Is sub 3 possible for me in 9 weeks? 16 weeks actually (Read 620 times)

    I will try to discipline myself on the pace. My goal is 2:59:59. :-) I think there will be only about 100 people running the marathon, so I doubt there will be a pacer.

     

    I am not good at disciplining my pace at the early stage. My last marathon was 3 minute positive split.

     

    Today I had a good 17-mile run, average at 8:00/mi. At the end of the run, my legs were a little tired, but I felt still full of energy. I tried to discipline myself not to run too fast. I kept reminding myself that I am taping down for a full recovery and don't do anything stupid.

    5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)


    Feeling the growl again

      don't do anything stupid.

       

      From here on out that is the key to your training.  Some short fast work but nothing that really leaves you tired.  Good luck and I hope you prove us nay-sayers wrong if you're going to go for it.

      "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

       


        When I was a kid, I told my mom that I will run faster marathon than Zatopek (I was reading about him that time). She patted me on the head and said sure son. Years latter, I gave her the medal from the race I did it and it's been her priced possession since.

         

         

        This is awesome


        I'm back!


          I'm back!

            I will try to discipline myself on the pace. My goal is 2:59:59. :-) I think there will be only about 100 people running the marathon, so I doubt there will be a pacer.

             

            I am not good at disciplining my pace at the early stage. 

             

            I'm not remotely qualified to contradict Goo here re pacing. But I will say that running even/negative splits, at least at our level, is really one of the easier aspects of racing. It boggles my mind how many people just can't pace. Of course, if you run the first half in 1:30:30 and still run 3:20, that's not a pacing failure; it's just a misestimation of fitness.

             

            But having put in the months of training... there is absolutely no excuse for going out too fast. Lock it in at 6:55 through the half. It's really not that hard. Last mile was too fast? Make the next mile slower. Learn to do the math in your head. 6:55 is easy -- the next mile's target time is just this mile's target time plus 7 minutes, minus 5 seconds. Always keep the next goal split in your head; re-check at every mile. Also, check at the mile markers, not on your Garmin's auto lap. Better to set it to manual lap.

             

            "Banking time" is almost always a recipe for failure. I prefer to bank energy. I'd rather have more in the tank when I get to M20, even if it means I have to run a little faster then, because the reverse situation tends to lead to catastrophic failure. You can't make up for starting faster than you're fit for.

            Goorun


              ... I will say that running even/negative splits, at least at our level, is really one of the easier aspects of racing. It boggles my mind how many people just can't pace. Of course, if you run the first half in 1:30:30 and still run 3:20, that's not a pacing failure; it's just a misestimation of fitness.

               

               

               

              "Banking time" is almost always a recipe for failure. I prefer to bank energy. I'd rather have more in the tank when I get to M20, even if it means I have to run a little faster then, because the reverse situation tends to lead to catastrophic failure. You can't make up for starting faster than you're fit for.

              I agree with this 100%. In my case, it's not that I can't pace, I just push pace a bit (only a little bit) faster than I should. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Even I've never ran negative split in a marathon (I usually do in shorter races), in my best marathons I was within seconds to a couple minutes max.

              As an example, these are my actual 5k splits for first 25k/15 miles in 2013 Boston. I was not in a shape to go that fast because of injury during my training, but I was trying to help a friend (QE who posts in L&O) trying to break 2:50. He didn't there, but ran 2:45 this spring.

              I don't run with Garmin, just a simple running watch where I can take my splits, so it is all by my internal clock. When I run, I know my splits without looking at my watch most the time.

              0-5      20:17

              5-10    20:16

              10-15  20:10

              15-20  20:12

              half  1:25:18

              20-25  20:13

              I lost QE around there and consciously slowed down to be able to finish in time I was expecting. I wrote in my runner's diary 3 weeks before Boston that I'm in 2:55 shape. I ran 2:55:04.

              Slow and steady never wins anything.


              Mmmmm...beer

                Just read the whole thread, and as someone who is also working towards a sub-3, I found some really good info here.  Thanks goo/spaniel/bhearn/everyone else who contributed!

                 

                Good luck David!

                -Dave

                My running blog

                2015 Goals | sub-18 5k | sub-37 10k | sub-1:23 HM | sub-4 trail 50k


                Happy

                  I learned a lot from this thread. Pacing is going to be the most obvious challenge, David. Is the race the "Maritime Race Weekend Marathon" in Fisherman's Cove, Nova Scotia on Sept 13? If so, it looks like fewer than 100 finished it last year. So, not only will there be no pacer, there might not be many runners in front of you at all (only 2 finished under 3 hours last year -- winner was 2:50, second was 2:59Tight lippedx). I'd really watch your GPS (particularly early on -- no 5:35 first mile!) and follow bhearn's pacing advice.

                  Some silver lining stuff:

                  -- your "failed" time trial included approximately a 19:05-ish 5K time (almost a 2 minute PR);

                  -- your "9 weeks" (from your original post) will be closer to 16 or 17 weeks by race day, enough time for a pretty regular marathon build-up;

                  and

                  -- Sept 13 instead of July 26-27 has to help temperature-wise, I would think.

                  I hope you do it. Good Luck!

                  "Strawberry cheesecake is my absolute favorite thing to eat after a marathon."  -- Meb Keflezighi

                     

                    I'm not remotely qualified to contradict Goo here re pacing. But I will say that running even/negative splits, at least at our level, is really one of the easier aspects of racing. It boggles my mind how many people just can't pace. Of course, if you run the first half in 1:30:30 and still run 3:20, that's not a pacing failure; it's just a misestimation of fitness.

                     

                    But having put in the months of training... there is absolutely no excuse for going out too fast. Lock it in at 6:55 through the half. It's really not that hard. Last mile was too fast? Make the next mile slower. Learn to do the math in your head. 6:55 is easy -- the next mile's target time is just this mile's target time plus 7 minutes, minus 5 seconds. Always keep the next goal split in your head; re-check at every mile. Also, check at the mile markers, not on your Garmin's auto lap. Better to set it to manual lap.

                     

                    "Banking time" is almost always a recipe for failure. I prefer to bank energy. I'd rather have more in the tank when I get to M20, even if it means I have to run a little faster then, because the reverse situation tends to lead to catastrophic failure. You can't make up for starting faster than you're fit for.

                     

                    I will definitely bear in mind on that. Here it is marked in KM. So 3 hour's pace is 4:15/km. I probably just run with that pace. It is easier to calculate.

                    5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)


                    I'm back!

                      I will definitely bear in mind on that. Here it is marked in KM. So 3 hour's pace is 4:15/km. I probably just run with that pace. It is easier to calculate.

                       

                      Yeah, I would probably do that too. But I wouldn't be afraid to accumulate a deficit through the half, up to about 0:30.

                        I learned a lot from this thread. Pacing is going to be the most obvious challenge, David. Is the race the "Maritime Race Weekend Marathon" in Fisherman's Cove, Nova Scotia on Sept 13? If so, it looks like fewer than 100 finished it last year. So, not only will there be no pacer, there might not be many runners in front of you at all (only 2 finished under 3 hours last year -- winner was 2:50, second was 2:59Tight lippedx). I'd really watch your GPS (particularly early on -- no 5:35 first mile!) and follow bhearn's pacing advice.

                        Some silver lining stuff:

                        -- your "failed" time trial included approximately a 19:05-ish 5K time (almost a 2 minute PR);

                        -- your "9 weeks" (from your original post) will be closer to 16 or 17 weeks by race day, enough time for a pretty regular marathon build-up;

                        and

                        -- Sept 13 instead of July 26-27 has to help temperature-wise, I would think.

                        I hope you do it. Good Luck!

                        Yes, it is. Just over 100 will run the marathon this time. The organizer keeps in 3000 people in all events. I get used of running alone. :-) In the last two races (the full and the half), I pretty much ran alone. I hope the weather will be good.

                        5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)

                          Regarding pacing by GPS, you can only rely on it so much.  It's not unusual for your final distance to show 26.4 or more.  So look at your splits by mile or km marker not by GPS.

                            I still feel quite tired every day in general, my legs are fresh though. I don't feel my energy is storing. By the way, I run in the evening after work during the week day. I can't get up so early to run in the morning.

                             

                            This evening I ran 4 miles on treadmill. It was ok. 8:30, 7:36, 7:36, then 6:50 for half mile (I tried feeling the MP at 79F), then 8:00 for the last half mile.

                            5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)

                              I lost track. When did your 9 week clock start?

                                I lost track. When did your 9 week clock start?

                                 

                                It became 16 weeks from the date I posted.

                                5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - 6:10/mi for 4mi (08/14), FM - 3:03 (09/14)