6 weeks until Marathon Day (Read 415 times)

My next marathon is fast approaching on May 30th. My goal back in Feb (when I signed) up was to break 4 hrs and I thought 3:55-3:59 would a reasonable goal. I finished a half marathon a few weeks ago with a time of 1:47 (8 minute PR!). Looking at some of the race predictors this puts me at a 3:47 marathon time. I need 3:45 to qualify for Boston. The McMillian race predictor was accurate for my last marathon. Based on my half time last summer, I was predicted to run a 4:03 marathon. I finished the Portland Marathon in 4:02:51, so it was right on target. Qualifying for Boston was to be my goal for next year. With my race times improving, I am starting to wonder if I may manage it this year??? I am looking for any advice to help me improve in the short 6 weeks I have left.

I think 3:45 is very ambitious on your lower miles per week. 3:47 - 3:50 is possible with a great race and great weather. My suggestion is to do some quality work within a mid week long run of 8-10 miles where you do either marathon pace miles (4-6 miles) rotated with half marathon paced reps the next week (4 X 1 mile w/ 2min jog recovery) w/ 100-200M quick striders after with full recovery. I would also do a faster finish long run (last couple miles) if feeling ok. If you are beat and struggling to finish then don't do this. Also, on your lower miles I would not over taper. Maybe do last real long run 2 weeks before race (like 16 miles) and then the last week, just cut any intense work other than striders and cut your miles a bit especially as race approaches (last 10 day) but not crazy. I think many lower mileage runner start tapering way too soon. Only taper early on low miles if you are beaten up.

Depends of the course and what a BQ is worth to you. Lets say you have a 20% chance of a BQ if you go for it. Lets also say you have a 60% of blowing up and being miserable the last 10k of the race. The other 20% is allocated to a fading at the end and missing your goal. I really do not know your odds, but to some people the above odds would be well worth a shot at a BQ - Other not so much. You overall mileage makes you a little bit of a longer shot to me - in the 0-30% range. Any time you go for it, there is a good chance of shuffling in.