Inconceivable.
My 19-miler scheduled for 02/08/14 will be the defining "race" of my marathon training. If I can finish it sub-1:53:00 (I ran my injurious 19-miler on 02/23/13 in 1:57:46), then --- according to the RA race predictor calculator --- I'll have sub-2:40:00 marathon potential.
I have a 20 mile race that weekend (which is three weeks before Shamrock).
Inconceivable. My 19-miler scheduled for 02/08/14 will be the defining "race" of my marathon training. If I can finish it sub-1:53:00 (I ran my injurious 19-miler on 02/23/13 in 1:57:46), then --- according to the RA race predictor calculator --- I'll have sub-2:40:00 marathon potential.
You DEFINITELY don't want to do a 50k the week after that. That run in my opinion will be harder for you than say running a 50k at a 7:30 per mile effort.
As a matter of semantics, I would like to argue that it is not a predictor so much as it is an equivalent performance. That is to say your 19 mile race of sub-1:53 is equal to a 26.2 mile race of sub-2:40. Just understand that you'd be doing two big races three weeks apart if you go that route.
February 8 would be 4 weeks out from the marathon (I'm of course making a point to avoid the folly of again conducting my toughest tempo just 2 weeks before the LPRM). Now, I do admit that it's a great unknown as to how a strenuous 19-mile run would influence a 26.2-mile a month later. It might be better to view it as the conclusion of a steady state series that will hopefully demonstrate solid improvement --- not necessarily as far as speed goes, but my ability to maintain a certain pace over longer and longer distances. Here's a table that uses the RA race predictor calculator that shows how incrementally longer steady states run at a narrowly sub-6:00/mi average paces would reflect better and better marathon equivalencies:
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Phil, are you doing a big taper, or not logging? Or sick?
It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.
Phil told me his foot was bothering him a bit after last week's trail running. But I think he's still running a 50K this weekend - good luck at the 50K, Phil!
Sweet, pre-race dinner is at the Duck this year.
Drop-in Pre-Race Dinner: Ruddy Duck Seafood and Alehouse, next to St. George Island Inn and Suites, St. George Island; see www.RuddyDuckBrewery.com
Drop into the Ruddy Duck on Saturday evening to carbo-load and mingle with other marathoners. Chef Lisa Kelley and her staff will be serving some fine complex carb dishes. Appetizer specials might include hummus with matchstick vegetable soup, or house-made black bean soup with Vermont cheddar cheese. For dinner, you might try asparagus and wild mushroom risotto; whole wheat penne pasta with concasse of tomato, fresh basil and hand-grated parmesan cheese; or tortellini tossed in pesto, artichokes, olives and asparagus. Top off your meal with fresh fruit compote over french vanilla ice-cream or a slice of apple- oatmeal pie. Our congenial CBRC hosts, Perry and Crystal Rapp, will be there to welcome you and share local knowledge.
(Directions to drop-in dinner will be posted later)
FYI for Joe:
Liza Recto LPRM gives you the most marathon bang for your buck. But we're closed.
59 minutes ago · Like · 2
I think Joe has said he's already signed up.
Joe indicated this morning that he's very uncertain about the marathon. So did he simply reserve himself a spot even though he likely might not be running?
I registered a long time ago. I even almost registered a second time because I had forgotten how long ago I had originally registered. I'm definitely signed up for it. I just am doubtful I should run it.
Now I remember all too well that a spot in the race last year went to waste because of me. However, I was 100% sure that I would be running the 2013 LPRM up until 15 days before the race --- though that percentage of likelihood plummeted in the final 2 weeks before March 10, 2013 (even though there was one heartbreaking glimmer of hope ... before I finally had to face the truth).
Stats for predicted times this year @ LPRM2014
That last row includes Joe & myself.
I'm 99% certain I will not run the race. My achilles is improving rapidly considering it has only been two weeks. That said, I've had to reduce my running load enough that I don't think my body will be adequately prepared. A day or two ago I felt ready to run a marathon in terms of how rested I was. I did a small run of just three miles one day and felt like a million bucks, except for the achilles.