Most of you know me, so I won't go into all the back story or history, but I'll put some info for reference. I have just about decided on my goal pace, and would like to hear some thoughts/opinions. There are many more pace groups available, but I'll only reference the ones that pertain to me. I am recently coming off a PF injury, so my summer mileage was really low, but I have ramped back up coming into the fall and early winter.
My mileage has been in the mid to high 30's, with some 40's and a 50 over the past 3 months. My monthly mileage has been in the 130's-140's for most of the year except during the summer. I would have easily hit 180 if not for taking a solid week off in Nov. My log is public, so feel free to look if you want to.
I have completed 6 halves with the 2 most recent ones in Oct and Nov with times of 2:03 and 1:56 respectively. The calculators point to a 3:55 based on my half PR of 1:51, but this is not a goal. I feel using the 2 most recent halves is a decent gauge of my fitness.
So, the 1:56 half gives me a full time of 4:05 for a 9:22 pace
Or, the 2:03 half gives me a full time of 4:19 for a 9:55 pace
The pace groups available (for my range) are
4:00 for a 9:10 pace
4:10 for a 9:33 pace
4:25 for a 10:07 pace
4:40 for a 10:41 pace
(there are no other paces in between)
Based on my easy run and LR paces during training that range from 9:30-10:30, here are my goals
First, I won't be racing, so just want to finish with a respectable showing(for me)
A - Go out with the 4:10 pace group as long as they aren't banking time
B - Fall in with the 4:25 pace group if I need to slow after starting
C - Don't let the 4:40 pace group pass me
I will be tickled pink if I can run a 9:45 pace for the whole thing.
So, is going out with the 4:10 pace group for a 9:33 pace too aggressive? I absolutely will have no problem starting with the 4:25 group either. But mostly, I just want to be in the middle of the 2 groups somewhere.
Thanks,
Mitch
Based upon your mileage (which is a bit low after your PF issue) and your recent races, I would start with the 4:25 and see how you feel after 18 miles and if needed, speed up. I would say 4:15-4:20 is an achievable goal, but I am not sure.
How have the paces been for your longest runs and how have you felt during and after them?
Damaris
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KillJoyFuckStick
With average mileage in the 30-40 range forget the pace calculators.
You people have issues
I think it sort of depends on how ok you would be with a possible crash and burn. The more conservative approach is to go with the plan Damaris suggested. The possible crash and burn scenario is to go out with the 4:10 pace group. Now that I've seen your mileage outlined, I fear 4:10 might be a bit of a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibility. If you are ok with the possibility of an uncomfortable (and possibly much slower) 10k, then start with the 4:10 group. If you want a more pleasant experience and a strong finish, start with the 4:25 group and pick It up later. A third option, of course, is to pace yourself between 4:15 and 4:20 but I know how difficult pacing yourself can be, especially in your first marathon.
I'm not sure if this has been helpful, but whatever you decide, I wish you the best!!
I agree with most of what's been said. 4:10 seems aggressive, 4:25 is a safer bet, although will probably feel very slow for you until late in the race. If you definitely want to go with a pace group, the Docket option seems reasonable.
My first marathon was 4:16, off a 2:01 half. I was severely undertrained, started way too fast, finished with a miserable death march, and took me a week afterwards to recover to the point where I could run at all. It is very hard to know the right pace without a lot of experience. You will probably feel better about the race if you can play it safer & finish strong. Unless you plan to be one & done, then maybe you go for it.
Dave
Damaris, LR's have been between 10:00-10:30 for the most. I generally recover quickly.
FSocks, I know my mileage is not the most optimal, but for now, it's all I got. Even at my worst half time of 2:08, using the double plus 10 minutes. This is why I put the 4:40 time in there.
WIP, I do not want the crash and burn for sure, and that's why I'm putting this out there. I need the opinions of the experienced. The statement I put in about the 9:45 pace is exactly where Damaris puts me. I think this is what I've been leaning towards all along.
i think 4:20-4:25 is reasonable based on your LRs too. I think 4:15 could be achievable on a good day but first marathons are tough.
I would skip the pace groups. 4:15-4:20
uʍop ǝpᴉsdn sǝʇᴉɹʍ ʇI
Hog, I have yet to do a marathon but knowing your history I would go for a 4:10-4:15. The last six miles are the big unknown.
delicate flower
I think you are in 4:20 to 4:30 shape. It doesn't look like you have the volume or endurance to go out aggressively (4:15) and hold it together for 26 miles. Looking at your log, I don't see a ton of miles faster than 9:45 pace. You do about one speed session/7 miles a week faster than 9:45 pace, and I don't know if that's enough for your legs to run faster than they are used to for 26 miles. You might be able to compensate if you had more of a base, but I think you'll be in for a rough final 8 miles if you try to chase that 4:15 finish.
I think 4:25 is right on your wheelhouse, and that'd be a pretty darn good marathon debut. The pace might feel easy for 16 miles and it should. You'll be surprised at how incredibly difficult that easy pace can be just a few miles later. It took me three tries to run a marathon right. In that third marathon, for 18 miles I felt like I was jogging, then for 5 miles I was running, then for 3 miles I was holding on for dear life.
<3
I would skip the pace groups.
+1
Nothing like a complete stranger ruining months of blood, sweat and tears during the first third of the race. Is there anyway to look the pacers up on the website?
+1 Nothing like a complete stranger ruining months of blood, sweat and tears during the first third of the race. Is there anyway to look the pacers up on the website?
Blood?
Rick, chances are that most of the pacers will come from the local track club, so there's a good chance that I will know them.
Phil, thanks for the reassurance, speed work of any kind has been slim due to the PF.
A couple strategically placed band-aids should help out with this.
LMAO, my wife just asked me last night if I shave my nipples!