picking marathon pace (Read 966 times)

Ok... I am sure this has been asked 100 million times. Basically I am trying to figure out what my marathon pace should be. My ultimate goal is to not crash and burn. This will be my first marathon (cleveland) may 18. I ran the youngstown half (my 4rth) which is a very hilly course and ran a pr at 1:48:-- chip time but it was really somewhere around 1:47:20 by my watch. Chip time was gun to finish.. my watch was starting line to finish line.. So assuming a flatter course... 1:45:00 wouldn't have been out of the question. I was well trained for that race. My training log is there from the first of the year when I changed over to this site. So my goal is to finish and run strong. My secondary goal is to break 4 hours. Based on my 1/2 pr McMillian predict 3:47:-- and off my 15k pr it predicts about 3:32:-- if I use a 1:45:00 half that is predicted to 3:41:00 All that being said it points to sub 4 hours is possible if I am trained well. I am feeling very strong this week and am seriously considering going out at a pace that would make it possible for me to break 4 hours. I know well trained involvesy logging more miles than I am. Perhaps involves some speed work which I am generally neglecting to build the endurance I need. The question becomes do I go out with the 3:50 pace group or the 4 hour pace group... or do I chuck it and just run the 4:10- 4:15... I am pretty sure I can do... The reason I think I will tag on with a pace group is because I am pretty good at running 10's and 8's but I haven't mastered 8:45 or 9's... Ok so folks who have some experience with this can perhaps chime in on how realistic this is... and perhaps offer some advice... I have been running regularly since june 2006. I did mostly 25 miles a week through 2007. At the end of 2007 I built up to 30+. Thanks...

I think a sub 4 is very doable, if you are tactically conservative. The marathon is more than 2 half marathons... Whoever said that the first half of a marathon was 20 miles and the second half was 6.2 miles, was speaking from experience. Since you don't have a huge base, I would find a pace within the first 10k that feels comfortable and then slow-it-down a notch. You should feel at the 1/2 way point that you could go a little faster, but don't give in. Once you hit the 20-21 mile and you still feel like there is gas in the tank, go for it.Good luck!

I think you're in good shape to break 4 hours. In fact, if I had to guess, I'll bet you come close to - or manage to - break 3:50. But you never know until you actually run your first; the calculators are all pretty meaningless until you experience it for yourself. And any number of variables that you can't control could mean success or failure in going sub-4:00 - the weather (especially heat or humidity), the course, your body, or just how you feel that day. The marathon is always a crapshoot to some extent. If the running gods are smiling on that day, I think sub-4:00 will be easy. You've still got a good 2-3 weeks until you have to taper. I'd put in some serious mileage if I were you. All or most of it slow and easy. One thing you might consider, however, is not focusing so much on the specific goal. It's your first, and I personally don't think most people should even bother with a time goal. But more importantly, I think its usually counter-productive. My worst marathon was the first one that had a specific time goal (sub-4:00 in fact). Because I was so focused, I didn't listen to my body, didn't adjust to changes in conditions, just forced myself to stay on an arbitrary pace. And obsessed over the stupid pace groups. The result was almost a 5:00 marathon when the calculators told me I could do 3:45. You should have seen me: I even had one of the dorky pace/split bands on my wrist. I was checking every mile, counting how many seconds I was ahead or behind. It was miserably funny. Not funny at the time, though. When I fell apart I had to watch the 4:00 group fade off into the distance, and just about cried. If I were you I'd line up with the 4:00 pace group but make a point of not worrying about them much. Or even paying much attention to your watch. I'd run comfortably hard, within yourself but still pushing. Allow yourself to move ahead of the pace group if that's what feels right or drop back if that's what feels right. My marathon PR was nearly effortless because I did this. Just ran as hard as I comfortably could and varied my pace when it felt right. It seemed to work much better than obsessing over exact pace each mile. Just my two cents. Above all else, have fun. You only get one first.

I think you're in good shape to break 4 hours. In fact, if I had to guess, I'll bet you come close to - or manage to - break 3:50. But you never know until you actually run your first; the calculators are all pretty meaningless until you experience it for yourself. And any number of variables that you can't control could mean success or failure in going sub-4:00 - the weather (especially heat or humidity), the course, your body, or just how you feel that day. The marathon is always a crapshoot to some extent. If the running gods are smiling on that day, I think sub-4:00 will be easy. You've still got a good 2-3 weeks until you have to taper. I'd put in some serious mileage if I were you. All or most of it slow and easy. One thing you might consider, however, is not focusing so much on the specific goal. It's your first, and I personally don't think most people should even bother with a time goal. But more importantly, I think its usually counter-productive. My worst marathon was the first one that had a specific time goal (sub-4:00 in fact). Because I was so focused, I didn't listen to my body, didn't adjust to changes in conditions, just forced myself to stay on an arbitrary pace. And obsessed over the stupid pace groups. The result was almost a 5:00 marathon when the calculators told me I could do 3:45. You should have seen me: I even had one of the dorky pace/split bands on my wrist. I was checking every mile, counting how many seconds I was ahead or behind. It was miserably funny. Not funny at the time, though. When I fell apart I had to watch the 4:00 group fade off into the distance, and just about cried. If I were you I'd line up with the 4:00 pace group but make a point of not worrying about them much. Or even paying much attention to your watch. I'd run comfortably hard, within yourself but still pushing. Allow yourself to move ahead of the pace group if that's what feels right or drop back if that's what feels right. My marathon PR was nearly effortless because I did this. Just ran as hard as I comfortably could and varied my pace when it felt right. It seemed to work much better than obsessing over exact pace each mile. Just my two cents. Above all else, have fun. You only get one first.

As I get ready for marathon #2, this is one of the most helpful posts I've seen - thanks a ton.

Make the first one a pleasant experience - TRY to be able to say at the end "Wow, I left a lot of time out there, I can run MUCH faster!" For your first marathon, people will ask how it was and won't care much about your time (4 hours is a great debut though!) I'd be more impressed and inspired if I were a non-runner by someone saying "I finished strong, I loved it, I can't wait to do another - and my time was 4 hours" than someone who finished in a faster time but was miserable at the end. My first was one of my smarter marathons - scared of the distance so I ran easy, slowed a little the last 10k but ran the whole way. The 2nd one was miserable - I ran a 4 second PR but walked a few miles towards the end and was in major pain.

Jim2: We'll just have to agree to disagree on some of that, although I think its actually mostly semantics. First, I actually do think most first-timers - unless they're experienced runners just running a new distance - should focus above all on one thing: making the marathon a fun, rewarding experience. My first was definitely not, and I didn't run a single step for years afterwards because of it. My second was a lot of fun (and 10 minutes faster, despite a decade passing) ... and because of that experience, I'm a runner today. A lot of folks run a miserable marathon and quit. I've even seen that happen to talented runners. In my opinion, that's the biggest pitfall to avoid. And once somebody has that good marathon experience, they're probably gonna be hooked. I'll run my 8th and 9th this month, and first ultra next month, and its almost all because I had one good experience. Having fun at your first just can't be over-rated as far as I'm concerned. And that doesn't mean it can't be fast or that you can't work hard - just that its the fun that gets priority. Plenty of time after that to worry about the details. As for the "comfortably hard" thing, in hindsight I probably should have worded that differently, since I know that's a popular description for tempo run pace. I even use it both ways myself. At marathon distance, it means something specific to me: sort of a cruising speed. Actually not a speed at all - its a certain effort, a gear or something, that feels like I'm working, but I know I can go at least 20 miles at that effort. I actually have a specific time in mind, for me: it's within a few seconds of 8:00-8:15, give or take. In my experience - and marathoning I think is always a truly personal experience, so all advice has to be compared to your own experience - running at that "comfortably hard" or "cruising speed" is more a feeling than a science. And the speed itself can vary even in one race ... which is part of why I don't think first-timers should pay attention to the clock much. It seems to me its a double-edged sword. You're absolutely right that it takes experience to figure out how to run by feel. I figure I'll have it mastered in 15-20 years or so. And that seems to suggest that a newbie should pay close attention to each split. But the problem is that since they don't have that experience, they also don't know when NOT to worry about the clock, when to modify their pace or change their goal time. I guess that's the main point I was trying to get at: the one sure way to Bonksville is to stick to an artificial pace when its not appropriate. Which is why a lot of folks struggle with pace groups. (Ironically, it might keep you from running faster, too. On a good day, maybe you ought to be running 15 secs per mile faster. Run by feel and you will; run by pace chart and you won't). In my best runs, my splits have sometimes varied quite a bit, depending on terrain and temperature and how I felt at that moment and what I'd just eaten or drank. But the effort has been near constant. What I was mainly trying to get the OP to avoid was the mindset of sticking to a pace no matter what. And to me, the best way to do that is just not have one. Obviously, anybody is going to have some rough idea of the pace they want, and I doubt anybody can avoid doing a little math in their head at the mile markers. It's the obsessive "Oh noes! I ran that mile 4 seconds too slow!" mindset that I think should be avoided, at least on your first one. I know this is almost running heresy to suggest, but I'm actually convinced a lot of people would run much faster at longer distances if they left their watches at home completely. Last year I was getting ready to try to break 4:00 and I was fully obsessed. Didn't have much fun at all. Was focused on pace and times and splits ... but at least I'd learned from disasters to allow my speed to vary throughout the race, I ran by feel (but with an eye on that clock!). And it worked. I was proud of my 3:47. But what was more interesting was the marathon I did 3 weeks later. On a much harder course. 2000+ feet of elevation change. With little or no training in between the races. Worse yet, I spent the week before the second race drinking beer and eating bad. I showed up at the starting line fully intending to enjoy the scenery and just run as I described as "within myself." As hard as I could comfortably run and maintain at long distance; an effort that felt like if it was just a bit faster, I couldn't hold it ... but I could hold it as it was for a long time. I was guessing it'd end up right around 4 hours. After all, a month before I'd been desperate to hit that mark. So I barely looked at the clock. Found some nice conversation. And was shocked to realize I ran a sub-7:00 at one point. During the day, depending on the wind and how I felt, my splits ranged as high as 9:00 minutes, too. But the effort was the same: that comfortable but hard feeling. The net result was an unexpected 7 minute PR, a fine time, and the realization that I could probably run a lot faster someday. ------------------------- Sorry to ramble. It's all Running Fu and its a little difficult to describe in words. In the end I've just come to believe that most of us rely on (and worry about) numbers and data and statistics far too much, and we might be better, faster, and happier running mostly by feel. And what I was trying mostly to get across to the OP was simpler: don't be me. Don't figure out some pace on a calculator, slap a pace chart on your wrist, and try to hit every mile at some certain time. Don't stick like glue to the pacers just because they're carrying a sign that has 4:00 on it. Use the force, Luke. Trust your training. Your Running Fu is stronger than you think.

The fact that your 15K PR predicts more than 10 minutes faster than your 1/2 Marathon PR tells me that for you at your current fitness level the longer the race the more inaccurate (too fast) the calculators will be. Also, your 1/2 is more recent and so therefor more telling of where you are right now. That being said I think something around 4 hours would be doable. If you like the idea of going with a pace group go for with the 4:00 group and lke others have said if you are feeling frisky enough to pick up the pace in the last 6 miles go for it. One word of caution though some pacers will go out faster than goal pace to try to bank time (this is not as smart and I don't know why a pacer would do it, but I have heard of it happening) and some will try to get right on pace from the start. If you can talk to the pace leader before the race either at the expo the day before or even right before the start of the race ask which he plans to do. If it is the go fast and bank time stategy let them go early and run your own race, you'll end up passing a bunch of people in that group in the last few miles.

I wouldn't use those predictors as anything more than a guide, especially considering that this is your first marathon. I ran my first and only marathon last fall and believe me, it's a whole different ballgame than the shorter races. I'd add in 10 minutes just for the inexperience factor. I think 4 hours is a reasonable goal, and agree with JakeKnight, your best bet is to run as many miles as you can and run them easy so you don't injure yourself. I also suggest being conservative early in the race. I think that will give you the best chance of breaking 4 hours as well as enjoying the race. I was thinking around 3:50-55 was possible for me, but when race day came they were calling for temps in the mid 70s and muggy by the time I would finish. So I backed off on my goal to sub 4 and went out easy. I ended up finishing 3:58 with just a 2 minute positive split, and finished strong. My HM times were on par with yours before the marathon. My weekly mileage for the 10 weeks before the race was in the high 40's, peaking at around 52. Hope that helps ..... Good luck.