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Mo Farah in the marathon (Read 400 times)

    any predictions for mo in the marathon? I think he should do well since he is perhaps the greatest runner in the world currently. But will he be as good in the marathon as he is on the track?

      any predictions for mo in the marathon? I think he should do well since he is perhaps the greatest runner in the world currently. But will he be as good in the marathon as he is on the track?

       

      What marathon is he running?


      Feeling the growl again

         

        What marathon is he running?

         

        London

         

        MTA:  Translating track performance to the marathon is not something most runners have done quickly.  Tergat and Geb both took a few learning races to really maximize what they could do in the marathon.

         

        Couple that with the marathon no longer being what you do once your track career is waning (ie Tergat and Geb), now due to the money shifting to the marathon you have crowds of young, talented East Africans going straight to the marathon.  

        I wish Mo well but I don't expect to see him winning his debut.

        "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

         

        SillyC


          Still, love to see Mo on TV!  He's awesome!

            I wish Mo well but I don't expect to see him winning his debut.

             

            I want to agree with you but he did run under 61 for that half marathon last year at the end of his track season, so he had little strength built up compared to a normal buildup. It will be very interesting


            Feeling the growl again

               

              I want to agree with you but he did run under 61 for that half marathon last year at the end of his track season, so he had little strength built up compared to a normal buildup. It will be very interesting

               

              I agree it will be interesting.  IMHO a half marathon has much more in common with a 10K than a marathon.  There are a number of sub-60 HM runners who have not been able to make matching performances in the marathon.

              "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

               

              TripleBock


                I would agree with Spaniel - I will cheer for him, but there will be at least 5 runners with much better odds at winning the London Marathon.  Mo could win, but I would consider it an upset in his 1st attempt.  I think he is in the 2nd group of top elites, that could win, but things have to go really good and that top group of elite have to have problems.

                 

                I sure hope he proves me wrong.  I think if he ran 2:05:45 -2:07:00 he could finish top five and it would be a huge race for him.

                I am fuller bodied than Dopplebock

                  How many guys named Mutai will beat him? Over/Under is at 1.

                  Runners run.


                  Feeling the growl again

                    I would agree with Spaniel - I will cheer for him, but there will be at least 5 runners with much better odds at winning the London Marathon.  Mo could win, but I would consider it an upset in his 1st attempt.  I think he is in the 2nd group of top elites, that could win, but things have to go really good and that top group of elite have to have problems.

                     

                    I sure hope he proves me wrong.  I think if he ran 2:05:45 -2:07:00 he could finish top five and it would be a huge race for him.

                     

                    One thing I will say -- if the race gets tactical -- the others are stupid if they allow Mo to be in the lead group with a mile or two left.

                    "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

                     

                       

                      One thing I will say -- if the race gets tactical -- the others are stupid if they allow Mo to be in the lead group with a mile or two left.

                       

                      I'm no expert, at all, but I like this thought.  If they run a tactical race and let him stay in a comfortable zone (relatively speaking), he could be really dangerous in a late surge.  Would seem foolish to let a guy with his strength hand around until late in the race.

                       

                       

                      "I aim to misbehave."

                        Yeah but when is London ever a tactical race? Usually they go out at world record pace and see who survives.

                        Runners run.

                          He has said that he would like to break the British record. That's Steve Jones' 2:07:13 from Chicago in 1985. If he goes out at that kind of pace and pushes on if he's feeling good towards the end he could do well. If they go out at WR pace and he goes with that it probably won't end well for him. But he should know better than we do what he's capable of at the moment...


                          Sultan of slug

                            Yeah but when is London ever a tactical race? Usually they go out at world record pace and see who survives.

                            And of course this year they're being paced at WR pace for 30 km by Haile.

                             

                            Although I don't know what I'm talking about, I think it makes sense that Mo will need a couple races under his belt before he can think of winning. At the world-class level, those guys are riding a thin line between glory and destruction. Here's a fascinating post that describes the horror of last year's London Marathon as the leaders self-destructed one by one as they each tried to surge to just under WR pace.

                             

                            It goes to show that you need some experience to calibrate your pace (it also goes to show that we're a long, long way from a sub-2 marathon). I think slower marathoners like me have a lot more wiggle room. If a 3-hour guy pushes a little too hard for 10 miles, then sure, you're screwed, but you can probably manage to run the stretch from 20 to 25k a bit too fast and still recover.

                             

                            That said, I'm going to be rooting hard for Mo and hoping he manages to surprise everyone with a win!


                            HobbyJogger & HobbyRacer

                              They couldn't get any sub-2:03 guys?

                              It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.

                                1:01:17 for the half in NYC, and he ran into a little trouble with a fall (apparently a self-trip, clipped his own leg) and then a collapse and faint just after he crossed the line.

                                 

                                At London my guess is 2:07+/- about 1:05, 5th to 7th place. He'll be competitive but may or may not become a great one at the marathon.

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