1st Marathon and your Marathon PR? (Read 357 times)

    Ok, I know lots of you are scared off with all these sub 3 and sub 4 times, so I will speak up to encourage the silent majority who are out there looking at this thread with trepidation . (Who would have thought back in the 60's and 70's I'd be in the silent majority?)

    5:27:19 (Age 60)

    4:51:59 (Older than that, even)

      4:49 in 2003

      3:09 in 2012 (age 53)

      Jeriod


        3:21 (50 y)

        2:59 (56 y)

          Awesome Thread! I love this data. I love it so much I've compiled it by hand and here are the results.

           

          First my own:

          3:54

          3:37

           

          Now the rest. I recorded 71 data points ranging from a 2:35 to 5:46 first marathon and a 2:28 to 4:51 pr marathon. With the greatest improvement being 1:48! So here is the break down. Let me know if you want me to mess with the data in other ways. The numbers below are the averages in each time category.

           

          Time Categories First Marathon PR Marathon Improvement
          > 4:30 4:53 3:48 1:04
          4 - 4:30 4:17 3:24 0:52
          3:30 - 4 3:48 3:13 0:35
          3 - 3:30 3:16 3:00 0:16
          < 3 2:49 2:38 0:11
          Overall 4:00 3:19 0:41

           

          So nothing too surprising here. The faster your first marathon, the more you improve. I was surprised overall with how much folks were able to improve. It gives me hope based on my time. If I am the average RunningAHEAD marathoner I should be able to get my time down to about ~3:14ish Smile

          2014 Goal: Run faster than 3:37:07 in the NYC Marathon


          Mostly Harmless

            4:29:52 - 3/18/12

            3:54:51 - 3/16/13 (second marathon)

             "Address the process rather than the outcome.
            Then, the outcome becomes more likely." - Robert Fripp


            Hungry

              Awesome Thread! I love this data. I love it so much I've compiled it by hand and here are the results.

               

              First my own:

              3:54

              3:37

               

              Now the rest. I recorded 71 data points ranging from a 2:35 to 5:46 first marathon and a 2:28 to 4:51 pr marathon. With the greatest improvement being 1:48! So here is the break down. Let me know if you want me to mess with the data in other ways. The numbers below are the averages in each time category.

               

              Time Categories First Marathon PR Marathon Improvement
              > 4:30 4:53 3:48 1:04
              4 - 4:30 4:17 3:24 0:52
              3:30 - 4 3:48 3:13 0:35
              3 - 3:30 3:16 3:00 0:16
              < 3 2:49 2:38 0:11
              Overall 4:00 3:19 0:41

               

              So nothing too surprising here. The faster your first marathon, the more you improve. I was surprised overall with how much folks were able to improve. It gives me hope based on my time. If I am the average RunningAHEAD marathoner I should be able to get my time down to about ~3:14ish Smile

              Very cool! Thanks for doing this. (I think you meant to say, "The slower your first marathon, the more you improve.")

              I would love to improve on my First/PR from 19 years ago! I'm relying heavily on this data to predict my next finish time! Smile

                Very cool! Thanks for doing this. (I think you meant to say, "The slower your first marathon, the more you improve.")

                I would love to improve on my First/PR from 19 years ago! I'm relying heavily on this data to predict my next finish time! Smile

                 

                My mistake. You are correct. Glad you find it useful Smile

                2014 Goal: Run faster than 3:37:07 in the NYC Marathon


                Interval Junkie --Nobby

                   If I am the average RunningAHEAD marathoner I should be able to get my time down to about ~3:14ish Smile

                   

                  Would be fun if Eric put avg PRs for the whole RA population on the website somewhere.

                  2014 Goals:  sub-3 Marathon 

                  Current Status 06/19: Pelvic stress-fracture = 6-weeks of no running.

                  ilanarama


                  Hi, Mom!

                    4:33:19 age 41

                    3:29:13 age 48

                    Ilana is awesome. She lives in a cool place, drinks good beer, and runs hard. She should start a fucking lifestyle blog for chicks. - NC Runner

                     

                    PRs: 5K 21:03 (4/2012) 10K 43:06 (12/2011) 13.1 1:35:55 (10/2013) 26.2 3:23:31 (12/2013)

                    Next up: Steamworks Half 6/7 | bloggy stuff at http://ilanarama.dreamwidth.org

                    Julia1971


                       

                      Would be fun if Eric put avg PRs for the whole RA population on the website somewhere.

                       

                      I'm not a math/science type but I think the problem is that you really would need to separate out male/female, younger/older for any type of data to be useful.  And, I think fitness before first marathon would be even more important - first marathon for a couch potato vs. first marathon for a fit person is a different story.  I would wager fit people have less room to improve in the first place.

                       

                      Plus, Eric's needs to work on apps.  Wink

                      Run the mile you are in.


                      Got Hills?

                        1st marathon (2006 - Mystic Places)  3:00:40

                        PR marathon (2010 - Hartford)  2:51:11

                        "Not to touch the Earth, not to see the Sun, nothing left to do but run, run, run..."

                          3:50 1996 Atlanta Marathon

                          3:05 2009 Flying Pig Marathon

                             

                             

                            Time Categories First Marathon PR Marathon Improvement
                            > 4:30 4:53 3:48 1:04
                            4 - 4:30 4:17 3:24 0:52
                            3:30 - 4 3:48 3:13 0:35
                            3 - 3:30 3:16 3:00 0:16
                            < 3 2:49 2:38 0:11
                            Overall 4:00 3:19 0:41

                             

                             

                            Well I find this analysis exceedingly cool, mainly because I have run one marathon at 4:16, and based the above data, I will achieve <3:25 and BQ. Which I have difficulty imagining actually doing.

                            I will therefore choose to ignore the fact that the analysis probably has no statistical significance whatsoever.

                            Dave

                            dallison


                            registered pw

                              3:42, but i didn't train for it. I ran a 17 miler the week before and decided to do the Harrisburg marathon  since everyone from New York was coming to town and thought it would be a really neat thing to do with all of these people. I registered ont he last day, which was 3-4 days before the race. I was happy with the results and at the end of the race, i said, never again. i am a gluten for punishment.

                               

                              Fast forward to now, i am a tad bit wiser. I have ramped up my mileage and am doing 20-25 milers to acclimate myself to the long distance. I am hoping to knock 20-25 minutes off of my first one.

                              I am planning on running one memorial day weekend. I'm hoping to average a 7:30-7:40 mile.

                              2013 goals:

                              sub 19 5k

                              sub 1:30 half

                              3:20 marathon on second try


                              Feeling the growl again

                                Awesome Thread! I love this data. I love it so much I've compiled it by hand and here are the results.

                                 

                                First my own:

                                3:54

                                3:37

                                 

                                Now the rest. I recorded 71 data points ranging from a 2:35 to 5:46 first marathon and a 2:28 to 4:51 pr marathon. With the greatest improvement being 1:48! So here is the break down. Let me know if you want me to mess with the data in other ways. The numbers below are the averages in each time category.

                                 

                                Time Categories First Marathon PR Marathon Improvement
                                > 4:30 4:53 3:48 1:04
                                4 - 4:30 4:17 3:24 0:52
                                3:30 - 4 3:48 3:13 0:35
                                3 - 3:30 3:16 3:00 0:16
                                < 3 2:49 2:38 0:11
                                Overall 4:00 3:19 0:41

                                 

                                So nothing too surprising here. The faster your first marathon, the more you improve. I was surprised overall with how much folks were able to improve. It gives me hope based on my time. If I am the average RunningAHEAD marathoner I should be able to get my time down to about ~3:14ish Smile

                                 

                                Very nice.  It would be nice to see the data points (N) for each category, and 90% confidence intervals/standard deviations if you want to play with it more.  It would be nice to visualize the variability/error bars.

                                "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand