I got a nice PR in my last HM in February (2:16:27, 10:25 pace). I have another coming up in a week (Ventura) and have no idea how I want to pace it. I hope for a decent PR.
Things going for me:
1. I could have run the February race faster. I sped up the last couple of miles and should have done that way sooner; I finished with a lot of gas in the tank.
2. The Feb course is fairly flat but with two moderate-incline but LONG hills. Ventura advertises as super-flat, no hills.
3. I've had PRs in the 5k and 10k since February; based on those, McMillan predicts 2:06:01 and 2:08:51
Things going against me:
1. June and July were bad (lower mileage) training months because of illness and injury.
So, how fast do I go out? 2:16:26? 2:14:59? 2:09:59? (those are my C,B, and A goals) My concerns are that if I go out at B pace and feel good, I can never make up enough time later in the race to achieve the A goal. But if I go out for the A goal, what if I blow up? (I've done a few tempo runs including up to 4.5 miles at 10 to 10:06 pace, so, close to the A goal. But I don't know about 9 more miles at that pace.)
I don't think anyone can answer this really. I would say to go for the 2:09:59 based on what your 10k predicts but your 10k is from March. 4.5 miles at HMP doesn't really suggest you can hold that for a half (it doesn't suggest you can't, but it's not really enough). Do you feel as fit as you were when you ran that 10k?
I don't think anyone can answer this really....
I know, but I figured that never stopped anyone here from weighing in before.
...I would say to go for the 2:09:59 based on what your 10k predicts but your 10k is from March. 4.5 miles at HMP doesn't really suggest you can hold that for a half (it doesn't suggest you can't, but it's not really enough). Do you feel as fit as you were when you ran that 10k?
Ugh, I don't know. I had a few months of good training leading up to that. Since then, I had a couple months of good training, then a couple of light months, then another decent month. So, probably similar condition.
Do you feel like running hard at the end if you have anything left? Maybe using the memory of those longer tempo runs to really crank it?
I'm thinking about the HM I ran with a friend last April. It was supposed to be a MP run for her, so we planned to run it at MP (about 9:35 for her) and not race it. We ended up running MP for the first 5, then we started inching faster for the next 5, then suddenly we were 10 miles in and might was well just go for it from there. She ended up with a PR, and only about a minute away from sub-2. If we had been trying for sub-2 (9:09 pace), there is no way we would have paced ourselves as we did. We would have started much faster. I'm hoping I can remember that in future races and hold myself to a much slower pace in the early miles.
For you, what about
1st 5K: "C" pace
2nd 5K: "B" pace
3rd 5K: "A" pace
last 5K: Bring it home strong!
What would make you happy? You left that part out, except to say you hope for a decent PR.
Agreed. I wouldn't go with the McMillan prediction mostly because your mileage is also low. I would try for a slight PR, somewhere between 2:09 and 2:14.
Damaris
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Do you feel like running hard at the end if you have anything left? Maybe using the memory of those longer tempo runs to really crank it? I'm thinking about the HM I ran with a friend last April. It was supposed to be a MP run for her, so we planned to run it at MP (about 9:35 for her) and not race it. We ended up running MP for the first 5, then we started inching faster for the next 5, then suddenly we were 10 miles in and might was well just go for it from there. She ended up with a PR, and only about a minute away from sub-2. If we had been trying for sub-2 (9:09 pace), there is no way we would have paced ourselves as we did. We would have started much faster. I'm hoping I can remember that in future races and hold myself to a much slower pace in the early miles. For you, what about 1st 5K: "C" pace 2nd 5K: "B" pace 3rd 5K: "A" pace last 5K: Bring it home strong!
I remember that race! It was a nice surprise.
I was thinking about starting slower (B pace) and then deciding at about mile 8 if I wanted to speed it up...but, I'm just not sure that I could ever pull off a pace fast enough at "A" pace or faster to bring it in at "A".
I'd be satisfied with C, pretty happy with B, and ECSTATIC with A.
How would you feel if you went for A and crashed and burned?
Good advice thus far and many options. I can only say what I would do, based on what I've done. Now whether that is right for you or not is for you to decide, but I would pace for the A Goal. The chief reason for that is I am not a person who speeds up over a race distance longer than the 10k. In fact at the half marathon and marathon distance, I am the complete opposite.
To give an example; I ran two half marathons in 2014 and paced for an "A" goal both times....and both times I fell short.
In the one I ran in the spring the wheels came off at mile 10. In the one I ran last fall, the wheels came off at mile 7, OOF!
In both cases I ended up with an alternate goal and was pretty satisfied, I think. I left nothing on the course and didn't have to wonder if I paced too conservatively.
Yeah sure, the finish of both completely sucked. I cannot say which was worse because they both hurt. But hey if you're scared, call the police.
If you are the type of runner who can dial it up the longer the race goes, then that is a great option for you. I tend to do better finding a rhythm and trying to stick with it for as long as possible.
I remember that race! It was a nice surprise. I was thinking about starting slower (B pace) and then deciding at about mile 8 if I wanted to speed it up...but, I'm just not sure that I could ever pull off a pace fast enough at "A" pace or faster to bring it in at "A".
But if you started off at C pace, just for 3.1, would you have 3.1 at "A" pace later on? I am still of the opinion that HMs are made in that 3rd 5K.
Oh, I should add that my "A" goal was simply the equivalent from the Daniels race predictor chart, using my 10k time.
While those charts are cool to get a basic idea, there's nothing that says you can't go faster than that.
Are we there, yet?
My standard answer, ignore pace and run by perceived effort. Except in the track races like the 800m and mile, any time I've tried to run a particular pace it has been a disappointment, either because the pace was too fast for my fitness and race conditions and I blew up or I was more fit than I thought and left a lot on the course.
2024 Races:
03/09 - Livingston Oval Ultra 6-Hour, 22.88 miles
05/11 - D3 50K 05/25 - What the Duck 12-Hour
06/17 - 6 Days in the Dome 12-Hour.
What were the courses like for the 5k and 10k? FWIW, the last half I ran was the closest I ever same to McMillan and I was still off by about 4 minutes.
How big is the race? I find that has a huge bearing on pace if you are mid-pack. 2000 people is ok, 10,000 is not. For me, the issue is that in the 2+ hour folks, you have a huge range of attitudes, from those out for a leisurely run with 6 of their closest friends who mu run shoulder to shoulder to those looking to PR and working hard at the same pace.
I have never been able to really speed up in a half aside from one that I went into with no expectations and never looked at my watch until 8 miles in. Otherwise, I am always holding on for dear life.
2:12? Essentially a 10 mm pace? I would run the first mile-ish at a slightly easier pace, mainly to let people sort themselves out. FWIW, here's what I did in my last half, it would up being a 4 minute PR (just under 2:06). It was also a totally flat course, aside from the ramp on and off the boardwalk. Mile 1 easy, let things ease up. I settled in around 9:30 miles 2-4. I picked it up miles 5-9 (low 9s) then slowed miles 9-end (9:45-9:50-ish) due to a cramp in my upper stomach.
KillJoyFuckStick
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