Ultra Runners

WS100 Lottery (Read 583 times)


I'm back!

    The thing that killed me is that the WSER runners are all experienced trail runners, not a bunch of newbie-road converts. I am not exaggerating when I say it was the most litter I have ever seen in any race. 

     

    I think this problem may be totally solved now. As I mentioned, they do pound "no littering" into you pretty well in the briefings. And also on the Memorial Day weekend training runs. I was not paying particular attention, but certainly there was not an excessive amount of litter -- I don't specifically recall seeing any.

    DoppleBock


      7.6% it is .... or @ 1 in 13 chance.

       

      Good luck everyone - I hope you all get in. 

       

      Final odds are 7.6% for one ticket, 14.6% for two, 21.1% for three, and 27.1% for four.

       

      DEC 8 LOTTERY DETAILS

      http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

      2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

       

      DoppleBock


        I am guessing you are from WI ~ Beaver Dam, WI? 

         

        I used the Glacial Trail 50 mIler for my (losing) ticket last year.

        http://a-big-horse.blogspot.com/ 

        2013 Goals ~ Mar < 3:00, 5M < 29, 10k < 35  

         


        Imminent Catastrophe

          7.6% it is .... or @ 1 in 13 chance.

           

          Good luck everyone - I hope you all get in. 

           

          Yeah. I'm 0-for 6 in the NYC Marathon lottery (odds about 15-20%) and about 1-for-5 lifetime in coin flips. OK that could be confirmation bias but I'm way less than 50-50. So I won't be holding my breath on this one and that's OK, I have a great backup plan.

          "Able to function despite imminent catastrophe"

           "To obtain the air that angels breathe you must come to Tahoe"--Mark Twain

          "The most common question from potential entrants is 'I do not know if I can do this' to which I usually answer, 'that's the whole point'.--Paul Charteris, Tarawera Ultramarathon RD.

           

          √ Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 20/21 July 2013

          Boston Marathon 21 April 2014

          Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 19/20 July 2014


          I'm back!

            My problem is, I have a score to settle with the course. But it will probably take several years to get my shot.

               and 27.1% for four.

               

               So, your saying I have a 72.9% chance i will be disappointed?


              Imminent Catastrophe

                My current avatar reflects my opinion of my chances in the lottery. That is all.

                "Able to function despite imminent catastrophe"

                 "To obtain the air that angels breathe you must come to Tahoe"--Mark Twain

                "The most common question from potential entrants is 'I do not know if I can do this' to which I usually answer, 'that's the whole point'.--Paul Charteris, Tarawera Ultramarathon RD.

                 

                √ Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 20/21 July 2013

                Boston Marathon 21 April 2014

                Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 19/20 July 2014


                I'm back!

                  One more thing. After drawing 270 tickets, they will draw 5 more -- from the pool of people physically attending the lottery. I don't know how many will be there, but that may offer a non-negligible boost for anyone who wants to hang out in Auburn next weekend.

                  HoosierDaddy


                    Yeah. I'm 0-for 6 in the NYC Marathon lottery (odds about 15-20%) and about 1-for-5 lifetime in coin flips. OK that could be confirmation bias but I'm way less than 50-50. So I won't be holding my breath on this one and that's OK, I have a great backup plan.

                     

                    some guy last year on the televised lottery for WS100 got selected for the third year in a row.

                     

                    Looked like 100-200 ppl attend the drawing last year.

                     

                    I was drawn 2x in three years for NYC - no clue how. 


                    I'm back!

                       Looked like 100-200 ppl attend the drawing last year. 

                       

                      So that's an extra few percent chance by attending, a substantial relative increase from 7.6%.


                      I'm back!

                        Ooooh, boosted odds. Now 7.9%, 15.2%, 21.9%, 28.0%.

                         

                        Snizzle


                          Probabilities.

                          You are talking probabilities, not odds.

                            Ooooh, boosted odds. Now 7.9%, 15.2%, 21.9%, 28.0%.

                             

                            They must have weeded out a few non-qualifiers or something.  


                            Uh oh... now what?

                              Probabilities.

                              You are talking probabilities, not odds.

                              No, not probabilities, just percentages of likelihood.  Probabilities are between 0.0 and 1.0 inclusive.  

                              Does we do math here?


                              Imminent Catastrophe

                                Ooooh, boosted odds. Now 7.9%, 15.2%, 21.9%, 28.0%.

                                 

                                And the trend is, next year when I'll have two chances, my odds will be about the same. 

                                "Able to function despite imminent catastrophe"

                                 "To obtain the air that angels breathe you must come to Tahoe"--Mark Twain

                                "The most common question from potential entrants is 'I do not know if I can do this' to which I usually answer, 'that's the whole point'.--Paul Charteris, Tarawera Ultramarathon RD.

                                 

                                √ Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 20/21 July 2013

                                Boston Marathon 21 April 2014

                                Tahoe Rim Trail 100M 19/20 July 2014