. Some people will show up and go right to the start, whereas others may mosey around the starting village for 20 minutes. That's going to lead to 3:20 runners going off 3:00 runners.

         

        DW - I think you made the right decision, and agree with your perspective. Not only the recovery taking longer, but I think you lose more fitness tapering for a marathon than a half marathon. No reason to continue if you're going to have a bad race.

         

        Flavio - I like the idea of going for sub 3, but you do seem very down and about the race. My concern for you is not your fitness, but that you're going to hit a rough patch somewhere before mile 20 and just say "well this is it, this is where I blow up" instead of being confident you can work through it. The mental part of a marathon is by far the hardest of all races in my opinion, especially because you hit so many rough patches throughout, way earlier percentage-wise than other races (I've never been at the 1 mile mark of a 5K and had negative thoughts, where that has happened plenty of times between miles 8-10 of a marathon)

         

        Me - Interesting week for me. My Tuesday workout is what I consider to be the hardest of all JD workouts: long warmup and then 4x2 mile cruise intervals. It went very well, which was very encouraging. I was in the Dominican Republic for the next few days, and I suffered immensely in the heat/humidity. There's nothing like running in the tropics that shows you how seriously the heat can impact you. I didn't adjust enough the first run and probably felt worse at the end of that 10.5 miles than my 18 the 2 days prior. My runs progressively got slower there, and eventually I couldn't even finish 10 miles. That weather is what people like weatherboy deal with for 6 months of the year and I just don't know how they do it. No amount of heat adaptation prepares you for 75+ dew points every...single...day for 6 straight months.

         

        Speaking of TDP, humidity still too high here when I returned to NYC on Sunday, so bailed on my planned MP run this Sunday and changed it to a long tempo run instead. I only do 3 runs of MP and see them as key workouts. I didn't want to waste it on a high humidity day, giving me little insight into what my actual MP looks like, so I'll just run that this upcoming week instead when the forecast looks better. The workout Sunday is not something in JD's plans, but again, I don't directly follow his training to a tee and like incorporating other types of workouts where needed. It basically turned into a 6 miles at GMP workout (adjusted LT for 6 miles and with high humidity).

         

        Going up in mileage this week into the mid 80s and probably holding until taper. My legs have never felt this good so I probably could do a few weeks in the low 90s, but given a) I've never run that much before and b) the risk of injury vastly outweighs the benefits of just 2-3 weeks at that level, it probably makes more sense just to hold until taper time.

         

        Weekly for period: From: 09/27/2021 To 10/03/2021

        Date Name mi km Duration Avg/mi Avg/km Elevation Gain
        in ft
        09/27 Afternoon Run 10.39 16.71 01:20:46 07:46 04:50 407
        09/28 8E + 4x2T (5:47) + 2E 18.34 29.50 02:12:03 07:12 04:29 574
        09/30 Morning Run 10.50 16.90 01:20:54 07:42 04:47 164
        10/01 Morning Run 10.51 16.91 01:23:24 07:56 04:56 164
        10/02 Morning Run 8.01 12.88 01:05:40 08:12 05:06 154
        10/03 10E + 6"T"(5:58) + 2E 18.01 28.98 02:08:20 07:08 04:26 627

        Total distance: 75.75mi

        5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

         

        Next Race: Suffolk County Half (10/24)

        Running Problem


        Problem Child

          JMac I was thinking about your 10k time trials and "you should feel spent" comments about a 10k towards the end. While I didn't feel like I 100% drained the tank I DO feel like trying to kick from the last left turn (approximately 0.25 mi/400m) would have been a bad idea and I'd have lost all forward momentum/drive way too early. I was honestly expecting the entire race to feel MUCH worse both during and after. It was almost the same as just doing a hard workout. An hour or so later I felt just fine. I think you're 100% correct about my short distances. I've just focused on marathons so long, and/or genetics favor endurance more than speed. It was good to get back to racing regardless of place and PRs. Just the mentality of racing vs workouts is different. Bailing on a workout because I don't feel like it is one thing. Bailing on a race seems different. At least with so much solo training during 2021 being alone is normal, and I've a lot of practices "running my own race" by doing workouts properly. Also, as you said, and my wife kind of pointed out, CIM is far enough away I have to at least give CIM an honest effort. It might not be a PR, BUT it could be good enough for me to consider it a successful marathon. I'm actually sitting down thinking I could totally go for a run today and there is no reason to take any time off.

           

          Oh and nice workout yesterday. At least on paper the paces seem to be respectable. Just maybe a LITTLE more control for pace going downhill. I'm partial to a +/- 5 second window.

           

           

          My Week:

          Workouts went well. I took Thursday's Tempo/Marathon pace run off as part of a taper for the 10k. Aiming for 6:30/mi seemed like something I'd want to do on some fresh legs. The 3x1 mile run also felt good enough at a 6:20/mi pace (4:11/km) I thought I'd go for the 10k PR and see where I'm at physically for marathon training. I wasn't expecting to run as fast as I did (6:23/mi ave., 3:58/km) for the race and it seems to support the logic of training for where I'm at, racing to check in on how training is going, and as CommanderKeen said many times "it will come back" so I'll be going all in for this CIM BQ minus 3-5 minutes. I'm remembering when Cal said in 2019 he wasn't in sub 3 shape, maybe 3:01-2 and he was seconds behind me at the finish. I really had no goal for weekly mileage this week, and 50 is a good number for me mentally. 40 just doesn't seem like enough for marathon training. I'll have to type up a race report. Everyone loves those.

           

          Weekly for period: From: 09/27/2021 To 10/03/2021

           

          Date Name mi km Duration Avg/mi Avg/km Elevation Gain
          in ft
          09/27 That time I was Headstrong 💨 8.65 13.91 01:09:24 08:01 04:59 82
          09/28 That time I pass the dutchie on the left hand side. 10.23 16.46 01:21:25 07:58 04:57 161
          09/28 Tore tilla chips and gator aid 0.00 0.00 00:32:08 00:00 00:00 0
          09/29 That time a ‘Thank You’ probably doesn’t mean ‘Thank You.’ 6.51 10.47 00:55:21 08:30 05:17 289
          10/01 That time we train like we race. 6.84 11.01 01:00:33 08:51 05:30 95
          10/02 That time I needed arm warmers. 7.01 11.28 00:59:11 08:27 05:15 115
          10/03 That time I did a race warm up. 2.56 4.11 00:21:51 08:32 05:19 43
          10/03 That time I became the runner I was previously envious of. 🥈 6.11 9.83 00:38:58 06:23 03:58 89
          10/03 That time I had to move the car. 0.70 1.13 00:06:26 09:11 05:42 13
          10/03 Didnt fall. Successful. 1.39 2.24 00:00:58 00:42 00:26 0

          Total distance: 50.00mi

          Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

          VDOT 51

          5k19:35 | Marathon 2:59:10


          Elite Jogger

             

            Flavio - I like the idea of going for sub 3, but you do seem very down and about the race. My concern for you is not your fitness, but that you're going to hit a rough patch somewhere before mile 20 and just say "well this is it, this is where I blow up" instead of being confident you can work through it. The mental part of a marathon is by far the hardest of all races in my opinion, especially because you hit so many rough patches throughout, way earlier percentage-wise than other races (I've never been at the 1 mile mark of a 5K and had negative thoughts, where that has happened plenty of times between miles 8-10 of a marathon)

             

             

             

            Totally agree and I feel sad for Flavio as I have a lot of respect for him and would love it if he nails this marathon. During a marathon taper  it’s all about building yourself up and feeling invincible at the start line and getting into that zone mentally!

             

            RP - Sub 39 10k and silver medal? Nice. 👍

            5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)

            jhudak55


              Flavio: I wouldn’t go into the race planning to DNF if things don’t go well. Of course it’s always an option, but if you have it in the back of your mind going in it becomes more of an option.

               

              DW: Good call on switching to the half. You always seem to be very in tune with where you currently are fitness wise.

               

              Cal: Nice week and thanks for all of the advice recently. I often get discouraged when things aren’t going well and your advice has helped quite a lot. What is your plan for the Boston taper?

               

              JMac: Good call on swapping the MP workout. I agree that those sessions can be very encouraging or discouraging based on how they go.

               

              RP: Really nice 10k. It looks like you still had a good kick at the end too!

               

              My week:

              55.7 miles

               

              M&T: off

              W: 10.6 miles easy (9:08)

              T: 5 miles easy (9:07)

              F: 10.1 miles easy (9:01)

              S: 10 miles easy (8:52)

              S: 20 mile long run (8:29)

               

              Decent week for me, everything was kept much easier than I’ve been doing. My knee pain seems to be jumping around. This week my left knee was much improved, however the right knee started acting up during and after runs. I’ve been doing body weight injury prevention exercises, but I think much of the improvement has been keeping the paces easy.

               

              I was really happy with Sunday’s long run. I started out easy around 9 minute pace and very slowly worked my way down to 8 minute miles for the last couple. Today I have soreness, but no knee pain which has me hopeful.

               

              I’m now in an odd situation where I’m not really following Pfitzinger 18/70 any longer. I successfully completed all of the LT and MP workouts, but started having these issues right when I was supposed to start the VO2 max workouts. At this point I don’t plan on doing anything at a VO2 max effort. My plan (which is all subject to change based on how I progress and/or what issues pop up) is to run the following, take two days of rest per week and keep everything easy. No workouts this coming week, but maybe add in something next week or the following.

               

              10/4: 60 miles with 18 mile long run

              10/11: 65 miles with 22 mile long run

              10/18: 55 miles with 17 mile long run

              10/25: 46 miles with 13 mile long run

              11/1: 0,7,7,0,4,marathon

               

              Also, I won’t be running the half I had on the schedule for next weekend. Bummed I won’t get to race it, but Indy is the big goal so it doesn’t make sense pushing anything.

              CalBears


                 

                Additionally, you describe a marathon as the "best way to tune up all the systems" - I think that may be very individual.  For me, the 10 mile to HM distance is what I get the most training benefit from.

                 

                10 miles or HM is a good training, I agree, but you will never be able to experience in HM or 10 miler what you will experience during a marathon, especially during last 6-8 miles - and that's what I meant by "tuning" - until you feel it yourself, you won't know what to tune up Smile.

                 

                 

                I think our differences in opinion may also be because you seem to view the marathon as the ultimate race, and everything else as secondary.  I don't see it that way - to me, a race of any distance can be a worthy target/goal.

                 

                Ha-ha - that's a very loose statement Smile. If you don't mind me asking - how many 50K or 100K races (trail races) have you ran? I am about a dozen of those. Does it clear me out from "viewing" marathon as an ultimate race? I've ran bunch of 5K, 10K, 10 milers and HMs, but I consider FM as a best bang for the money - 5Ks and 10Ks are way too short to experience any elation from running - actually, quite opposite, in addition that they are short, they are also painful Smile (not painful as 100K in 85oF under direct sun, but that is a different story). So, I usually run all those shorter races as a speedier preparation for an FM.

                 

                JMac - after running 3 Boston races (following most of them since 2012), I came to a conclusion - Boston's weather at any time of the year is as much of a lottery as anything else. For example, looking at the weather forecast right now for Monday, I don't see how the weather on Oct 11 would be much different from what I had during 2014 race. And if they have showers and clouds on that day as it shows, then it would be even better than in 2014, or even 2016. So, sorry - any discussion on getting a better Boston weather in April than in October don't make any sense. Not for Boston anyway.

                 

                Great weekly mileage, btw - and so early in October - basically two months are still ahead. Not to mention all the quality work.

                 

                RP - you seem to acquire speed. Now you need to start working on mileage. 40 mpw won't work for guaranteed sub 3, even with the confirmation of all your new PRs for shorter distances. Just looks at flavio and his HM PR. Smile

                paces PRs - 5K - 5:48  /  10K - 6:05  /  HM - 6:14  /  FM - 6:26 per mile


                Elite Jogger

                  JMac is the milkman on this thread..he always delivers (on race day)...and speaks the most sense. 👍

                  5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)

                    rp - very nice

                    Running Problem


                    Problem Child

                      RP - you seem to acquire speed. Now you need to start working on mileage. 40 mpw won't work for guaranteed sub 3, even with the confirmation of all your new PRs for shorter distances. Just looks at flavio and his HM PR. Smile

                       

                      Hey we all have our strengths and weaknesses. I don't think I'll be able to make the showdown in NYC in the next few years. I'll either have to go for a 1:22 half marathon (not happening) or enter the lottery.

                       

                      rovatti Thanks. Never thought I'd be this fast. I seriously though it was for elite athletes that did college stuff or high school stuff, or were naturally gifted.

                       

                       

                      EDIT:

                      https://nebraska.tv/news/nation-world/cdc-recommends-virtual-thanksgiving-this-year

                      HUNT VALLEY, Md. (SBG) — Despite vaccinations, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still recommends people celebrate Thanksgiving virtually this year.

                      Updated guidance states that attending gatherings for events and holidays still increases the risk of getting and spreading COVID-19, especially with the threat of the highly transmissible delta variant. 

                      Anyone want to have a virtual Thanksgiving this year? I have absolutely no clue what my relatives/parents/family is doing and I probably associated with people her more than there. It can be a giant zoom meeting where no one can hear anything, and everyone tries to talk over the other person with long awkward pauses in-between.

                      Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

                      VDOT 51

                      5k19:35 | Marathon 2:59:10

                      JMac11


                      Milkman

                        Mikkey - you are too kind. I've thrown up some eggs this summer. Ready to get to work though on the 2 real goals here: my half marathon in 2 weeks and the ultimate CIM goal. Hoping a shitty spring is offset by my longest marathon cycle.

                         

                        Cal - April weather in Boston is more unpredictable, but you can definitely get a good day (Boston 2020, if it was run, was a perfect upper 40s at race time). You have to get very lucky in mid October in Boston, it's just not late enough in the year. Case in point: average high temperature on April 15 is 53 degrees in Boston. On October 11? 62 degrees. It's not even close. The problem though is more that Boston has crazy high volatility in weather, especially in the spring. That April 2020, the high temperature was 71 degrees on April 10. 3 days later on April 13? 23 degrees. We never see swings like that in NYC and we're only a couple hundred miles south. It's just frankly a terrible town to run a marathon in (weather-wise, not people-wise).

                         

                        JHUD - great sign that the pain is moving around. That guarantees you are on the mend.

                         

                        I noticed this afternoon JT hasn't posted. It looks like that taper injury got to him as he is not really run the past few days. What a bummer. Looks like Hartford weather isn't too terrible this Saturday either: upper 50s, low-ish dew points, and cloudy.

                        5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                         

                        Next Race: Suffolk County Half (10/24)

                          I've run 6 October marathons in Eastern Massachusetts and one in Connecticut, and I've run Boston 8 times. I think I'd take the weather in any of those 7 October races over any of those Bostons.

                           

                          IMO, October is a way better month to run a marathon in Massachusetts than April. It's generally less humid and the angle of the sun is a lot lower. And you can't underestimate the value of being much more acclimated to the heat after a summer marathon cycle.

                          Runners run

                          JMac11


                          Milkman

                            Good to see you here!

                             

                            Sun angle is a good point. Effectively 2 months difference between them on that one.

                             

                            The humidity is not true though. The dew point is definitely higher in October than April based on the data.

                             

                            The heat training though may cancel it all out. I can easily race a marathon at 60F in the fall and would only consider that slightly less than ideal (B+ weather), whereas 60 in April is C weather.

                            5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:28 (3/20)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                             

                            Next Race: Suffolk County Half (10/24)

                              I trust you on the dew point but it certainly *feels* less humid in October. Probably a function of being acclimated. I just know that October is the best month of the year to race in New England. When they announced Boston would be in October I admit I thought about signing up for a minute ...

                              Runners run

                              flavio1980


                              Intl. correspondent

                                DW - Best of luck with your string of half races. 

                                I see you comment towards Cal but I think more people on this board consider the marathon the Queen of all races and only ever run other races as tune ups with no taper.

                                Of course that’s an individual choice but I, like yourself, see all distances as possible targets and will taper even for a 1500 race.

                                 

                                Cal - I see now you can understand how a 1h22 half does not translate to a sub 3 marathon 😁

                                Re: your comment to Darkwave, when you say 5ks or 10ks are too short, that absolutely means you relish more the longer races. You see I very much love the 1500, I find it wonderful cause I perform best at that distance naturally. We're at almost opposite sides of the spectrum.

                                We tend to take for granted the things that come easy. You have enormous strength and muscle endurance. When others can't perform the same exceptional feats that you perform, it's not always because they have weak minds 😀

                                 

                                RP - I need to apologize to you. Few weeks ago I was lecturing you about how you needed to calm the fuck down only to find myself having a nuclear meltdown over a high blood pressure diagnosis.

                                I offer to make amends and we’ll have an Açaí together at Acai Berry on Wedge Parkway some day in Reno.

                                Fantastic job at the 10k, your shorter distances are catching up, kudos on the top 2 finish.

                                Over time you might start to relish more the placement results than times.

                                 

                                Jmac/JHud - I’m certain I can work through rough patches that are only mental. Come race day I’ll be feeling like super man most likely.

                                I was meaning muscular failure (aka cramps on both quads at the same time so you can barely walk forward, stuff like that). I have not heard if either of you had that before in longer races, but you cannot will yourself out of that.

                                If I have that, there’s not much I can do other than DNF and live to fight another day.

                                Also by really bad fade I didn’t mean like Jmac’s fading in Boston to a PR. I meant you start walking so slowly that people are passing you while walking. 

                                If I get to that stage, then I’m also ready to DNF as I don’t think the long term injuries are worth it.

                                I will agree with you that I def. should not be thinking of those possibilities right now.

                                 

                                Jmac/Milkman - Another excellent week from a retired runner.

                                 

                                JHud - It’s good to see you back on track and already a monster 20 miler in there.

                                 

                                Sub 3 - I think as race day approaches my confidence will grow. I’m in excellent aerobic shape, I’m def stronger physically than during previous marathon attempts, heck I think I might have a 6 pack, which means lower body fat and almost optimal weight.

                                I’ve also strung along several long runs that even if not perfect in terms of distance, did go very well.

                                I also think a fade to a 3h05 is a good B target given the recent disruptions.

                                We’ll be traveling on Thursday to Bregenz in Austria where the race takes place and I’m taking a break from work starting tomorrow.

                                I think these factors will help out recover more and more importantly clear my mind for race day (some electronic detox always helps)

                                PRs: 1500 4:51 2019 - 5K 17:56 2021 HM 1:21:59 2021

                                Up next: Rest and recover

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