Masters Running

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Monty Hall Sunday Daily - What Door Will You Run To? (Read 46 times)

    Yesterday Spareribs posted a note that included a bit about a mathematical puzzle known as the Monty Hall problem (yes it is really called that).  You can look at the daily for the explanation.  Basically, there are three doors one with a big prize two without.  Monty Hall of course knows which door has the big prize behind it.  You pick one.  Monty Hall then reveals one of the two remaining doors showing it did not have the big prize.  You can now keep your original pick or switch to the remaining unopened door.  Should you switch?  The answer is yes.  Here is what I think is an intuitive explanation.  Imagine that instead of 3 doors there are 3,000,000,000,000 doors.  Wow a lot of doors!  There is a big prize behind exactly one.  You start by picking one.  Monty Hall now reveals all but one other door.  Should you switch?  Of course, the odds you picked the winning door in the first place was 1 in 3,000,000,000,000!  Monty Hall knows which door has the prize.  So, he has now shown you that 2,999,999,999,998 others that do not.  What are the odds the remaining door that you did not originally pick has the prize?  Well, it must be 2,999,999,999,999 in 3,000,000,000,000!  Switch and you have almost certainly won!  So as they say Let's Make a Deal!

     

    Since this is the running daily, I ham running a 20k race starting in a bit over an hour!  I do not have a goal.  At this point I just want to see where I am in terms of speed.  Nice day for the race.  Sunny and just under 40.

    Live like you are dying not like you are afraid to die.

    Drunken Irish Soda Bread and Irish Brown Bread this way -->  http://allrecipes.com/cook/4379041/

      ..oh no,

      MATH PROBLEMS to start the daily.......

       

      ======

       

      ...mikeE//.......if ever you stop in Ky for dinner again,

      get some Barbeque and Burgoo>>>>>a Western Kentucky Favorite

       

       

      occassionally

      you will find a dog collar at the bottom of the bowl,

      but

      we treat that like a Prize in a box of CrackerJacks

       

      ,,,ps,,,,,,,

      here is our ChoirDirector's Website

      the guy is a MusicalGenius

      http://www.wolfforkmusic.com/

      he'd have to be to make us sound as good as we do...............enjoy

      ..nothing takes the place of persistence.....


      MM#209 / JapanJoyful#803

        Thanks toucat.  Hope you run like you hope in your 20K.
        Are you sure it's not 21.0925K?

        .
        Thanks for door explanation.
        So here’s my today’s three doors:
        . . a.  Tokyo Marathon 42.195K ,
        . . b.  Chilly Hilly 33-mile cycle around Bainbridge Island and
        . . c.  zilch.
        Unfortunately, I chose the zilcher. 
        Better luck next year, I guess.
        Maybe I should add a few billion more options. Smile
        .
        Chilly Hilly - in spite of threatening forecasts even of snow for today, the morning’s high clouds are perfect for divechief and dove’s Chilly Hilly.  One of Bicycle Magazine’s four classic rides in the country, I used to love stretching out on what started out as home-made aerobars as in downhill ski racing on the nearly half-mile long descents to pass many of the younger riders who’d passed me on the way up.

        .

        ps - congratulations for 80K on the trails by wildchild and ziggie.  
        .

        "Enjoy yourself. Your younger days never come again." 100yo T. Igarashi to me in geta at top of Mt. Fuji (8/2/87)

        janie b good


          i know monty python ... does that count?

           

          8 miles ... tired.

           

          happy sunday!

          goodness is its own reward; for more tangible outcomes, you need to try badness.

          wildchild


          Carolyn

            Since we were being terse yesterday, I didn't get a chance to welcome our newest speedy youngster, John.   Welcome to the masters!

             

            Happy birthday to Leslie, and well done yesterday!

            I hammered down the trail, passing rocks and trees like they were standing still.

            coastwalker


              Howdy!

               

              I wrote a much more lengthy report for today a little while ago. Before I could post it, it just disappeared. Was it because I wasn't terse???

               

              Yesterday's daily was very interesting, in a brief kind of way. For the most part, this does not seem to be a group of few words, but it was good to see how many were up to the challenge.

               

              I'm trying to imagine 3,000,000,000,000 doors. That's a long hall, Monty or otherwise...

               

              Did you find out where you were this morning, Twocat? I'm glad you had good weather for your race.

               

              TomW, I can't imagine any circumstances in which I'd be pleased to find a dog collar in the bottom of my dinner bowl. I have a feeling that your choir director doesn't have to work all that hard to make you all sound good.

               

              Tet, it's good to have choices, even if you later wished you had taken a different path. Life is full of all kinds of experiences.

               

              JGB, I'm trying to envision a conversation between the two Montys (Hall and Python), and it makes my head spin!

               

              Like Wildchild, I'd also like to welcome John. And since he said he just completed his first Master's run, I assume birthday wishes are in order. So, either HAPPY BIRTHDAY!! or never mind...

               

              Yesterday, after going to the indoor farmer's market and Trader Joe's (a terrific and tasty two-fer), DW and I got to go for a stroll on the beach. Even though it was still hat and glove weather, the sun was strong, and it was great to be out and to smell that good salt air.

               

              I had a racewalking training session this morning so, as usual, I headed up to the indoor track early to get in some miles before the group arrived. Later on, we did a group critique - with each person racewalking in front of the group and having their form/technique critiqued. It was a good experience both for those being critiqued, and those doing the assessments. It's an opportunity for everyone to learn something. We finished up the session with a short 'ladders' workout. I got in a total of 5.25 miles. Then I had to get back to town to meet DW and some friends for a late breakfast at our favorite local dive. On the way home after that, I caught the back half of a half marathon being run down our street. I saw Dick Hoyt who was, as always, pushing his son Rick's wheelchair. For those of you who don't know the Hoyt's story, look him up - it is very inspiring.

               

              Have a greta Sunday!

               

              Jay

              Without ice cream there would be darkness and chaos.

              Mariposai


                6 miles on a wet, wet, sticky wet snow.

                Now off to XT ski.

                 

                Enjoy your Monty Hall Sunday!

                "Champions are everywhereall you need is to train them properly..." ~Arthur Lydiard


                Marathon Maniac #957

                  ..oh no,

                  MATH PROBLEMS to start the daily.......

                   

                   

                  Twocat - it makes more sense with your 3,000,000,000,000 doors.  (Wow that would be a lot of doors!)

                   

                  Happy Birthday Leslie!

                   

                  Mariposai - the picture yesterday was lovely!

                   

                  Jay - you remind me that it is time for a Trader Joe's visit.

                   

                  14 miles for me outside in 34 breezy degrees.  For the last 45 minutes or so, big fluffy snowflakes were falling, but not enough to cover the newly exposed pavement.  I find that, after a winter of TM running, my pavement pace is somewhere near 11:00/mile.  Yikes!  I need to get outside more.  Heel exercises and icing after.

                   

                  I finally got all the tax information gathered, organized and calculated, and then dropped it off yesterday to our tax preparer (who also happens to be the race director of one of my spring marathons).  What a relief to have my part done!

                  Life is a headlong rush into the unknown. We can hunker down and hope nothing hits us or we can stand tall, lean into the wind and say, "Bring it on, darlin', and don't be stingy with the jalapenos."

                  stumpy77


                  Trails are hard!

                    IT seems that a lot of the terseness yesterday sounded like Haiku.  What's the meter?  7-5-7? or something like that?

                     

                    5.1 miles in shorts weather this morning.  About a  mile and a half of that with a friend that runs a little faster than me, so not surprised to see mid 8's for that piece.  What did surprise me a bit was the high 8's I saw for the last mile.

                     

                    much better than expected after a long week in Indy that involved no running.  Also involved checking out and back into the same hotel twice.  Had hoped to depart on Wednesday night, but things weren't finished enough to leave so checked back in for another couple of days.  Then tried to leave on Friday night only to get my flight cancelled, so back again for another night to leave in the morning.

                    Need a fast half for late fall.  Then I need to actually train for it.

                     

                    Dave59


                      And now for something completely different...

                       

                      A 5.47 mile run in a cold, brutal wind.

                       

                      Wait.  That really isn't different!

                       

                      If there is a prize behind a door, you best bet is to ask me what door I would pick, and then pick something different.  That would increase your odds because I never win anything.

                       

                       

                        While I am procrastinating some more math!  This time a quiz.  In the real Monty Hall problem there are three doors.  What are the odds you win the big prize if you switch after Monty Hall reveals one of the doors you did not pick has nothing behind it?  The answer can be deduced from my original post.

                        Live like you are dying not like you are afraid to die.

                        Drunken Irish Soda Bread and Irish Brown Bread this way -->  http://allrecipes.com/cook/4379041/


                        King of PhotoShop

                          TC, thank you for that explanation.  I use something similar with a pack of 52 playing cards. The contestant selects one and the dealer turns over 50 cards, not showing the chosen card and one other. Clearly, you would choose the other card.

                           

                          As to the new guy John, now he has seen terse day and Monty Hall day, I doubt he'll come back, but he's of course welcome if he braves it.

                           

                          And now for another marvelous Spareribs story. In the Cowtown (Ft. Worth, TX) 50K today, I stopped to pee at about mile 3, as I spotted a hedge alongside the course. I quickly ran behind it and I'm starting to go, when who runs by me but Opie, who yells "You ought to be ashamed of yourself!" jokingly of course, but it ensured that everyone would now look over to see what I was doing. Thanks Opie.

                           

                          I know it sounds cheesy to say I won my age group but had a bad race, but to be fair, that is what happened. I struggled every mile, ran 5:41 (25 minutes slower than last year), and came very close to dropping out.  Glad I stuck it out. Prime Rib ran me in the last six miles and when I got home I learned that I had won by even more than last year.  Other runners told me they had trouble with the wind, heat and humidity, but I have to say I felt comfortable with the conditions; I just had no energy.  You can't always predict or explain these things.  Spareribs

                            Ok., I am stumped by this Monty Hall thing.

                            The odds after he has given away the loser door is 50:50 that you picked the big winner, at that point, not from the beginning.

                            That is why I don't understand why when he does do this counter offer thing, and there are only two doors remaining, that the contestant should then switch their answer.  I understand the 100 plus doors thing, but not this.  Sure their odds were 1/3 to begin with, but now they are 1/2.  Unless, Monty is a little more enthusiastic to get the person to switch when he knows they have the wrong door.  And they still decline, being rational beings.

                             

                            Unless they have picked the "loser" door, and then he reveals and discards the "medium" prize door, then I can understand that they should switch their answer.

                             

                            I am sure Door#12 will understand this....my pea brain cannot.

                            "Ok Door#12, the previous 11 doors didn't work out, what are my chances you are the big prize?"  He would then ask, how many more doors are there?  Hmm, interesting question.

                             

                            Stumpy, I had the same thought, then I re-read mine, and it was not Haiku.

                             

                            I ran one TM mile today, then I started watching the Gold Medal Men's Hockey game (not from my TM)........and got sucked in, and then after that had lost my mojo for continuing on the TM.

                            "During a marathon, I run about two-thirds of the time. That's plenty." - Margaret Davis, 85 Ed Whitlock regarding his 2:54:48 marathon at age 73, "That was a good day. It was never a struggle."

                              .............  The answer can be deduced from my original post.

                               

                              ya know,

                              twocat has an EvilSide I had never noticed before......

                              ..nothing takes the place of persistence.....

                                Tired - did the 10 miles today, nice and slow as planned after being sick all week!!  The highlight of course getting to see our speedy Karin and her son Will!!  Love it and look forwarding to seeing you again at New Bedford!!

                                 

                                Welcome and Happy Birthday to our new master John!!  Happy Birthday to Leslie as well!!

                                Beautiful trail Posai - can't believe you can run so long on that - you are amazing!!

                                Jay - we had a great showing of MVS at Hampton today - guess more people wanted to stay somewhat local than make the trek out to Amherst -- silly people, flat and local over distance and hilly -- what were they thinking???

                                denise

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