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Took a leap of faith, but now I'm worried. Advice? (Read 449 times)

    I wasn’t going to talk about this publicly, because I fear getting a lot of criticism, but I’m actually in need of some advice.

     

    After DH and I decided that the Disney Marathon wasn’t going to happen because of the financial burden it would put on us, I went looking for some replacement races. I’m signed up for the Manhattan Half Marathon (1/27) a 5k in March, and, in a moment of what I can only explain as temporary insanity, I am signed up for the Central Park Marathon which is tentatively scheduled for February 24.

     

    The date is subject to change (but the NYCRuns people have said they will have a definitive date by mid-December). Assuming this is the date, I have 12 weeks left. I was already in the midst of a marathon training program, and despite taking six days off to take care of some personal things this week, I’ve done some excellent training in the past two months, including two weeks over 50 miles and another three weeks over 40 miles.

     

    OK, now I’m getting to the issue I need advice over. Assuming the date is real, the time limit for this race is 5:15. (I didn’t know this when I signed up, as there’s nothing on the website about it.)

     

    My PR is 5:50, off a very bad cycle of training where I peaked at 40 miles, but ran an average of 24 miles over the 18 weeks prior. (At the moment I’m averaging 36ish over the past 15 weeks). My long runs are in the range of 11:45-12:05 (done on flat surfaces mostly), and my pace runs, which are always done in Central Park, are between 10:25-11:00.

     

    My realistic goal for Disney was going to be 5:10-5:20. With a 5:15 cutoff, this is no longer an option.

     

    So, if you were me, what would you do?  

    onemile


      If I remember correctly, you've run HMs around 2:08-2:10.  I'm pretty sure you can run a 4:45 marathon.  Or faster.  Just do it.  Smile

        If I remember correctly, you've run HMs around 2:08-2:10.  I'm pretty sure you can run a 4:45 marathon.  Or faster.  Just do it.  Smile

         

        My PR is 2:10, but my current fitness is 2:15.

        onemile


          My PR is 2:10, but my current fitness is 2:15.

           

          Ok, well still.  Double plus 20 minutes is reasonable (4:50).  Double plus 30 is super conservative (5:00). You've been running decent mileage this time around. Believe in yourself and do it.

          CClay


          Better than all of you

            My advice is to run a bit faster than last time.

            xor


              >> My realistic goal for Disney was going to be 5:10-5:20. With a 5:15 cutoff, this is no longer an option.

               

              I don't understand. Wouldn't this mean that you are the back of the pack with a reasonable chance of hitting the cutoff or being so close to it that they won't mind whatsoever at all?

               


              Muddling through

                I'm assuming that will be the old 4 lap course or something similar. Do you know how NYRR is handling the cutoff time, i.e. not allowed to start the last lap after a certain time or close down the finish line after 5:15. Is the 5:15 from the gun or when the last runner crosses the starting mat? It looks like it could be touch and go for you time wise. With no interuptions in training I think it's worth a try.

                2014 Goals: Run first trail ultra, first 100K, and see what I can do in a 24-Hour race

                  >> My realistic goal for Disney was going to be 5:10-5:20. With a 5:15 cutoff, this is no longer an option.

                   

                  I don't understand. Wouldn't this mean that you are the back of the pack with a reasonable chance of hitting the cutoff or being so close to it that they won't mind whatsoever at all?

                   

                  I guess it depends on how strict they are going to be about the 5:15.

                    I'm assuming that will be the old 4 lap course or something similar. Do you know how NYRR is handling the cutoff time, i.e. not allowed to start the last lap after a certain time or close down the finish line after 5:15. Is the 5:15 from the gun or when the last runner crosses the starting mat? It looks like it could be touch and go for you time wise. With no interuptions in training I think it's worth a try.

                     

                    It's 5 laps of the lower loop (no Harlem Hills.) It's not an NYRR race, so I have no idea how it's being handled. I will send a message to the RD.


                    Muddling through

                      >> My realistic goal for Disney was going to be 5:10-5:20. With a 5:15 cutoff, this is no longer an option.

                       

                      I don't understand. Wouldn't this mean that you are the back of the pack with a reasonable chance of hitting the cutoff or being so close to it that they won't mind whatsoever at all?

                       Isn't Central Park a lot hillier than Disney? enough that it could be the difference?

                       

                      Disregard since the Harlem Hills aren't on the course.

                      2014 Goals: Run first trail ultra, first 100K, and see what I can do in a 24-Hour race

                      xor


                        It isn't disney.  My guess is that for a 5:20 person, they are going to let you finish.  They may or may not give you an official time.  I can't imagine they will sweep you.

                         

                        You should send them email and ask.

                         

                           Isn't Central Park a lot hillier than Disney? enough that it could be the difference?

                           

                          Yup, but it is the park I train in.

                          xor


                             Isn't Central Park a lot hillier than Disney? enough that it could be the difference?

                             

                            Yes it is.  Rolling hills, not mountains.  Depending on where amy trains though, it actually might be more like her training runs.  For me, I'd be more likely to PR central park than disney.

                             

                            Anyway.

                             

                              Go for it!


                              Bad Ass

                                You'll be fine, plus the time limit is from the last one that crossed the mat.  You can run it and finish in time.  Sub 5 is a possibility.

                                Damaris, Marathon Maniac, Ultra Runner

                                Next:  RnR Country Music Half Marathon

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