I was just thinking about this today.  If you hit every goal you set for every race, then your goals are likely too soft, right?  And likewise, if you always miss, your goals are probably too tough.  I went through my logs, and out of 17 races in the past two years for which I had a distinct goal going in, I hit it 11 times (with one *just barely*: cleared by 2 seconds in a 10k) and missed 6 times (with 2 just barely: 16 seconds too slow in a half, and 5 seconds in an 8k).

What about you guys?  What do you think is a good hit/miss ratio that shows that you are setting appropriate race goals?

I don't see it as that simple. I run on a lot of courses I've never seen before, so a goal that is reasonable on one course may not be reasonable on another. I won't know until after the race whether my goal was reasonable or not. Weather plays a part and last minute reassessments may not be particularly accurate. Even something as simple as getting boxed in at the start because of congestion can make the difference between hitting a goal or not. Then you have this strange idea of A, B, and C goals. Goals also tend to be set at nice round numbers like 2:00:00 for a HM or 25:00 for a 5K or a BQ time for the marathon, not at what one thinks is their actual potential. As a result my goals are often a range with various provisos and I consider the goal met if I come anywhere within the range, e.g. my last 5K I went in unsure of my fitness for that distance. My "goal" was 27:30 (nice round number), but realized I could tie up not being used to racing that fast or I could have regained more of my lost speed than I realized. Hence I could have run as slow as 28:00 or as fast as 26:30. I ran 26:50. Now did I reach my goal or not? I ran much faster than 27:30, but short of 26:30.

I do use "A", "B" and "C" goals. Honestly I think I've hit all of my "C" goals. I probably hit my "B" goals 50% of the time. I hit my "A" goals probably 10% of the time. I set my "A" goal pretty high, and even my "B" goal. "C" is basically what I expect to run.

I was pretty confident going in to my first marathon. I set goals of 3:50, 3:55 and 4:00 for my A, B and C goals respectively. Boy, I barely made that C goal because I didn't realize the course had so many rolling hills and the weather wouldn't be very friendly. It also didn't help that I was barely in marathon shape.

I hit my A goals maybe once or twice a year... but I usually set that pretty high, so it requires everything to go right, as well as a minor miracle.  My B goals are sort of fluid, but I guess I probably make those 75% of the time... and my C goal is usually a "I will want to die if I don't beat this" time, so unless something goes terribly, horribly wrong, I always manage that.

For marathons, I have three goals. One of them is the McMillan prediction of my finish time, based on what I've done in my training leading to the race. I usually get that one. Another goal is some dream goal of mine, one that is usually very unlikely, but that I've hit on a few occasions and completely surprised myself. It's nice to dream... The third one is to BQ, no matter what the finish time is. So far I've been lucky and I've always at least gotten that. For that one, I credit the qualifying standard for my AG when I started running, and also the fact that I was already in not bad a shape, even as a non-runner.

For shorter distances, I use McMillan once again and I'm usually pretty close to what he predicts, unless there is some uncontrollable element during the race that affects the outcome negatively. On a few occasions, it wasn't my day to race, and I completely lost my nerves and drive to push and I DNFed. That's how big my fear of not hitting my goals is. It sucks to not have the courage to face the day, whatever it brings you.

 The third one is to BQ, no matter what the finish time is.

 

Hadn't thought about that.  In Boston last year, running a BQ was not my goal.  In fact, I had predicted it would take me more like 4 hours.  Instead, I ran 3:23 in what were nearly ideal conditions despite taking pictures at every mile and stopping to drink beer a couple of times.  My BQ time is 3:30 so I can still say I have run a BQ in all of my marathons.

What about you guys?  What do you think is a good hit/miss ratio that shows that you are setting appropriate race goals?

At the end of the race, it doesn't really matter what your goal was, other than demonstrating how accurate you are at predicting an outcome. Whether your goals are “too hard” or “too soft” is sort of beside the point – the goal doesn't determine how fast you go (except when it does – when you pace to some arbitrary goal).

What if you had the confidence to not have time goals? What if your goal was just to run as well as you could? What if your goal was, “to run fast and take chances”?

My opinion- time goals are stupid, usually arbitrary, and often self-fulfilling (and therefore self-limiting). Try giving yourself permission not to have a time goal, and just run your best race. Race often enough that you learn what race effort is, and have a goal to give race effort in every damn race.

This won’t work for everyone, and you have to have some faith in your training and yourself – but for races I put the watch away. No mid race data is going to change my pace, limit my pace or quicken my pace. In a race, you just race.

They don’t give you a badge for Sub-20 or Sub-3 or sub anything. There’s no club for a sub 5 mile. Even a BQ time is pretty arbitrary – there’s nothing inherently special about it (except entry into a pretty cool race).

In a different forum I do actually post time goals – because that’s what we do I guess – but I sure don’t race for them. Really they just say “I think I’m in X shape”, and whether I am or I’m not, the race determines I guess.

All that to say – I don’t think there’s such a thing as “appropriate” time goals. Just run.

What do you think is a good hit/miss ratio that shows that you are setting appropriate race goals?

My race goals vary from event to event and while a finish time or a pace per mile may be at play going into a race, that days goal is not the beginning or the end, it is simply the next step.

Race goals whether based on finish time, pace or placing are highly individualistic and therefore extremely difficult to judge.  For me the big picture is my guide, the big picture being where I am at that particular point in my running, not where I was or someday hope to be.

I could not in a million years answer the question quoted above because there is something about every race I could pitch a fit about.  I would be better served telling you how many events I felt satisfied about and that number is nowhere near 50%.  It is probably closer to 25%, or perhaps even lower who knows, I sure as hell do not.

I do know there have been occasions where I did not hit my A, B, C, D, E, FGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXY or Z goals.

If you are hitting your goals with great frequency, then keep racing and keep hitting them them bitches while the gettin's good.  Who cares if they are soft or not.

Regarding times I realized last spring that my goal of a sub-20:00 5k was a glass ceiling, and that was before I actually ran it.  So instead of becoming the goal, it simply became the next goal.  But I had to get to that point in my running on my own, and until you see that for yourself it may be a difficult concept to comprehend.

When is your next race and how high are you setting this goal?