2021 Sub 3:00 Marathon Thread (Read 309 times)

flavio1980


Intl. correspondent

    Jmac - Nobody wants the Jmac Sac (though there’s an obvious dirty joke in there starting with “except” that I will not make).

    Also, the rules are the rules and RBBMoose is a living legend!

    Talking about him, does anybody here have his contact and can convince him to drop by?

     

    Cal - As others have said, 2nd and 3rd laps are key. The first one will feel super easy and you can “see the finish line” on the last one. 3rd is the hardest.

    The 1500/mile is 1/3 anaerobic, so you will have to use your strength and power, it’s not just aerobic. If you executed it well you will feel tired in the end as if you just finished a strength workout.

    I say go out in 80 seconds per lap and hold on for dear life. You probably could run much faster but I’m assuming you’re not tapering at all for it so I’m saying a conservative estimate of 5:20 to 5:30.

    If you run a 5:50 mile you have run it entirely aerobic and you did it wrong 😁

    Good luck!

    PRs: 5K 17:56.7 (2021) 9.86K 36:40 (2020) HM 1:21:59 (2021)

    Up next: 3 countries marathon - Oct 10th

    Tool to generate Strava weekly


    Elite Jogger

      If Cal runs 5 seconds slower than a 5:30 mile then he’ll be the first person to receive a tweed JMAC Sack.

       

      Can I get a confirmation on that?

      5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)


      Elite Jogger

         

         

        Jmac - Nobody wants the Jmac Sac (though there’s an obvious dirty joke in there starting with “except” that I will not make).

        Also, the rules are the rules and RBBMoose is a living legend!

        Talking about him, does anybody here have his contact and can convince him to drop by?

         

         

         

        He was a legend and used to post in the sub 2:40/competitive jerks thread back in the Runnersworld days....that’s why my goal was to win a Moose Mug because it was challenging myself!  I couldn’t give a fuck if people in my AG beat me because of taking drugs....that is their problem as I’m only interested in myself when it comes to running. 👍

         

        Anyone who wants to contact Ray for Moose Mug...email is ray.bentley@bentley.com

        5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)


        Elite Jogger

          Boston 2022 will be the first time that I’m not interested in goal time and will be running carefully and keeping my eye on Cal.

           

          I’m being optimistic as we might all be dead from covid by next year....especially as there’s a new Moscow variant now!

          5k - 17:53 (4/19)   10k - 37:53 (11/18)   Half - 1:23:18 (4/19)   Full - 2:50:43 (4/19)

          zebano


             

            Hair sample shows a continued use. Burrito defense might actually hold weight when you can show there is no extended use of the substance and maybe actually show she didn't "take it" in the "I'm trying to get an advantage" sense. Then again we're in the "guilty by way of social pressure" age so there is absolutely nothing I can say to make anyone change their mind.

             

            thankfully this same agency let some other athlete fail 4 samples taken over two months get the same punishment as someone who failed once. I see it as giving someone who got their first DUI the exact same punishment as someone who had 3 DUIs and killed a kid each time. Both had a DUI. Both runners tested positive. Absolutely no reason to look into it beyond the one test administered. End of discussion.

             

            EDIT: This just gives me one more reason to NOT watch the Olympics. The other big reason is the whole "these are amateur athletes doing it for the love of the sport. They need to be paid" blah blah blah crap on social media.

             

            Nobody alleged continued use  . Continued use has absolutely nothing to do with the rules regarding this situation. I'm not familiar with who you're referring to that failed 4 times and throwing in killing a kid. WTF???

             

            Other athletes who ate contaminated meat is at least interesting though my admittedly  cursory investigation suggests those that got off like Ajee had actual trace amounts while Shelby had twice the defined limit. Anyway the point I wanted to make was the study I've seen thrown around suggests to get these levels of nandrolone the subjects ate 300g of offal. Have you ever made a burrito with 300g of meat in it? Think about that for am minute, that's a 3/4 pound of presumably liver meat, there's no room for rice, beans, guac or anything else that makes it more than just a monstrous amount of meat. Full disclosure the subjects in the study were men, not 115 pound woman so we should probably adjust that proportionally but even half a pound of meat is an absurd amount to come from one burrito.

             

             

            "guilty by way of social pressure"

             

             

            ..They're not amateur athletes. Shelby is (was) a professional runner. It's her livelihood. The Olympics hasn't been a amateur endeavor for awhile now. Do you remember the dream team?

             

             

             

            Jmac - Nobody wants the Jmac Sac 

             

            That's what she said

             

            (ducks)

             

             

            https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/CAS_Media_Release_7977.pdf

            Finally, the CAS Panel unanimously determined that Shelby Houlihan had failed, on the balance of
            probability, to establish the source of the prohibited substance. As a result of which she was found to
            have committed an intentional ADRV and sanctioned with a four-year period of ineligibility starting
            on 14 January 2021.

             

            The CAS Panel has issued its decision only, without the grounds which will be notified in short order.

             

            What does "without the grounds" mean? Regardless I think this is interesting in that CAS only has to determine probability not absolute guilt or intention to cheat. This is much less rigorous than a court of law where a defendant is innocent until proven guilty.

            1600 - 5:23 (2018), 5k - 19:33 (2018), 10k - 45:24 (2017), half - 1:38:57 (2018), Mary - 3:37:17 (2018)

            darkwave


            Mother of Cats

               

               

               

              What does "without the grounds" mean? Regardless I think this is interesting in that CAS only has to determine probability not absolute guilt or intention to cheat. This is much less rigorous than a court of law where a defendant is innocent until proven guilty.

               

              "The grounds" are the reasoning behind the decision - what evidence did they consider and why did they rule the way they did.  Right now we have what they decided, but not why.  The why is coming.

               

              Should also note, the "balance of probability" seems to only apply once there is a positive drug test.  That drug test shifts the burden to the athlete, who then has to prove by the balance of the probabilities that there was another reason for the positive test result besides doping.  The weaker standard is in favor of the athlete.

              Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

               

              And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

              zebano


                 

                "The grounds" are the reasoning behind the decision - what evidence did they consider and why did they rule the way they did.  Right now we have what they decided, but not why.  The why is coming.

                 

                Should also note, the "balance of probability" seems to only apply once there is a positive drug test.  That drug test shifts the burden to the athlete, who then has to prove by the balance of the probabilities that there was another reason for the positive test result besides doping.  The weaker standard is in favor of the athlete.

                 

                Gracias.

                1600 - 5:23 (2018), 5k - 19:33 (2018), 10k - 45:24 (2017), half - 1:38:57 (2018), Mary - 3:37:17 (2018)

                Andres1045


                  Should also note, the "balance of probability" seems to only apply once there is a positive drug test.  That drug test shifts the burden to the athlete, who then has to prove by the balance of the probabilities that there was another reason for the positive test result besides doping.  The weaker standard is in favor of the athlete.

                   

                  I'm not sure what you mean by the "weaker standard is in favor of the athlete." Seems to be some significant burden shifting. If it's in your system, we are going to assume it was an intentional violation. You can prove us wrong, but it's up to you, and you have to do it by a preponderance of the evidence.

                   

                  If it was a criminal case, the positive test result would be like a finding beyond a reasonable doubt, and then you could prove some sort of affirmative defense by a preponderance. Seems a bit harsh and a lot of weight to put on that test.

                   

                  -------

                   

                  Just to be clear, I don't know anything about the test, this woman, or doping in sports in general. The above is just my natural inclination to try and defend someone. Overall, I don't give a crap about any distance sports, because how much it's been tainted by doping. I want to believe the individual, but wouldn't be surprised if any of the athletes were doping. And that's sad. So if you need to be stricter than necessary to clean up the sport, I'm for that.

                  Upcoming races: Boston

                  darkwave


                  Mother of Cats

                     

                    I'm not sure what you mean by the "weaker standard is in favor of the athlete." Seems to be some significant burden shifting. If it's in your system, we are going to assume it was an intentional violation. You can prove us wrong, but it's up to you, and you have to do it by a preponderance of the evidence.

                     

                    -------

                     

                    I meant that, given the process, which appears to be:

                     

                    1) initial burden is on the agency, and met by a positive test result.

                     

                    2) burden is shifted to athlete to provide an alternate explanation for the positive result

                     

                    it is in the athlete's favor to have a weaker standard to meet to prove the alternate explanation.  It's far easier for Houlihan's team to satisfy "a balance of the probabilities" than "beyond a reasonable doubt."  (though in the end they apparently didn't hit either)

                     

                    I think your point is that you don't think there should be burden-shifting to begin with.  My point was - given that there is burden shifting, at least she doesn't have to prove her excuse beyond a reasonable doubt.

                     

                    ****

                     

                    As I was thinking about the burden shifting, I realized how parallel this all is to speeding camera tickets.  Once the camera catches you, the burden shifts to you to show why you shouldn't get fined.

                    Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                     

                    And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                    darkwave


                    Mother of Cats

                      In other news, I am in Duluth.  Previous reply to Zebano was written on my cell phone from a Chipotle just outside of Minneapolis.  Where I ended up getting both beef and chicken, but no pork.  I did rice bowls and not burritos, so this marathon is doomed.

                      Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                       

                      And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

                      dpschumacher


                      Making a comeback

                        Lol and welcome

                        In other news, I am in Duluth.  Previous reply to Zebano was written on my cell phone from a Chipotle just outside of Minneapolis.  Where I ended up getting both beef and chicken, but no pork.  I did rice bowls and not burritos, so this marathon is doomed.

                         

                        New 2020 Goal: Actually run a race, any race, just run a real legit race. **Eye Twitching**

                        USATFMN XC 6k Lake Elmo Championship 21:49

                         

                        2021 Goals for my 2 marathon cycles this year

                        Marathon Sub 2:40 2:39:27 Grandma's Marathon 6/19/21

                        10k Sub 35:00 in Marathon build

                        5k Sub 16:30 in Marathon build /16:34 BK5K Memorial Day 2021

                        zebano


                          Darkwave - best of luck tomorrow morning! It's a shame they can't start the race at 6am, that would be much more comfortable. Oh well, good job avoiding a failed drug test by getting chicken and beef! I commend your adherence to the rules.

                           

                          If anyone hasn't seen Shelby is now being allowed to race because she's apparently appealing her ban, though how or why is unknown. This is quite a show . 

                           

                          Anyways I don't care to register on LetsRun and since you guys have been discussing this, what are the potential ramifications to other athletes or UST&F for allowing her to race? I assume for her part, the ban starts over instead of starting in January.

                           

                          1. I think it's a given that she won't be allowed in the Olympics so the top 3 finishers  not including her will be represent the US.

                          2. Some people on lets run have cited Wada regulation 2.10 as a reason that anyone who races her could be sanctioned/banned but I don't think that's accurate as that deals specifically with athletes interacting with a known & banned "Athlete support personnel" not other athletes (however it would apply if for instance Rupp sought guidance from Salazar).

                           

                          https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/2021_wada_code.pdf

                           

                          2.10 Prohibited Association by an Athlete or Other Person
                          2.10.1 Association by an Athlete or other Person subject
                          to the authority of an Anti-Doping Organization in
                          a professional or sport-related capacity with any
                          Athlete Support Person who:

                          1600 - 5:23 (2018), 5k - 19:33 (2018), 10k - 45:24 (2017), half - 1:38:57 (2018), Mary - 3:37:17 (2018)

                          SteveChCh


                          Hot Weather Complainer

                            Might be the last chance for both to see, but good luck darkwave and dps.  I'll be following you early Monday morning NZ time if I'm awake (which is likely given recent struggles to sleep and a big cricket match being played overnight in England).

                             

                            You both seem primed for great results based on the last few months of training.

                             

                            EDIT: Just looked it up and see it will be Sunday morning NZ time starting at 12:45am...unless the cricket is great I may just see your results when I wake up 

                            PB:  Christchurch 2016 1:29.25

                            Recent Races:    Queenstown Half-Marathon (trail) November 21, 2020 1:35.11 Cherry Blossom Half-Marathon, September 13, 2020 1:33:38 Half-Marathon Time Trial May 31, 2020 1:31.51  

                            Race plan:  Dunedin Half-Marathon September 12 (Target: PR), Queenstown Half-Marathon November 20 (Target: Queenstown PR), Christchurch Marathon April 10, 2022 (Target: Sub 3:20 and no cancellation)

                            CalBears


                              Darkwave - best of luck tomorrow morning!

                               

                              Wait... Tomorrow morning? On Friday?

                               

                              Anyway - good luck to both, DW and DPS! Let's finally open the official racing season (yes, they lift all the restrictions in California since Jun 15 - so, now I just need to keep my fingers in control and not to register for too many races Smile )

                              paces PRs - 5K - 5:55  /  10K - 6:05  /  HM - 6:14  /  FM - 6:26 per mile

                              darkwave


                              Mother of Cats

                                Thanks all - it's Saturday morning.  It's a decently long trip (a bit over 2 hours of flying and a bit over 2 hours of driving) so I always go up on Thursday.

                                 

                                DPS - I'm going to PM you my contact info.  I'm now flying back Saturday night (flight leaves at 8 pm), but should have time for a brief post-race forum encounter if you are up for it.

                                Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                                 

                                And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.