Another RWOL refugee here Looking for some pace advice. I think I've got a good idea already but would like to hear your opinion on whether you think I can be a little more aggressive or not based on my recent HM race and long run. Thanks for your thoughts!
1) What are your recent shorter-distance race times?
March - 10k 40:07
April - Half Marathon 1:31:29
May - 10 Mi. 1:06:18
September 16th - Half Marathon 1:29:51
I've done no HM specific training this summer. Only a few long HM paced tempo runs leading up to the September race. The weather was not ideal. September is still summer time in Texas! 75F & 83% humidity at the 7AM start - low 80's & humid the last several miles. I think with better conditions I could have managed a 1:28 low.
2) What's your average mileage per week?
Jan-Sep 1,836 miles 47 per week
Jul-Sep 708 miles 54 per week
Last 10 weeks - 59 per week
2.1) What training program (if any) are you using?
My own plan. 6 days per week. Last 10 weeks have been 2 weeks @ ~63 mi. then a cut back week @ ~55 mi. Structured as follows:
Sun-21.50 M-7.25 T-10 W-7.25 Th-10 F-7.25 Sat-Off = 63.25 mi.
Sun-16.25 M-7.25 T-7.25 W-7.25 Th-10 F-7.25 Sat-Off = 55.25 mi. (cut back week)
3) When is your race, and which one is it?
October 21st. The name of the race is Marathon 2 Marathon. Marathon is a small town in Southwest Texas just North of Big Bend National Park.
4) How long have you been running?
About 6 years in my second running life.
4.1) How many marathons have you run, and what were your times?
Six previous marathons.
Oct 2013 - 3:32:47
Mar 2014 - 3:28:09
Oct 2014 - 3:23:55
Dec 2014 - 3:51:40
Oct 2015 - 3:19:27 (Jan - Sep 2015 1,714 miles - 44 per week)
Oct 2016 - 3:20:33 (Jan - Sep 2016 1,696 miles - 43 per week)
Oct 2017 - ? (Jan - Sep 2017 1,836 miles - 47 per week)
5) What is your age and gender?
45/male.
6) What pace do you run your long runs?
8:30-9:00
Normally the first few miles are 9:0X and then I gradually progress down to the 8:30 - 8:40's. I do not intentionally speed up but it just seems to happen naturally as I loosen up and get in a good groove. I've run a lot of miles in the 8:30 - 8:40 range this summer.
Since June 1, I've done 6 @ 21.5 mi. and 6 @ 16.25 mi. The 21.5 mi. were all since the last Sunday in July.
7) What is your goal?
Assuming good weather, I have been thinking about 7:30 pace (3:16:XX). However, I ran my last 21.5 mi. long run on Sunday as 15 easy, 6 @ GMP, .5 easy. I tried not to look at the watch during the GMP segment and really dial in to marathon effort. The GMP miles were 7:25, 7:17, 7:11, 7:16, 7:14, 7:15. This along with the HM race a few weeks back has got me thinking maybe a little faster! I do not want to be greedy but what say you? What do you think is possible with good weather and smart pacing?
Pace Prophet
My magic spreadsheet suggests that you could aim at something around 3:12-3:15. I'd caution you to not get too greedy, as your March/April combo of races suggests an endurance deficit (not a huge one) and your higher mileage since July, while excellent, is not enough of a long-term thing to give you a big boost.
I'd be curious what your shorter race times were last year ahead of your marathon. But still, I don't think that aiming any faster than 3:12 (or around 7:20 pace) would be smart.
I wouldn't advise anything faster than 3:15... I believe that the risk goes up exponentially for each minute faster that you try to run. As is always the case, you won't know if it's 'too fast' until it's 'too late'.
But if you don't care about the risk... then go for it.
be curious; not judgmental
My magic spreadsheet suggests that you could aim at something around 3:12-3:15. I'd caution you to not get too greedy, as your March/April combo of races suggests an endurance deficit (not a huge one) and your higher mileage since July, while excellent, is not enough of a long-term thing to give you a big boost. I'd be curious what your shorter race times were last year ahead of your marathon. But still, I don't think that aiming any faster than 3:12 (or around 7:20 pace) would be smart.
Thank you ilanarama! I did not have any good short race times (predictors) last year. It was a hot summer and I did not run the September race that I ran this year. I did run a 1:29:34 HM in April of 2016 but I do not believe that is close enough to the October 2016 marathon to be a predictor. In 2015 when I ran my current marathon PR of 3:19:27 (Oct 2015), I ran a 1:27:13 20k in September (they changed the race from a 10k/20k to a Quarter marathon/HM this year). I'm not going to get greedy! I'm pretty good about settling on a pace and sticking to it.
I agree that I have an endurance deficit (speed surplus) but in my defense the April HM you referenced above was in warm, humid, rainy conditions. In fact the race was delayed by about an hour to let thunderstorms pass. Once the thunderstorms passed, we had no time to warm up before they started the race. It was warm and humid with wet, slick roads. While the May 10 Miler was in much better conditions (68F, low humidity).
I wouldn't advise anything faster than 3:15... I believe that the risk goes up exponentially for each minute faster that you try to run. As is always the case, you won't know if it's 'too fast' until it's 'too late'. But if you don't care about the risk... then go for it.
I agree with everything you've stated (EXPONENTIAL risk for each min. faster - won't know it's too fast until it's too late). I do care about the risk. I've had a good build-up and I want to have a good race.
Based on your response and ilanarama's, I think I'll stick to my original plan if the weather is good. 7:30 pace (7:25-7:35) for the first 23 mi. and then empty the tank over the last 5k. There is a long hill (3/4 mi.) in this race between 22 and 23 but after that it is flat and down hill to the finish.
In 2015 when I ran my current marathon PR of 3:19:27 (Oct 2015), I ran a 1:27:13 20k in September (they changed the race from a 10k/20k to a Quarter marathon/HM this year). I'm not going to get greedy! I'm pretty good about settling on a pace and sticking to it.
Given this information, assuming your endurance to speed relationship is slightly better this year (due to more training cycles and slightly higher mileage) I'm going to say about 3:14. Your plan sounds excellent, and I wish you luck!
Your races times are slightly faster than mine and if I was you I’d go out and no faster than 3.15 and that if it’s a PR friendly course and the weather is ideal. I’d hold that pace till mile 20 at least and take it up a notch if there’s anything left in the tank.
Marathon 3:18 4/7/13. HM 1:30:16 2/4/17 10K 40:31 5/14/17.
So I had a fantastic race this past Saturday in less than ideal weather conditions. The temperature was 59F at the start and was comfortable throughout the first half of the race. I could definitely feel it warming up during the second half of the race though. It was 70F at the finish. Nevertheless I finished in 3:14:23! (BQ - 10:37 & a 5 min. PR) I guess training through the Texas summer paid off for me!
This is my 5th year in a row to run this small town marathon. In the past I have run large portions of this race by myself due to the small field (91 people finished the marathon this year). This year I was very lucky to be able to run the first 23 miles with another guy. He ran the race as a long training run as he will be going for sub-3 at another marathon in 7 weeks. He ran off and left me in the last 3 miles despite my strong finish.
The first few miles is uphill and I started off easy (Mile 1: 7:50 - Mile 2: 7:36). After that, I reeled off 21 consecutive miles from 7:21 to 7:33 (7:25 avg.) As I noted in one of my earlier posts above, mile 23 is a decent uphill and is very tough that late in the race. It was the 7:33 mile. After I crested the hill, I finished strong (Mile 24: 7:14 - Mile 25: 7:10 - Mile 26: 7:05 and the last .2 at 6:35 pace). I finished 4th overall and am very happy with the result especially considering the weather.
Thank you all for your input and advice. I think everyone that provided feedback was really close, of course, ilanarama nailed it with her final prediction though
Fantastic! Great result in tough conditions and it didn’t sound an easy course. You paced it well too. Rest up and take it easy. See I feel you can find a flat course with temps around 50F in the spring and even if you just repeat your training there’s a chance you could take some time of your PR.
Big congratulations to you - that's an excellent result! And 4th OA, wow!