Well I am running using 8:30 vs 8:35, so 5ish secs/per mile faster (and I might accidentally hit 8:26-8:28 for most of them).

onemile - I misunderstood and though you were running a faster MP than what 3:45 goal states. I say just stick it out at paces and if in a few weeks still feeling too much back off on the goal to maybe 3:50, I think there is a section in book about i goal not right and how to change it.

 

I am not referring to slow runs but rather runs that are on pace rather than too fast for what you can do.

Oops, I missed the McMillan reference.

Wow.. a couple thoughts...  I've never blown up in a race before.  My first marathon (and only) I ran a 1:59:46 half marathon 6 weeks out and I was planning to go for 4:20 as my goal but then the weather forecast changed to hot (into the mid 80s) so I adjusted my goal to 4:30.  I ended up running even splits but it never felt harder than my training long runs.  So I wanted to try to experience a little more marathon suffering this time. I feel like I missed that last time.  I've always been good at lining up my 5k to HM times within a minute of McMillian.  But I don't have a well run marathon to have to gauge of how that should line up.

 

Banshee - I think your half marathon time is pretty soft

 

Nachos - I'm on week 7 of my plan right now.  I guess I do secretly want to run 3:45 which is an 8:35 pace.  But I wouldn't try for it if I can't run a 1:45:00 half or faster when I do my tune up race in March.  So I guess in my mind, running my MP runs at 8:30 kind of leave that possibility open.

 

Cbus - I am planning to run a 15k tune up next Saturday so that might be when to adjust my paces? Do you think?

 

Docket - Cbus was referring to McMillian plus 12 minutes, not HM plus 12 minutes. Big difference  Hansons has you running all your long runs faster than easy, so I'm not sure if they buy into that 'you have to run your long runs super slow theory'. I feel like I've done plenty of slow runs and need to get away from that.

I agree.  Even if you don't train with or by HR it will give you a good guess of whether it's on point.  I sometimes run at Pfitz' HR ranges and some of the ranges are too fast for me, so I slowed those based on how I feel.

Simon - Nice on the weight loss.  I'm still plugging away at mine.  The strength training I've added seems to be helping trim up but no weight loss.

 

Onemile - I'd grab a HR monitor as well to see where you're at during training.  Like Nachos after 3-4 miles of warm-up my HR is an excellent indicator of my fitness as long as no extreme weather, getting mad at dogs, etc...

 

SRD for me with Legs & Back later this afternoon.  With all of the cold running going on around its nice and balmy here all week with mid 30's and low 40's as highs, love it.

Training at faster than your actual GMP can also be disastrous as you don't get as much endurance when you run on pace than when you run faster than you should.

 

I agree... A plan is a plan that is made to follow. The end.

I wonder what plan they will follow when they end up injured?

Hmm...I just figured I'd try to take 30 seconds per mile off this time- no idea if that is reasonable or not, but Goal MP is 8:30-8:45 for me now- no idea how I came up with that number!  Spin class this morning for me, nothing else to contribute

This is quite an engaging coversation.  One thing Nachos said that really caught my attention was the wild improvements made by novice marathon runners, etc...  I really cant offer very good advice as I am a novice marathoner, training without a coach, and am experimenting (conservatively in my mind) with what approach to take to this whole thing.  I can relate to all my own experience and whether it means anything to anybody or not is up to them.  

Personally, I postponed the use of Hansons plans in their book because I think they are too aggressive to achieve in the winter due to location, and because I think I need more latitude in adjusting my training due to the fact that I am a novice runner.  I love the content of the plan and fully intend to use it soon.  But when I do use it, it will be because I am completely confident that I am dialed in on the time I want to run.  Until then, I am going to use a plan that I can.....say..... go with the flow, or the ebb and tide, of my fitness gains.  I have decided to judge these gains by feel and by changes in HR.  I disagree with cbus on tuneup races being predictors of marathon pace.  Those tune up races in Pfitz are to replicate the feel of competition, to open up your stride, to pratice all things racing, not to predict GMP.  It is my honest belief that the best predictor for a marathon, is a previous marathon.  I ran a 1:46 time trial half for marathon #1 and had to run walk to a 3:58 finish.  I figured I could get to my original goal of 3:50 with better training.  I mostly finished Pfitz 18/55 (it was difficult) and felt through training I might be able to do better, did a 1:44 half and finished marathon #2 in 3:46.  Now at present and based of a 3:46 finish, where training is at, and where I think training will be, I think a finish in marathon #3 in 3:35 is possible.  If, and only if, all of this goes well, I might attempt to say "okay, lets dial Hansons in at 3:24 and get that BQ.  Those are some pretty big incremental goals IMO.  10 to 12 minutes at a shot.  I dont have a coach to guide me along in this process so its all going to be trial and error.  I think I might be able to make these jumps because I am a novice and I can see fitness gains(by HR and percieved effort) coming in large chunks.

I dont know if any of this is relevant to the conversation at all anymore.  I have rambled on so long I think I have lost what I am trying to say.

I guess what I am saying is this:  Be patient, listen to your mind and body, be somewhat aggressive in your training and somewhat conservative in your approach, and accept failure as a part of the process.

onemile - What flinders said means alot.  If you are able to recover from these runs and execute your next work out, you are helping yourself more than hurting yourself.  If you dont feel confident on raceday, and think you need to ease off of your expectations a little bit, then do it.  Cbus' philosophy on leaving a little on the course is a good one.  It gives you a reason to go out harder next time and feel strongly about what you did this time.

SORRY ABOUT THE LONG WINDED RAMBLING EVERYONE.

I think we're all over thinking this. OneMile, is this a do or die race? If you blow up at 22 miles and have to jog it in will you feel like it was wasted or a learning experience? Will you use the training and base you've built to adjust and run another marathon in the fall? If so then go for your dream goal and don't worry about the outcome until it happens. You maybe surprised. Or you may learn a valuable lesson and train and race smarter next time. I can honestly say the only marathon I regret is my first one because I royally screwed it up and didn't train at all. The other four have all been great experiences irrelevant of finishing time. I would only worry about being perfectly dialed in to a pace if it was my last/only marathon or a huge goal like a BQ. Anything else and failure or success are just relative.

This is where I am - I made the decision that this race is kind of "do or die" for me, so I have come to peace with the idea of going for sub-4, as long as the weather is good (I may be slightly reckless, but not dumb enough to be reckless in high temperatures).  On a 1:50HM, and Pfitz 18/55, I think that 4 hours is probably at the edge of my ability, and I plan to just go for it.  I've gone 14 miles at that pace, at the end of an 18 mile run, on tired legs, and hilly terrain, and felt pretty good.  My marathon is flat, flat, flat, and I will be rested.  If I blow up at 20 miles and have to jog it in....well, I'd still have nearly 80 minutes to complete a 10k before it wouldn't be a PR.  That would mean jogging it in at slower than recovery pace.  I could walk it in at 2 mph and still not have it be my worst marathon time.

Honestly, I'm treating this as kind of my last hurrah, because not long after this race I'm probably going to start trying to get pregnant.  So, this will likely be the best running shape I'm in for a while, and thus my last real chance at breaking 4 hours for a while.  So, if I blow up, my PR might still be a 4:19, and I'm cool with that.  If I don't blow up, it might be a lot better, and that would be really cool.

Banshee - It's not a do or die race per say. I have another marathon tentatively planned for fall. But I would rather blow up than finish it feeling like I did in my last one.  Ideally of course, I would suffer a ton but not blow up

Those who mentioned Heart Rate Monitors... Ugh, yuck, no. I am really not wanting to use one.

indiana - I appreciate all your comments.  What was your training like for marathon #1 and to what do you attribute your ability to not hit your goal time?

cmb- that makes sense.   I also should have a PR even if I totally screw things up so I do want to run more aggressively than if it were my first.

Cbus - with half marathon training, I went into it with a goal of 1:55 (My PR was 1:59x) and by the end of the cycle I ran a 1:46x.  And last night my 13.1x mile training run was 1:55  I know I can't expect that kind of improvement to continue though.  I guess it's hard to think in terms of incremental improvement because I haven't run one for awhile but I do want to run one in line with my PRs.  If my half PR is 1:46x still in April, I definitely wouldn't try to run faster than 3:50.  But if I would run a 1:44 or something I would expect myself to do better than 3:50. It's not really about it being a respectable time or anything. It's more that I want a time that lines up with my abilities.  Which to me means somewhere in that double HM plus 15-20 minute range (I'm not sure I buy the McMillian plus 12 theory... which I guess would be double HM plus 23 minutes for me).  That seems more conservative than I'd like to be.  I think we have a very different view on this because of how our first marathons turned out.