RunningAHEAD - Topic: Other than experience, what's a good pace predictor?

jayheavner

posted: 8/25/2008 at 5:19 PM

Here's my issue...To date I've ran 8 or 9 races in the past year from 5K to 10 milers. The only races where I felt like I left everything on the course was the 10 miler and mostly because I didn't have the endurance to race it. Let's just use a 5K since it's the shortest. Assuming that endurance isn't an issue, how can I find the proper race pace that ensures I leave everything on the course? Generally I go out and jog 3 miles and then sprint the last 200m. That's not very efficient. I'm starting to realize that all of my training/racing paces are pretty much completely arbitrary. I'm working on throwing my training paces out the window but now I'm curious how I'm actually supposed to run a race. Can a 400m or 800m be used as a 5K predictor?

2008 Goals Don't attack the guy that passes me like I'm standing still when I think I'm running fast...I can't catch him anyway and I'd just look silly

xor

posted: 8/25/2008 at 5:26 PM

Can a 400m or 800m be used as a 5K predictor?

Yes, but not a very good one. And I'm betting you don't mean a 400m or 800m race. So if you are going to try to predict your 5k race time based on an 800m solo time trial, then why don't you try a few 5k solo time trials instead? My bet is that you will race a 5k faster than your solo time trial, but it will give you a place to start. And you can do it several times (over a few weeks, not the same day) and dial in a good pace. Or. Go sign up for more 5ks. You will figure it out over time. If you are good and/or lucky. Me? After a ton of races at all kinds of distances (and I do mean LOTS), I still screw up. OFTEN. That's part of why it is fun to me, honestly.

jayheavner

posted: 8/25/2008 at 5:30 PM

I've tried the time trial thing but I generally crash-and-burn before I finish or don't give enough effort. I stopped doing it because I wanted to run longer distances and I was concerned that I was running too hard too frequently. Maybe there's really no other way than to just slowly dial it in.

2008 Goals Don't attack the guy that passes me like I'm standing still when I think I'm running fast...I can't catch him anyway and I'd just look silly

Marcus L S

The Greatest of All Time

posted: 8/25/2008 at 5:47 PM

Quote from jayheavner on 8/25/2008 at 5:30 PM:

Maybe there's really no other way than to just slowly dial it in.

I think you're on to something there. Patience. Patience. Patience.

all you touch and all you see, is all your life will ever be

Obesity is a disease. Yes, a disease where nothing tastes bad...except salads.

AaronC

I run for Fried Chicken!

posted: 8/25/2008 at 6:20 PM

Have you tried one of those calculators? The ones that I've tried have been pretty accurate for me. Here are 2 that I like. http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/mcmillanrunningcalculator.htm http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/paces.php

jEfFgObLuE

I've got a fever...

posted: 8/25/2008 at 6:23 PM

Quote from jayheavner on 8/25/2008 at 5:19 PM:

Can a 400m or 800m be used as a 5K predictor?

Not really. These runs are much more anaerobic than a 5k. Most common race calculators are valid only for 1 mile and up because of this. McMillan makes some allowance for shorter distances, but they are really only guesses. I knew I guy whose 800m PR was 2:18. Not all that impressive. However, his best mile was 4:40. More impressive. His 2-mile time was in the 9:20s. Very impressive. It was like he was one big slow-twitch muscle, he simply couldn't run a short race fast too safe his life, but once you got 2-miles and above, he was a stud. Point being that 400m and 800m races aren't the best predictors of 5k times. (However, speed never hurts. Consider yourself lucky if you have it).

On your deathbed, you won't wish that you'd spent more time at the office. But you will wish that you'd spent more time running. Because if you had, you wouldn't be on your deathbed.

Dakota RR

Right on Hereford...

posted: 8/25/2008 at 6:26 PM
modified: 8/25/2008 at 6:32 PM

Quote from jayheavner on 8/25/2008 at 5:19 PM:

Generally I go out and jog 3 miles and then sprint the last 200m. That's not very efficient. I'm starting to realize that all of my training/racing paces are pretty much completely arbitrary. I'm working on throwing my training paces out the window but now I'm curious how I'm actually supposed to run a race.

In your next 5k, go out and jog 2 miles and then push as hard as you can all the way to the finish. Then, in the one after that, go out and jog 1 mile and then push as hard as you can all the way to the finish. Then, in the one after that, go out and push as hard as you can all the way to the finish. You will quickly find out what 5k race pace should feel like. By the way, I use my breathing rate as a good indicator of how hard I'm working. For recovery runs, I'm at a 4:4 rate (breathe in for 4 steps, breathe out for 4 steps). Normal easy runs are 3:3. Tempos are at 2:2. For a 5k race, I start at 3:3 and transition to 2:2 within 30 seconds to a minute. By the finish (and sometimes as much as the entire last mile), I'm at 1:2.

jEfFgObLuE

I've got a fever...

posted: 8/25/2008 at 6:27 PM

To answer your other question: Try a 5k predictor workout. Do 3x1 mile with only 1-minute recovery. Do the miles at the fastest pace you can sustain through the whole workout. This will be really close to your 5k race pace. If you find yourself getting faster as you go, good on ya. If you find yourself getting slower, you'll know that you bit of a little more than you can chew. This is better than a solo time trial because it's hard to marshal a full all-out effort for 5k by yourself. However, breaking the distance up into three segments with planned recovery is far more realistic when running solo.

On your deathbed, you won't wish that you'd spent more time at the office. But you will wish that you'd spent more time running. Because if you had, you wouldn't be on your deathbed.

xor

posted: 8/25/2008 at 6:51 PM

I agree with that workout (though for the somewhat-beginner, I dunno about "far more" realistic... but perhaps). A realistic 5k time trial is a difficult thing to pull-off. But a better predictor than a 400m or an 800m. To do that workout, one might have to try it a few times before getting it right. Hard to know at M1 whether that was the pace you can sustain for the whole workout until you've finished the workout and said "no, I started too fast", "no, I could hold that for the whole workout... but I could probably do better" or "yup, got it." As with the 5k time trial, a person new to this workout will probably have to try it a few times to dial it in just right. I think I'll go try this workout next week and see what I can do. It's pretty cool.

MichiganFlyer

posted: 8/26/2008 at 7:41 AM

Quote from jayheavner on 8/25/2008 at 5:19 PM:

Here's my issue...To date I've ran 8 or 9 races in the past year from 5K to 10 milers. The only races where I felt like I left everything on the course was the 10 miler and mostly because I didn't have the endurance to race it. Let's just use a 5K since it's the shortest. Assuming that endurance isn't an issue, how can I find the proper race pace that ensures I leave everything on the course? Generally I go out and jog 3 miles and then sprint the last 200m. That's not very efficient. I'm starting to realize that all of my training/racing paces are pretty much completely arbitrary. I'm working on throwing my training paces out the window but now I'm curious how I'm actually supposed to run a race. Can a 400m or 800m be used as a 5K predictor?

Run the 1st mile comfortably hard. This is a pace you feel you could run the full 3.1 miles at.

mikeymike

posted: 8/26/2008 at 7:52 AM

Dude, just practice. Run a lot of races. Sometimes you'll go out too slow, more times than not you'll go out to fast and blow up. Big deal. Eventually you'll figure it out. Chill out, you're not going to master running in a week.

Runners run

jayheavner

posted: 8/26/2008 at 9:50 AM

Quote from jEfFgObLuE on 8/25/2008 at 6:27 PM:

To answer your other question: Try a 5k predictor workout. Do 3x1 mile with only 1-minute recovery. Do the miles at the fastest pace you can sustain through the whole workout. This will be really close to your 5k race pace. If you find yourself getting faster as you go, good on ya. If you find yourself getting slower, you'll know that you bit of a little more than you can chew. This is better than a solo time trial because it's hard to marshal a full all-out effort for 5k by yourself. However, breaking the distance up into three segments with planned recovery is far more realistic when running solo.

I should actually have some old interval workouts from this spring that mirror this pretty closely. I'll go back and look at those and see what my splits looked like and start from there. I'm not looking for an exact number, just a good target.

2008 Goals Don't attack the guy that passes me like I'm standing still when I think I'm running fast...I can't catch him anyway and I'd just look silly

JimHowe

posted: 8/26/2008 at 9:53 AM

Most people I see posting on forums don't race enough, imo. Some of the most common thread headings are of the "how fast can I run x distance?" or "what pace should I go for in my next race?" variety. There is no better way to find out than to run some races. Doing intervals on the track, trying to hit even splits, is another good way.

Age 60 plus best times: 5k 19:00, 10k 38:35, 10m 1:05:30, HM 1:24:09, 30k 2:04:33

mikeymike

posted: 8/26/2008 at 10:00 AM

I can't predict race times from workouts. Just doesn't work for me. If I did Globule's 3 x mile with 1 min recovery workout to predict my 5K, I'd wind up aiming for about an 18:20 5K, which I could probably do while drunk at this point I'm with Jim. You want to know how fast you can race? Race.

Runners run

Trent

Good Bad & The Monkey

posted: 8/26/2008 at 10:13 AM

Quote from mikeymike on 8/26/2008 at 10:00 AM:

an 18:20 5K, which I could probably do while drunk at this point

E.P.

I'm running somewhere tomorrow. It's going to be beautiful. I can't wait.

Poor baby

Other than experience, what's a good pace predictor? (Read 1058 times)