Is sub 3 possible for me in 9 weeks? 16 weeks actually (Read 616 times)

    Is the goal for September still sub-3? Not to be Debbie Downer but I'm not seeing it at all at this point.

     

    You don't have the mileage, or the quality, or the race results at shorter distances to support sub-3. And trying to build mileage AND quality to a level you haven't been at in over a year in the last few weeks before a marathon is fraught with danger. Count me as another fan of the fast finish long run, but they can't work miracles and they are much more effective the bigger the base you have.

     

    In my own personal running history, the best predictor of marathon success has been average weekly mileage over the preceding 6 months. The 2nd best predictor has been average weekly mileage over the preceding 2 years. Things like long runs, tempos, hill workouts, etc, all matter but not nearly as much as #1 and #2.

     

    At any distance up to half marathon, I can run pretty close to PR levels off of 60 mpw as long as I'm getting good quality long runs, tempos, hills and a few intervals. At the marathon, I need to be running 70+ to have a chance.

     

    I agree with JKurtz--your easy run pace is fine, there just isn't enough volume to run a sub-3 unless you are supremely talented, which your prior race results do not indicate.

     

    You have surprised me before--I did not see 3:09 coming. But your training leading up to that was still a lot better than where you are at now, in terms of monthly mileage.

    Runners run.

      Thank you for the input.

       

      Julia1971

      I totally agree that my mileage is not enough.

       

      JKurtz1

      Tuesday is my interval day. I run various interval, such as 6 x 400m @ 5:30,  6 x 0.5mi @ 6:00. Today, I run 13 miles with 4 x 1mi @ 6:20.

      From last week, I added Friday tempo/threshold workout, 2 x 2 mi @ 6:40.

       

      mikeymike

      Yes, I am still thinking about sub-3. But I can see my mileage is short. I will see my confidence and decide on the week of the race. I feel my legs are stronger and long run relatively easier than my last marathon preparation. However, as you said, I had some mileage last time, but not this time.

      5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - avg 6:10/mi for 4mi (29/08/14), FM - 3:03 (13/09/14)


      Interval Junkie --Nobby

        I agree with JKurtz--your easy run pace is fine . . .

         

        As do I, now that David has uploaded the rest of his workouts.

        2014 Goals:  sub-3 Marathon 

        Current Status 08/28: Slowly working back up from a pelvic stress fracture.  4mil distance PR w00t!

          As the owner of a 3:03, 3:04, 3:07, 3:08, 3:09, a bunch of 3:1X and zero sub 3 marathons I've gotta say sub 3 is gonna be a long shit for you if you only ran 3:09 on better training. Each step requires better training and luck with conditions.

           

          Think about your strategy to salvage a good run if the pace is not sustainable. I'm not talking about racing that  goal pace like a 20 mile race effort then deciding at 20 miles it's not gonna work out. Think about how you honestly need to feel at 7 and 13 miles. If it feels like real work and not just a momentary rough patch what are you going to do? What's your plan?

            Damn autocorrect!

              xhristopher

              I will take your suggestion to check at 7 and 13.

               

              I have a 23-mile run assignment this Sunday. Would you guys think it is a good idea to run 20 miles with last 10 miles @ 6:50? If so, what pace shall I run at in the first 10 miles? I think it would be quite tough for me.

              5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - avg 6:10/mi for 4mi (29/08/14), FM - 3:03 (13/09/14)

                xhristopher

                I will take your suggestion to check at 7 and 13.

                 

                I have a 23-mile run assignment this Sunday. Would you guys think it is a good idea to run 20 miles with last 10 miles @ 6:50? If so, what pace shall I run at in the first 10 miles? I think it would be quite tough for me.

                 

                First time trying this, last 10 at goal MP is too much. An alternative is something like 3 x 2 miles at goal MP with 1 mile back at easy pace in between. This way, you get a little break and then after you recover, you have to find that pace again.  See how that feels and how you recover. Do this in the later half of workout. If all goes well, next time you have a long run, you can try 3 x 3mi, the next time 2 x 4.

                 

                I just want to add that I've done the above types of workouts before, as prescribed by my coach, but the pace I run is not goal MP. In fact, the pace was actually about 10s/mile slower than what I ended up running in the marathon. The point is you should  be trying to aim for a pace that you feel is something you could manage in the marathon. You can't force the issue -- meaning if you're huffing and puffing like a 10k race, you're going too fast. That's why I'd typically settle in at  a slightly slower pace than I'd race at.

                  David - I don't like sunshine blown up my ass so I won't do it to you.  You have very little chance of running sub-3 at this race.  That 1:28 1/2Mar in May isn't enough with the lack of mileage you've put in since then.   A 23 mile long run won't make up for the lack of base work.   Are you following a plan?  If you are just do what the plan calls for.  If you're just winging your training I'd suggest doing 20 miles at comfortably hard pace that you could hold the entire 20miles.  No speeding up or slowing down - just be a meteronome.  Maybe 7:30 pace?   I hope you prove me wrong at the race.  Best of luck to you.

                    A couple years back I made a foolish attempt at sub 3 when I was nowhere near in shape or otherwise ready to do so. I'm not saying that is or is not the case for you. I'm mentioning it because it ended up being the most miserable 3:10 you'd ever want to run, just an absolute grind from about 5 miles on. Had I approached it much more sensibly it probably could've been a lot more enjoyable and satisfying 3:07 or so. It's not a mistake I care to make again, believe me. It was NOT a fun experience. Choose your goal carefully.

                    I changed this, and you noticed. Hurray for us!

                      xhristopher

                      I will take your suggestion to check at 7 and 13.

                       

                      I have a 23-mile run assignment this Sunday. Would you guys think it is a good idea to run 20 miles with last 10 miles @ 6:50? If so, what pace shall I run at in the first 10 miles? I think it would be quite tough for me.

                       

                      Yeah, don't try this.  With the base you have, this would take you weeks to recover from even if you could complete it.   At this point, you have to start thinking - being undertrained and having a bigger upside is better than being overtrained.  I would agree with what BoilerTom on how to attack the long run.

                       

                      As for the interval work, there just isn't enough volume/speed to indicate a a sub 3.  6x400 is only 1.5 miles of work.  When you say you are running 13 miles with 4x1 at 6:20,  Is that a continuous run or are you taking standing rests in between?

                        Thanks guys. I will try BoilerTom90's method for this week long run.

                         

                        kencamet

                        yes, I am following a personalized plan. It is a 3:05 plan. According to the coach, that was my fitness to start with 16 weeks ago. He said I should be able to run 3:05 right then based on my half marathon result, however, I had a big doubt.  Also, I missed about two week workout due to some minor injury. and the first few weeks the weekly mileages were quite low. I do run about 10-20s/mi faster in almost every run than the assignments. I don't know if that makes any different.

                         

                        Greg C

                        Thanks for sharing your experience. I haven't made a decision to run a sub-3 or not. I will certainly let you guys know my decision.

                         

                        JKurtz1

                        Tuesday it was 13 miles with 4 x 1 miles. The plan was 6:20/mi. But runkeeper went wrong at the first interval. I ended with running 1.3 miles @ 6:00, then jogged about 2 minutes and run another mile @ 6:07. Then I ran 30 minutes at 8:02, 7:44, 7:44, 8:16 for 4 miles. Then I ran the last two intervals at 6:15 and 6:03 with 1:30 jogging in between.

                         

                        I think I got the speed, but as all you guys pointed out, my endurance is lacking.

                         

                        I tried comparing the best 23-mile long run last year and my last 23-mile long run. Interestingly the pace was almost the same,  7:37/mile. The difference is in the first one I pushed quite a lot. This time I didn't push that much as I can recall.

                         

                        One thing I don't understand is that those maintenance run during the week, such as 5 or 6 miles at 7:40, is not that easy I would expect. It is not hard but  certainly it is not a restoring energy feeling. I would have thought if I could run 23 miles at 7:37 with a comfortable feeling, it should be much easier to run 5 miles at 7:40, but it is not. What does it tell?

                        5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - avg 6:10/mi for 4mi (29/08/14), FM - 3:03 (13/09/14)

                          What does it tell?

                           

                          That you're tired from the 23 miler. As you should be.

                          Runners run.

                            It was completely miserable experience today. I couldn't run at MP. I tried at mile 17, but it was quite discouraging that Runkeeper reported my pace was 7:29 when I pushed and tried to running faster. I was tired and hungry. It was relatively hot. My legs and hips were tired. My abs muscles were weak. My right feet hurt. and I had side stitch and painful. I was defeated. I decided to end at 20 miles.

                             

                            5k - 20:56 (09/12), 7k - 28:40 (11/12), 10k trial - 43:08  (03/13), 42:05 (05/13), FM - 3:09:28 (05/13), HM - 1:28:20 (05/14), Failed 10K trial - avg 6:10/mi for 4mi (29/08/14), FM - 3:03 (13/09/14)

                              when you say MP, is that goal MP or your current fitness level? If your fitness is not near sub 3, then I would fully expect trying to run at sub 6:52 pace after 17miles to be very difficult if not impossible.

                               

                              It was completely miserable experience today. I couldn't run at MP. I tried at mile 17, but it was quite discouraging that Runkeeper reported my pace was 7:29 when I pushed and tried to running faster. I was tired and hungry. It was relatively hot. My legs and hips were tired. My abs muscles were weak. My right feet hurt. and I had side stitch and painful. I was defeated. I decided to end at 20 miles.

                               

                                I can't imagine running 17 miles at a pace within 1 minute per mile of my goal marathon pace and then trying to pick it up to my goal marathon pace when I was in the middle of a full training load.

                                 

                                When I was training for my full marathon I was supposed to run my long run at 45 seconds slower than marathon pace and I ended up walking on mile 17.

                                 

                                My goal pace was 8:45, not 6:50 though.

                                Age: 46 Weight: 205 Height: 6'2" (Goal weight 195)

                                Current PR's:  Mara 3:48:09; HM 1:43:26; 10K 43:59; 5K 21:27