On page 53 of Training for Endurance, 2nd Revised Edition by Phil Maffetone ©2000. Maffetone gives the below chart based on his" hundreds of tests and several racing seasons." Based on the first mile pace:
MAF PACE...5k pace....5k time
10:00............7:30..........23:18
9:30..............7:15..........22:31
9:00..............7:00..........21:45
8:30..............6:45..........20:58
8:00..............6:30..........20:12
7:30..............6:00..........18:38
7:00..............5:30..........17:05
6:30..............5:15..........16:19
6:00..............5:00..........15:32
5:45..............4:45..........14:45
5:30..............4:30..........13:59
5:15..............4:20..........13:28
5:00..............4:15..........13:12
There is an odd jump in 5k pace from 7:00 to 7:30, with a 30 second jump as opposed to the 15 second jump seen in the rest of the chart from 5:30 MAF pace and slower. This could be because Dr. Phil had a small sampling in that area, or maybe it's correct. I decided to make a new chart starting at 10:00 MAF pace, and extrapolating in 15 second intervals with about a 7-8 second difference in 5k time between them. I then popped the 5k times into into the Team Oregon Pace Wizard, which I find to be a bit more realistic and accurate than the McMillan one for average runners (you could actually use both calculators to create a range to shoot for), and added the equivalent 5k, 13.1, and marathon times.
PREDICTION CHART USING THE TEAM OREGON PACE WIZARD (posted 8-1-15)
Half
Marathon
Pace
Time
PREDICTION CHART USING THE MCMILLAN CALCULATOR (posted 8-2-13)
Mitochondria created this table using the McMillan Calculator. Thanks, Mitochondria! :
THOUGHTS
The more aerobically fit you are, and the greater your endurance, then your times will come in line (e.g. a 7:00 5k will mean an 8:17 marathon pace is in the cards). A few thoughts:
—having the correct MAF helps. But even if you're off a bit, but are consistent in the one you use, then you can build your own chart over time. You'll know that (e.g) if your MAF speed is 9:00, and you've been improving through training to get to that number, then you most likely under good conditions could run a 3:30 marathon. Your own correlations count more than any chart or calculator. Self-knowledge is power. The treadmill test or getting an RQ test keep help verify an MAF.
—these charts are just approximate, and should be used along with other indicators. Using both charts could give you a range to shoot for. For example, if your MAF test first mile id 10:00, your range for a marathon would be 3:47-3:53. It's very important to keep data on your training and racing. You can mine it for other indicators of performance. For example, you might find that if your pace at 90% MHR in a lactate threshold tempo run is 6:55 in the first mile and your MAF pace is 8:00, then 3:22:00 is possible. Some people use a 5k or 10k race pace as an indicator. The more indicators you have, the better your race pace prediction.
—Of course, if you run races with a heart rate monitor, then you don't have to worry much about predicting pace. But if you want to truly maximize your potential in a race, then the optimal HR race plan has to be worked out and tweaked. You can study your race paces per mile vs. HR to see if you're always slowing too much down the stretch, or having too much left in the bank. Team Oregon Pace Wizard has some fairly accurate average HR's for races. You can use them as a guide. If it gives a HR of 170 bpm for a marathon, then you can build a plan around that number that (e.g) could have you running the first half of the race from 160-170, then the latter half letting the HR rise to 170-180.
—Adjustments have to be made for weather. If all your indicators point to a 3:30 marathon, and you've been training in 50-60º temperatures, and come race day it's 72º, then you have to adjust. Often your body will tell you. You'll feel the extra stress. Running with a HRM and sticking to the plan will slow you automatically.
—***Important*** Monitoring aerobic speed and which way it's moving is key. You might have a 10:00 MAF pace two weeks before a marathon, but if you started training with a 9:30 pace and have slowed throughout training, then your indicators might be a bit off when it comes race time. A slowing aerobic speed usually indicates a problem. The most probable cause is overtraining. When you go into a race overtrained, you can run into problems early and a pace you thought you could do based on 10:00 MAF pace might not be possible, and if you keep pushing that pace, DNF or a long death march is highly probable.
Please discuss and share your data and correlations.
Master of Inconsistency
Ain't Wastin' Time No More !
I finished in ~3:12:20, but would have ran 3:10 aside from an unexpected stop, where the chart for an 8:00 MAF test (which is probably about where I am on a TM, perhaps a bit slower) predicts 3:16.
Hawt and sexy
I'm touching your pants.
I beat that chart by about 15 minutes when training at 11 mm last spring. Hmmm. It's the girl cooties, isn't it? I have been racing marathons at 2:30 faster than my MAF. I am guessing the difference will decrease as I improve but at the slow speeds it seems to stay the same. My sample size it 2 trues races. Steamtown did not pan out last year, too hot. And my last marathon I paced a friend and had a blast so that does not count. Looking at my HRM at mile 23 and seeing that I was still at MAF was kinda fun though. Boy, she cussed me out a little when I mentioned that... MTA-My 5k times are very close to thr chart though.
This may not be accurate, be careful, it may not be wise to use it to determine your pace for a marathon: MAF....5k pace....5k time.....Marathon.....Mpace 13:00...9:00.........27:57..........4:32:29.......10:25 12:30...8:45.........27:11..........4:25:00.......10:07 12:00...8:30.........26:23..........4:17:12.........9:50 11:30...8:15.........25:37..........4:09:44.........9:32 11:00...8:00.........24:51..........4:02:15.........9:15 10:30..7:45..........24:04..........3:54:37.........8:58 10:00..7:30..........23:18..........3:47:09...........8:41 9:30....7:15..........22:31..........3:39:31...........8:23 9:00....7:00..........21:45..........3:32:02...........8:06 8:30....6:45..........20:58..........3:24:24...........7:49 8:00....6:30..........20:12..........3:16:55...........7:31 7:30....6:00..........18:38..........3:01:39...........6:56 7:00....5:30..........17:05..........2:46:32...........6:22 6:30....5:15..........16:19..........2:39:04...........6:05 6:00....5:00..........15:32..........2:31:26...........5:47 5:45....4:45..........14:45..........2:23:48...........5:30 5:30....4:30..........13:59..........2:16:19...........5:12 5:15....4:20..........13:28..........2:11:17...........5:01 5:00....4:15..........13:12....... ..2:08:41...........4:55 --Jimmy
Ok Jimmy, so if this is correct, and I did read the disclaimer, I could potentially run a 4:09:44, since I'm running between an 11:00 and 11:30 pace at MAF. Where do I sign on the dotted line to get that for a debut marathon? Now, that's today. Since I have 10+ weeks to go, it may be better. My luck, it will be 70 F and 90% humidity on Pig day. Oh well, nothing I can do about that. Just "run my race." Anyway, I'd take that time if I can get it.
That's the good thing about the first one- it's going to be a PR no matter what. I think you will hold a better pace than you think. Are you keeping your long runs at MAF for now, or are you starting Pfitzinger's 10-20% slower than goal pace long runs as we are ~10 weeks out. Maybe I will do a MAF test tonight as part of my 11 "general aerobic" miles on the treadmill.
Max McMaffelow Esq.
11:00...8:00.........24:51..........4:02:15.........9:15 10:30..7:45..........24:04..........3:54:37.........8:58 --Jimmy