Notes
Not a race, just final long run before race, marking it a race for PB record-keeping purpose.
Condition: Same course as race (3 loops), ran 2.5+ out of the 3 loops. Start temp ~66F 96% humidity. End temp ~75F 76% humidity. Did not carb-load beforehand. 3 days of recovery pace run before this run. Carried 2 small water bottles on belt.
Goal for this practice: Try to narrow down goal pace/time expectation for race in 3 weeks. Get familiar with running at or near MP. Need to experience a good effort run for over 3 hours. Get an idea for when to push effort, and how long can I last before fading, and how badly will it be. Upper bound race prediction based on recent 5k time that didn't suck (20:13) is 3:22:12. Lower bound race prediction based on recent HM time (1:37:37) is 3:26:22. I'm trying to get a feel for sub 3:30 and how difficult sub 3:25 would be. Was not completely sold on 3:30 being a sure thing.
Plan before this practice: Guessed goal pace to be 5'/k (~8'/mi). Planned to do 30k (18mi) or more. Doing it in 3 chunks. First 10k try to find an easy effort slower than MP and keep it there. 2nd 10k try to maintain at or slightly faster than goal MP. 3rd 10k I will either have something left to push even faster than MP, or struggle to just maintain MP. Whatever my pace is at the end, try to push the last section until I fade and slow down, see how long can I hold up for a serious push.
Actually what happened in this practice: See notes next to table record
Feedback:
1) Should not be pushing effort until past the 2nd lap (at least beyond 17 miles) preferably after 21 miles. Seems like I won't be able to hold on to increased effort for more than 10k.
2) Need vaseline under right armpit
3) 1 gel pack after each loop seems reasonable
4) sub-3:30 should be doable. Under perfect condition, can probably shoot for sub 3:25, but still not sure how far under, but 3:23 seems to be the limit, I don't think I can do faster than 5k-based prediction.
5) Need to do some work on my core, these particular areas (and the lower back) were the weakest and hurt the most past the 2nd lap:
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-bXewK6iRIz8/VChkZpqZi_I/AAAAAAAADr8/FE3e4xwX5pk/s410/muscles.jpg
Current race plan for actual race:
1st lap go out and find an easy pace under 5'/k (8'/mi), should settle down to something slight faster, in the 4:45-4:55/k (7:39-7:55/mi range). Stay at it and do not push until at least past 2nd lap. After 2nd lap, start the push at around 20 mile with about 10k left. If all goes well, fight it to the end, otherwise if things fall apart, worst-case I'll fade in the last 3 miles (5k) and will still be able to salvage a 3:30.