2021 Sub 3:00 Marathon Thread (Read 423 times)

JMac11


Milkman

     

    I move we removed commanderkeen from the official record boards until he accepts a 2:57 or faster marathon target.

     

     

     

    I originally thought the same thing that keen's goal would be soft if he set it at 2:59:XX, but he did struggle with that MP run and couldn't hold sub 3:00 pace, so there's justification to just say sub 3.

     

    I say this as someone who refused to set my goal at 5:5X overall pace at CIM (2:37:12) and just said sub 2:40. JT was spot on with his prediction though of where I'd end up. He probably knows the best goal for keen! 

    5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:00 (10/21)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

     

    Next Race: Unknown 

    Running Problem


    Problem Child

       

      I originally thought the same thing that keen's goal would be soft if he set it at 2:59:XX, but he did struggle with that MP run and couldn't hold sub 3:00 pace, so there's justification to just say sub 3.

       

      I say this as someone who refused to set my goal at 5:5X overall pace at CIM (2:37:12) and just said sub 2:40. JT was spot on with his prediction though of where I'd end up. He probably knows the best goal for keen! 

       

      I’m standing by a 2:57 and his 12x800 ‘not Yasso 800s’ workout is my supporting evidence. We’ve all struggled with M pace at some point during training I think. Well, maybe not me when I fully committed to sub 3. I struggled on race day.

      Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

      VDOT 51

      5k19:35 | Marathon 2:59:10


      Elite Jogger

        Keen - Congrats on the 10k PR and all the more impressive on a 91 mile week!  I honestly think you’ve got the ability to go under 2:55 at CIM...if you’re capable of getting into a positive frame of mind and believe you can do it. 👍

        5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)


        Elite Jogger

          You’ve got a coach and sometimes that can be a good or bad thing. If you’re happy with a safe 2:59 then you’ll probably run a 2:59.

          5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)

          darkwave


          Mother of Cats

            You’ve got a coach and sometimes that can be a good or bad thing. If you’re happy with a safe 2:59 then you’ll probably run a 2:59.

             

            FWIW, I think better to get a sub-3 under your belt and THEN go for faster.  Especially if you've been in form for sub-3 for years and just keep having bad luck.

            Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

             

            And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

            JMac11


            Milkman

              My first marathon was 3:12. For the second one, I wanted a sub 3, but just ran what I felt was right, which turned out to be around 6:40 pace. I was able to negative split for a 2:54. Keen is a much more experienced marathoner than I was at the time. I think he can go out in 6:40-6:45 pace (by GPS, so a bit slower). He doesn't need to run exactly 6:51 the entire way. That shouldn't lead to a blow up, and gives him an opportunity to go quicker.

               

              I do think if he's clicking off any 6:3X miles it would be a mistake. Just keep it 6:4X throughout. If you have a great day, that's sub 2:55. If it's a not so great, should still get the sub 3. Easy, right? 

              5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:00 (10/21)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

               

              Next Race: Unknown 

              Running Problem


              Problem Child

                2:55 puts him at BQ-10 for 2023. He could sandbag THAT race, and qualify for 2024 with the "getting older discount" time extension and only have to run a 3:05. With proper weather on race day I think he has enough shorter distance speed he could hold back to "the wall" at mile 20, and pick it up going over the bridge, and through all the flat roads downtown. Pancake flat with 90 degree turns are his bread and butter. He with most likely be in a small group of runners during the race (it might feel big compared to his local races) of 5 runners or so which makes aid stations easier.

                 

                I'll be seeing how I feel today. Stomach hasn't been too happy this morning, but it's getting better. I haven't eaten too much since Monday which might not help, but eating doesn't make it feel better. IDEALLY it will be gone so I can get another M paced run in tomorrow.

                 

                JMac when would you say is the LAST DAY to do 6E +10M +2E? Hanson's says 10 day taper, and has 10M scheduled for Thanksgiving. I believe you said this workout is to target the last 10 miles of the race on tired legs. I just don't know what kind of recovery it would take, or if doing it 10 days before a race would ruin me.

                Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.

                VDOT 51

                5k19:35 | Marathon 2:59:10

                JTReeves


                   

                  I originally thought the same thing that keen's goal would be soft if he set it at 2:59:XX, but he did struggle with that MP run and couldn't hold sub 3:00 pace, so there's justification to just say sub 3.

                   

                  I say this as someone who refused to set my goal at 5:5X overall pace at CIM (2:37:12) and just said sub 2:40. JT was spot on with his prediction though of where I'd end up. He probably knows the best goal for keen! 

                   

                  Keen is harder for me to judge since I wasn't following his training in detail for years like with you JMac. He seems to be the type of runner who is cautious in workouts (like Darkwave), meaning he errs on the side of a slower pace than target rather than a faster pace. Thus he should perform better in races than one might expect based on the workouts. Anyway, just the 10k result indicates 2:55, especially on the CIM course (yes Cal, gravity is the weakest of the 4 fundamental forces but is nonetheless in one's favor at CIM ). That assumes his performance extrapolates from 10k to the longer distance, but with the huge mileage and lots of long runs it seems like a safe assumption. So I would say capable of 2:55 on a flat course, and on CIM, capable of 2:50-2:52 (if everything goes right). But he seems fairly cautious so he may go for the safe sub-3 with a big negative split.

                   

                  I think Cal will go sub 2:55 at least. Even if not in perfect shape he is the master of the marathon and will run a super smart race. Cal can run fast marathons using his brain alone.

                   

                  RP: Sorry man, I have no idea what to expect from you. Could be 2:55, could be 3:05. Your training at 4000 ft should give a significant advantage but you need to get to the line with a positive mindset.

                  2:52:16 (2018)

                  JMac11


                  Milkman

                     

                     (yes Cal, gravity is the weakest of the 4 fundamental forces but is nonetheless in one's favor at CIM )

                     

                    This gave me a good chuckle. Anyway totally agree with everything you said. Glad we all decided keen should go for mid 2:5X.

                     

                    RP - that seems like way too big of a workout 10 days out. I would do something like 4E + 10M + 2E this weekend.

                    5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:00 (10/21)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                     

                    Next Race: Unknown 

                    darkwave


                    Mother of Cats

                       

                      . So I would say capable of 2:55 on a flat course, and on CIM, capable of 2:50-2:52

                       

                      Jumping in to note that I think CIM is equivalent to a flat course, and not faster. It may just be me and the fact that I don't like rolling hills, but I felt there was enough climbing and rhythm disruption to balance out any advantage from the net downhill.

                       

                      (yes, I know we've had this discussion umpteen times)

                      Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                       

                      And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                      JMac11


                      Milkman

                        (yes, I know we've had this discussion umpteen times)

                         

                        What are friends for if it's not discussing the same thing over and over?

                         

                        It's funny people's preferences: I LOVED the rolling hills of CIM and strongly prefer that over a completely dead flat course. Probably because it mimics the topography of Central Park so well (albeit it net downhill over the long run). It just makes the course seem to go by quicker as you "prepare" for the uphills and then "rejuvenate" on the downhills. But otherwise I agree, I think a dead flat course for most people will result in a faster time.

                         

                        Anddddd now I'm sad I can't run it . Speaking of which - MRI scheduled for next Wedensday since apparently nobody takes MRIs the day before Thanksgiving so the calendar was fairly open at the office. My guess is I'll know results early the following week, but maybe sooner if the radiologists enjoy working Fridays in their dark antisocial labs.

                        5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:00 (10/21)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                         

                        Next Race: Unknown 

                        SteveChCh


                        Hot Weather Complainer

                          darkwave - Should be safe since JMac vowed to never discuss it again.  Edit:  Woops, spoke too soon...or not soon enough 

                           

                          I had Keen pegged for a comfortable sub 3 last time out which was ruined by heat and illness so I'm predicting 2:57.xx even though I think he's probably capable of sub 2:55.  The ghosts of marathons past may lead to a cautious approach which makes total sense.

                           

                          JMac - I hope you get a a non-terrible result from the MRI and can start planning again.

                          PB:  Christchurch 2016 1:29.25

                          Recent Races:    Selwyn Running Festival Half-Marathon 1:29:32  November 7, 2021

                          Race plan:  Christchurch Marathon April 10, 2022 (Target: Sub 3:20)

                          darkwave


                          Mother of Cats

                            , but maybe sooner if the radiologists enjoy working Fridays in their dark antisocial labs.

                             

                            My mother was a pathologist (now retired).  She told me she picked that route because she wanted to practice medicine, but didn't want to deal with patients.

                             

                            (my father is a psychiatrist, so pretty much patient interaction personified....)

                             

                            Good luck with the MRI, and lucky you.  I couldn't get mine until Dec 4....

                            Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                             

                            And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                            JMac11


                            Milkman

                              darkwave - Should be safe since JMac vowed to never discuss it again.  Edit:  Woops, spoke too soon...or not soon enough 

                               

                               

                              I will always talk about CIM. I agreed to never talk about short downhill course PRs ever again. Don't confuse them! If we didn't talk about the CIM course, what would JT and Cal ever argue about???

                               

                              Thanks on the MRI. I hope so too. A stress fracture would be devastating as recovery from those is so uncertain and I don't feel like taking 8 weeks off and building back up like I've never run a day in my life (which is what they sort of require unfortunately, having gone through one in the past). I'm already going to be a slug through the winter given the minimum 4 weeks I'll be taking, I'd like to at least give myself a chance to race well come the spring!

                               

                              ETA: Slow Wednesday at the office, this thread is flying! DW - can you get on a waiting list? I imagine people cancel these things fairly frequently 24 hours in advance since there is such a long lead time to them that some conditions clear up before you need the test. I'd also check for the day before Thanksgiving again, their calendar was 100% full and then the day before Thanksgiving she said "you can basically come in whenever you want". Probably the day after too if the office is open.

                              5K: 16:37 (11/20)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:15:00 (10/21)  |  FM: 2:36:31 (12/19) 

                               

                              Next Race: Unknown 

                              CalBears


                                RP - yes, absolutely - there is no comparison in strength power between how I can swear in Russian and in English. I probably do not know English enough from the depth of it and that's why all the swearing I heard in English seems so very soft to me. Or maybe Russian is just a more dirty language. But in few situations when there was no time to think how to express my anger I was shouting in Russian - and the "audience" was definitely perplexed

                                 

                                keen - I agree with most of what other said - very great advice and discussion all around. In my opinion, it's mostly up to you - your latest 10K without taper time and your long time weekly mileage shows you can easily go low 2:50s, with some conservative approach you can go 2:55-2:57 and if you just have a goal of finally breaking sub 3, then yes, you can just aim for 2:58-2:59. Should be totally your decision - because positivity and confidence you can do that are very big factors too (when all the outside conditions are good). With one caveat, your confidence should be real, imho, if you sure you can break sub 2:55, go for it - I do not think anybody here will say you are not able to do that - you certainly are. But there are doubts in your mind, go slower, for a target you really believe in. Or, I as I said before, go for a mixed solution, start sub 2:59 and decide mile 15-16 if you are ready for more. There is a mental caveat with that hybrid decision - mind can work a trick on you and you might feel you are pretty tired at mile 16 and that would "help" you decide against "more" Smile. Yeah, I know, I covered everything from 2:50 to 2:59 Smile.

                                 

                                CIM course discussion. Gravity you say. Ok... After running Revel race and learning what the real gravity is (and even that course has miles 2-9 that many of us would trade for a flat ones Smile ), I will not be discussing CIM anymore Smile. Mikkey, you want to share your opinion about New York course - go for it, you earned that right, you ran it. Did you run CIM? Or you just looked at the course profile? Oh, you didn't run it? Then either come and run it or just keep quiet re CIM. JTR - sorry man, you are such a nice guy, but the same relates to you too Smile. Make plans for next year, come in December to CIM and then tell us what you think. I see times and times again runners change their opinions after they finally ran the course. Btw, I know runners who disliked the course so much they never want to come back - probably because it is so "downhill" . And just for info - there is only one pure downhill mile at CIM - mile 1, which many people take conservatively anyway. I know, it will not end the "discussion", but - nevertheless 

                                paces PRs - 5K - 5:48  /  10K - 6:05  /  HM - 6:14  /  FM - 6:26 per mile