You cannot do it if you cannot believe it.  I have had plenty of shorter races where I think I am trained exactly the same and the race goes differently.  between sleep, hydration, nutrition and damn it, just what you body has that day.  The difference could be something you did a week or a month earlier (24 hour race 5 weeks earlier)

But since you a man of science

*  No races between now and Worlds - Only training.  In races we will always push our body harder than in training.

*  Although you disagree ... Speed ... What did you say ... John Olsen just ran a 2:32 marathon, so he will be a big factor.

*  Again speed ... When you can run faster, you body runs slower more efficiently ... less accumulated damage as the same speed

*  Anything that you can do to improve the efficiency of your stride (Might not be much there - But maybe)

But you are right ... If you show up exactly the same (Leg rest, hydration, nutrition, sleep, electrolyte balance) and run the exact same race (Pace, body lean, push off, stride length, walk breaks) and take the exact same nutrition and hydration giving the exact same effort, you should scientifically get the same result.

The body is a very complex system - That is why we do not get the same result.  I get you feel things were pretty ideal.  But everyone from the outside sees you ran 140+ miles 5 weeks before and that would limit anyone in the worlds race.  So make sure you show up to worlds without anymore races on your legs, add some LAT speed work once a week, and add some efficiency drills once or twice per week.

Finally ... believe

 

Well, certainly there's plenty of stuff that could make an 8-mile difference in the wrong direction. But I don't see what could go better in the other direction. Everything was pretty close to optimal here, and I found my limit. 

 

The only caveat here is that I don't know how much my muscles were impacted by the 24-hour five weeks earlier.

I'm with you on everything here except maybe the efficiency drills. I think 24-hour is ultimately about cumulative muscle damage, so a form that minimizes this is more important than the most energy-efficient form: I don't think these are necessarily the same. And optimal form at speed is not at all optimal form at 8:45 - 9:00 pace. Also I will have to be careful with the LAT work. I've been able to run higher mileage the past couple of years by cutting out all speedwork. I have a handful of issues that are mostly under control that can easily get out of hand if I hit them with too much stress.

I'm not going to get hung up on a magic number like 160, or even 250K. The main thing is to compete for the AG world title. And I will have some very serious competition there. There are at least four guys I expect to be there with better recent PRs than mine, and another who ran about a kilometer less than I did last weekend. Yeah, I basically own 24-hour over 50 in the US (see this: https://goo.gl/9qnOkG). Outside the US, it's a much more competitive world.

If there's one thing I've learned here, it's that greed kills, even if it's very moderate greed. I will use the best analysis I can to come up with an ideal pacing plan as the race approaches.

You cannot do it if you cannot believe it.  I have had plenty of shorter races where I think I am trained exactly the same and the race goes differently.  between sleep, hydration, nutrition and damn it, just what you body has that day.  The difference could be something you did a week or a month earlier (24 hour race 5 weeks earlier)

 

But since you a man of science

*  No races between now and Worlds - Only training.  In races we will always push our body harder than in training.

*  Although you disagree ... Speed ... What did you say ... John Olsen just ran a 2:32 marathon, so he will be a big factor.

*  Again speed ... When you can run faster, you body runs slower more efficiently ... less accumulated damage as the same speed

*  Anything that you can do to improve the efficiency of your stride (Might not be much there - But maybe)

 

But you are right ... If you show up exactly the same (Leg rest, hydration, nutrition, sleep, electrolyte balance) and run the exact same race (Pace, body lean, push off, stride length, walk breaks) and take the exact same nutrition and hydration giving the exact same effort, you should scientifically get the same result.

 

The body is a very complex system - That is why we do not get the same result.  I get you feel things were pretty ideal.  But everyone from the outside sees you ran 140+ miles 5 weeks before and that would limit anyone in the worlds race.  So make sure you show up to worlds without anymore races on your legs, add some LAT speed work once a week, and add some efficiency drills once or twice per week.

 

Finally ... believe

I am sure you will have a great plan

I agree that it takes only a small over pace to kill you race.  My good zone in the 2 race I did well at = 76-80 miles in the 1st 12 hours.  I tried 82 and that was over the red line.

Congratulations Bob!  I read and even study your reports.

I was following your performance while also checking on my friend Laurie Dymond.

The muscle damage puzzle is interesting.  I wonder if a "train heavy / race light" approach would help.  I am thinking you could gradually add weight with a water pack or weight belt through your training cycle to increase the load your legs support and adapt to.  Maybe race day muscle damage would be delayed or reduced during the race.

Wishing you the best.