Waltons ThreadLord
Rest day for me. I'm going to take the plunge and actually solicit advice on an internet forum. Be kind and don't be upset if I don't follow your advice (though know I will consider carefully what is offered).
As my training progresses and the marathon grows nearer, I'm wondering more about a goal time, or at least a target pace to start out with (allowing it to change as the race progresses). The Riegel formula suggests that a 4-hour marathon is equivalent to a 1:54:28 half. I've run a half in that time or better seven times, as per below. As you can see, though, most of my sub-1:55 times came on flat or mostly flat courses. Only two were more challenging than a flat course. Given NYC is not a runner-friendly course with some big bridges to cross and back-loaded with hills at the end, how aggressive is 4:00:00? I've run three marathons, but none in the past five years, so I have no real race experience other than knowing what I'm in for. If my primary goal is to avoid a death march at the end, what would be a more realistic/achievable goal pace that isn't pure sandbagging? A 4:10 would be a 1:59 half, which I've done a few more times on non-flat courses.
Crest Best Half Marathon
RunaPalooza
D&L Heritage Half
April Fools Half
Hallowed Half Cape May
E. Murray Todd Half Marathon*
Williamstown Run the Vineyard
*In 2022, I ran "the Todd" in 1:54:53, which almost qualifies for a 4-hour marathon.
5k 23:48.45 (3/22); 4M 31:26 (2/22); 5M 38:55 (11/23); 10k 49:24 (10/22); 10M 1:29:33 (2/24); Half 1:48:32 (10/22); Marathon 4:29:58 (11/23)Upcoming races: Running is Back 10k, 5/12; Greta's Run 5k, 5/19
5 miles. It started to pour about 10 minutes in, cleared up in about a half hour. So I got to run by high school and middle school kids waiting for their buses in very clinging soaked running clothes.
Fred, no clue about what's reasonable. I guess what I'd consider is how much will your race be impacted by lots of people? I feel like 4 something is the average finish time. You you may be stuck with the masses. Do you plan on racing a HM prior to NYC? I think that's really going to give you the best prediction.
5 miles. It started to pour about 10 minutes in, cleared up in about a half hour. So I got to run by high school and middle school kids waiting for their buses in very clinging soaked running clothes. Fred, no clue about what's reasonable. I guess what I'd consider is how much will your race be impacted by lots of people? I feel like 4 something is the average finish time. You you may be stuck with the masses. Do you plan on racing a HM prior to NYC? I think that's really going to give you the best prediction.
No, I'm not planning on racing a half between now and the marathon. Some of my times below are less than a year old, so I feel they're reliable.
Sorry you got caught in the rain.
Former Bad Ass
I would choose one with the most similar hill/flats combo than the NYCM. And at least 6 weeks out (you could do one 3-4 weeks out but I think if you really want to race it, 6 weeks out leaves you enough time to recover and hit 1-2 20 milers before tapering).
Damaris
a. Clueless, even about my own running.
b. How physical are your training runs and long runs in comparison to the marathon course?
short pool mix, still have right ham and stringy thing irritation… likely wait till till Saturday, my next off work day
Are we there, yet?
Unless you're running 60-70 mpw the Reigel formula is going to be extremely optimistic. I don't have a link, but there are some calculators that take into account weekly mileage to massage the formula that would be a little more reasonable in their estimates. As NYC is known to be a challenging course with the bridges and late hills in Central Park, I'd be very conservative and target something in the 4:15-4:20 range as a race goal. That should NOT affect your training paces. Those should still be based on a recent good race time, preferably a 5K or 10K race.
2024 Races:
03/09 - Livingston Oval Ultra 6-Hour, 22.88 miles
05/11 - D3 50K 05/25 - What the Duck 12-Hour
06/17 - 6 Days in the Dome 12-Hour.
a. Clueless, even about my own running. b. How physical are your training runs and long runs in comparison to the marathon course? short pool mix, still have right ham and stringy thing irritation… likely wait till till Saturday, my next off work day
I'm mixing in hills during some of my easy and long runs to prepare for the hills in the race.
wcrunner - what I never know how to figure is my "weekly mileage." None of the tools I've seen specify a time frame. I'll be breaking 60 miles a few times in the weeks leading up to the marathon, but my average for the previous 3 months is lower (and even lower if going to 6 months). Good point about keeping the training paces while adjusting the goal.
There is a Slate calculator, that I used that incorporates up to 2 races with effort level and I think average miles. It was really close for me. Maybe there is a link on the sticky thread?
Oh hey. I ran 9 miles today, which is more than I usually do the day after a workout, but if I'm running that 10k on Saturday I need to front-load my mileage a little this week. It was predictably sluggish. What did get my heart rate elevated however was nearly getting hit by a car. I was running across a street, and had the walk signal. I had my eye on a car I'd be crossing in front of, who was in the right turn lane, but did not appear likely to actually make any kind of stop at that red light before turning. Sure enough he did not, and I slowed up a little. But that took my attention away from the fact that an oncoming car making a left turn in front of me was not slowing down at all. He just barreled through the intersection and literally missed me by about a foot. And only because I stopped and backtracked just barely in time. JHFC.
Dave
4 miles. Our heat wave is almost over.
Fred--no real advice. I'm a little slower than you, with my best marathon 4:13 at CIM. A flat HM a few weeks prior was something like 1:58:30. For the marathon, my pace goal was not to run faster than 9:30s in the first half. Which worked perfectly and I basically had an even split, passing lots of people in the final miles. If I went by feel, I would have started too fast and blown up. It was a helpful mindset for me, to "not run faster than X" vs "Must run X".
delicate flower
I think 11:00 AM is a great time for some office ice cream cake.
Also, I ran 5 easy miles on the treadmill that were achy but tolerable. Now my foot hurts. Hopefully it'll feel better tomorrow.
<3
Yes that is the one I was going to recommend. It was updated from the original, and is now on 538.com.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/marathon-calculator/
It's probably the most reasonable one out there, particularly for intermediate-type marathoners. Most of the popular ones (e.g. McMillan) are very optimistic, unless you're an experienced marathoner running ~70mpw.
For weekly mileage, I'd use what you're running on average during the training cycle, not just the handful of peak weeks. And I'd use your most recent races only. Interestingly, the calculator lets you pick the course difficulty of your predictor races, but not of your actual goal marathon. So I'm not sure what it assumes. But if you want to be conservative - assume flat. Then adjust for NYCM with the race time converter on www.FindMyMarathon.com. You can plug in a time on any marathon, and it converts that time to any other. You can take in what the calculator gives you, plug that into a flat marathon e.g. Chicago, and have it convert to NYCM. It takes into account the course profile as well as the typical weather. Of course weather is anything but typical, so that part is a crapshoot.
What did get my heart rate elevated however was nearly getting hit by a car. I was running across a street, and had the walk signal. I had my eye on a car I'd be crossing in front of, who was in the right turn lane, but did not appear likely to actually make any kind of stop at that red light before turning. Sure enough he did not, and I slowed up a little. But that took my attention away from the fact that an oncoming car making a left turn in front of me was not slowing down at all. He just barreled through the intersection and literally missed me by about a foot. And only because I stopped and backtracked just barely in time. JHFC.
Ugh this is the worst. Glad you are still quick enough to get out of the way.
During my usual morning runs, I regularly go past 4 different little memorials set up by the road for people hit and killed as pedestrians. In one case, it was enough to get that stoplight changed so that no one has green, just walk signals for ~10 sec (just enough time for me to run almost all the way across the 7 lanes or whatever).
5K Specialist
Still too busy moving furniture to run.
Personal Bests:
800M - 2:38 (5/28/13) | 1 Mile -5:54 (5/28/13) | 3K - 11:55 (12/29/12) | 2M - 13:00 (12/1/12) | 5K - 20:00 (4/12/13) | 13.1M - 1:37:24 (2/3/13)
More anecdotally and gut feel - I don't think 1:54 converts to 4:00. When I ran a 1:48 half, my marathon 2 months later was 4:06. The marathon was warmer and hillier than the half, but you're also looking to turn a flat 1:48 into a hillier 4:00. So I think it's a bit aggressive, particularly considering you have minimal experience with the distance. A tuneup half 4-8 weeks out from the race would be the best predictor. With all the HMs you run - any reason you don't plan to include one during your marathon cycle? Is it because the Hansons plan doesn't include one?
I don't think it would hurt you to consider 4:00 goal when selecting your training paces. I know Hansons gives you a lot of MP miles, so you'll see how that feels. Although it's very difficult to convert that to how the marathon will feel at that pace - for me there is a correlation, but only based on having done it a bunch of times. Note that during your MP workouts, you will never actually feel like you'll be able to hold it for 26.2.