I am not overthinking anything. The problem with my heel began after I felt a pop in my calf (1). It was during my first run in 8 days (2), with tight hanstrings (3), in new running shoes (4), then I showered and put on new work shoes (5), so there is a lot going on there. I didn't run in the snow until 3 days later, it was already giving me a problem but the snow made it completely intolerable (6). So that is yet another variable that has to be looked at. I am not completely clueless here. It would be different if one thing happened, but SEVERAL things happend. As I've said multiple times, it is a process and I'm working my way through it. Rest was first, resuming running was second, I'm wearing different shoes at work today, and will go from here.

My thought process is similar in these situations. Not gonna be an easy one with all the variables, though. As you said earlier, now is time to rule stuff out, and see what sticks out in the end.