I think you’re boderline 3:15. I’d be tempted to go out at 3:18-3.16 pace and hold it for the first 15 miles or so and that is if the course is flat and the weather cool.
I ran 3.18 last Nov with similar training, I couldn’t find a tune up race and finished in 3:18 but a 2 min negative split and the last 2.2km were the fastest of the race, 7.24 min/mile.
Marathon 3:18 4/7/13. HM 1:30:16 2/4/17 10K 40:31 5/14/17.
Pace Prophet
I'd go for 3:20, and if you feel good toward the end, you might be able to cut it down toward 3:18. I think 3:15 is still on the aggressive side. The Jack Daniels calculator assumes perfect endurance for your speed, which you are not going to have.
Thank you guys. will work on my marathon pacing strategy
Mother of Cats
How important is the BQ to you, versus a 3:15?
If you care about the BQ more, then I'd go out at 3:25, with hopes of picking it up as I went along to come in several minutes under 3:25 for the BQ cushion. If you shoot for 3:15 and it's not there, you risk missing your BQ.
How were your last two marathons paced? - Evenly? Negative splits? Or a crash after 20?
Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.
And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.
Also, just as a general unsolicited comment on your training...
Proper marathon training is NOT about piling as much on yourself as you can without breaking; it's about striking the proper balance of stress and recovery. You poke your body with a stress (workout, mileage, whatever), and then let your body absorb. And repeat.
Based on your summary of your training, especially all those half-marathons, I suspect you've been trying to pile on as much as you can tolerate. Perhaps consider restructuring your training for future cycles? Pfitzinger's Advanced Marathoning would be a good place to start.
I have done only 2 marathons before last one in march 2015. I typically follow the pace group.
In the first marathon, I followed the 4hr pacer till mile 23 and slowed a bit and ended up finishing 4:02. Did not hit the wall, slowed down a bit after the big hill at mile 23.
In my second marathon, I followed the 3:40 pacer. I ran a bit fast and cramped up on mile 20, ended up finishing 4:09.
Both of these marathons with only 30-40 miles per week max and 2 20 mile runs and did not follow any training plan.
I had already signed up for these half marathons before I signed up for the race, hence had to adjust them with my current marathon training.
For the Richmond
BQ is my top priority. I need at least BQ-5 to get in. I was thinking of running at 7:40-7:35 pace and speeding up in the end.
I am comfortable running behind a pacer so that I don't have to monitor my speed. Running alone is a bit tricky. Unfortunately Richmond has only 3:15 and 3:25 pacers, nothing in between.
How important is the BQ to you, versus a 3:15? If you care about the BQ more, then I'd go out at 3:25, with hopes of picking it up as I went along to come in several minutes under 3:25 for the BQ cushion. If you shoot for 3:15 and it's not there, you risk missing your BQ. How were your last two marathons paced? - Evenly? Negative splits? Or a crash after 20?
You’ll find a fair number of runners at around 3.20 pace so I wouldn’t be worried about running alone much. My last marathon had a 3.30 and a 3.15 group. I finished in 3.18, never saw the 3.15 group - even at that start! Overtook the 3.30 group around mile 10, was around 3.20 for much of the race and there were a good number of us.
I’m not a great pacer, but with my Garmin and key splits written on my forearm, 5K-30K I do ok, especially on a flat course and in cool weather.
Awesome. I will stick around 7:35-7:40 pace and see how it goes till 20-22 and take off after that.
I am going to check if the virtual pacer in my garmin can pace me. will try that out during my run tomorrow
Many thanks to all the feedback and kept me closer to reality
My goal was sub-320. if I feel better 3:18. Was feeling great till mile 23 and was running a 7:33 consistent pace. thanks to runningjones from the forum, who was kid enough to run with me (He finished 3:18). I was running at an average pace of 7:35 per mile till mile 24.
I hit the wall at mile 24 and was running a min slower per mile. Ended up finishing 3:21:59. Still a BQ by 3 min. Praying that this will get me in. Need to shoot for another marathon to get under 3:20 to give safe cushion. Glad I did not run with the 7:27 pace group.
Many thanks to e78 was coming out and cheering me at mile 14 and 23. It was so nice of her
Congratulations on your new PR and the BQ! It's possible that had you paced for 3:20 and not 3:18, you might not have hit the wall - but you might have anyway, who knows?
I was reading about this
Hitting the wall sounds like a violent, painful activity. It's not literally "hitting the wall", but feeling like you've hit something when you run out of carbohydrate energy. Runners become weak, dizzy, experience headaches, blurred vision, and more. It frequently happens when running a full marathon, generally after 18 or so miles. The most common period is between 20-23 miles.
This is exactly how i felt miles 24-26. I had blurry vision, lack of energy and cud not run fast