Low HR Training

1

MAF pace prediction for 5k is way off (Read 50 times)

Keith_S


    Hi,

    I am trying to correlate

     

    I'm 43, and am using a target HR of 141. I did a MAF test yesterday and my times were:

    6:09  6:27  6:34  6:38  6:43

     

    Using Maffetone's prediction chart, it says based on that first mile, I should be able to run a 5k in the low 5-minute pace:

    http://www.running-world.net/want_speed_slow_down_3.php

     

    However, the fastest 5k I ever did was 18:15 (pace of 5:53 min/mile) and this was just 2 weeks ago.

     

    Why would the prediction be so far off?

     

    About a year ago I did a MAF test and it was the same story. My MAF time for the first mile was 6:40 and this predicted a race pace of 5:30 but my best pace at that time was 6:02 min/mile.

     

    Any comments would be welcome... Thanks!

      Possibilities:

       

      1) The HR you are using for MAF is too high, at least for MAF tests.  As such you get a prediction faster than you can actually do.

      2) You don't run enough volume to get your times to line up.  How much do you run?

      3) Lack of anaerobic sharpness is possible, since 5Ks do have an (albeit small) anaerobic component (like 10-13%, I think, depending on your speed).

       

      If you make your log public, it's a lot easier for people to provide feedback.  Smile  Welcome to the forum.

      "When a person trains once, nothing happens. When a person forces himself to do a thing a hundred or a thousand times, then he certainly has developed in more ways than physical. Is it raining? That doesn't matter. Am I tired? That doesn't matter, either. Then willpower will be no problem." 
      Emil Zatopek

      artellan


        Hi Keith,

        Just wondering, why is your target 141 if you're 43, did you get the +5 bonus for longtime training/racing with no injuries?

         

        I'm using a MAF of 143 and my MAF test gives around 7:30 first mile. My 5K PR though (last fall) is 18:09.

         

        Do you have any other longer race distance results to compare to? They might tell more of the story. If they're more in line with your 6:09 MAF pace, I guess it could mean you have fantastic aerobic fitness but lack speed / anaerobic conditioning.

         

        Anyway, that's an awesome MAF pace, I'm hoping to get mine into the 6's some day! Smile

         

        Cheers

        Mike

          Hi,

          I am trying to correlate

           

          I'm 43, and am using a target HR of 141. I did a MAF test yesterday and my times were:

          6:09  6:27  6:34  6:38  6:43

           

          Using Maffetone's prediction chart, it says based on that first mile, I should be able to run a 5k in the low 5-minute pace:

          http://www.running-world.net/want_speed_slow_down_3.php

           

          However, the fastest 5k I ever did was 18:15 (pace of 5:53 min/mile) and this was just 2 weeks ago.

           

          Why would the prediction be so far off?

           

          About a year ago I did a MAF test and it was the same story. My MAF time for the first mile was 6:40 and this predicted a race pace of 5:30 but my best pace at that time was 6:02 min/mile.

           

          Any comments would be welcome... Thanks!

          To add to RGilbert's and Mike's lists: Perhaps you aren't running your 5k's hard enough. When run properly, they are very uncomfortable. Do you have any HR information from your 5k's? If not, try running your next one with your HRM--don't let your HR dictate your speed, just run the 5k like you normally would and gather the HR info.

           

          With a 6:09 first mile aerobic speed, and only managing 20 seconds faster in a 5k, there's something WAY off. I popped your 18:15 5k into the Team Oregon Pace Wizard (click) and it shows that your MAF pace is between your 5 mile and 10k pace:

           

          DISTANCE TIME PACE
          2 mi 0:11:20 5:40
          5 km 0:18:15 5:52
          5 mi 0:30:30 6:06
          10 km 0:38:34 6:12
          15 km 0:59:45 6:24
          10 mi 1:04:27 6:26
          20 km 1:21:31 6:33
          HalfMthn 1:26:21 6:35
          25 km 1:43:43 6:40
          30 km 2:06:17 6:46
          Marathon 3:02:30 6:57

           

          How can this be?

           

          My fastest MAF speed was never faster than PR marathon pace (about 6-10% slower than MRP). How could it be faster? Marathon ave HR is about 173 bpm for me (recorded in a race), while MAF at the time was 140 bpm. My 10k HR is about 186 bpm (recorded). Here's a chart based on my 5k PR with HR's (the Pace WIzard has been very accurate for me with HR's). AT the time, my MAF first mile was 9:00, recorded in 68°F (the 5k PR was run in 48°F):

           

          DISTANCE TIME PACE HR
          2 mi 0:12:56 6:28 200
          5 km 0:20:49 6:41 194
          5 mi 0:34:47 6:57 189
          10 km 0:43:59 7:04 187
          15 km 1:08:09 7:18 182
          10 mi 1:13:31 7:21 181
          20 km 1:32:58 7:28 179
          HalfMthn 1:38:30 7:30 179
          25 km 1:58:18 7:36 177
          30 km 2:24:02 7:43 175
          Marathon 3:28:10 7:56 172

           

          MAF was 140 bpm. These HR's are pretty much on the money for my races. Perhaps, you could give us more information:

           

          --What's your MHR?

          --do you have any HR info from a 5k? 10k? Marathon? (any distance will do)

          --do you have any other recent race times?

          --how did you calculate your MAF?

          --is there a big temperature difference between your MAF tests and races?

           

          Thanks.

          --Jimmy

          log   prs      Crusted Salt comic #141

           

            "how can it be?" answer is simple, just another case of formula failing. OP clearly needs to run at a lower HR than what the formula gives, he probably has a low HRmax and low LTHR


            Race Less Train More

              "how can it be?" answer is simple, just another case of formula failing. OP clearly needs to run at a lower HR than what the formula gives, he probably has a low HRmax and low LTHR

               

              I do not think it is that simple. What is the  OP's weekly mileage? What is his speedwork ( 400, 800 or mile repeats)?How much rest is he taking between  the repeats?

              Run until the trail runs out.

              2013***1500 miles

              50 miler

               

               

              unsolicited chatter

              http://bkclay.blogspot.com/

                 

                I do not think it is that simple. What is the  OP's weekly mileage? What is his speedwork ( 400, 800 or mile repeats)?How much rest is he taking between  the repeats?

                 

                well either that or OP is a very strange outlier. even without speedwork the difference between MAF speed and 5K speed should be more. so to me it seems the most likely answer is that the generic age based 180 formula is not working in this case even with the slight adjustment option. just like 220-age doesn't work for many people to guess maxHR. meaning OP needs to work out his HR zones in another way

                  Keith has never come back to address any questions about his HR's in races, his MHR, etc.. Until he does, it's speculation on what's really going on. Don't expect this thread will ever resolve itself though. Has that feel to it.

                  log   prs      Crusted Salt comic #141