With the talk of the Western States movie around here and irunfar's interviews with the leading contenders I thought it might be time to start a who's running / who's going to win thread.

So, who out there is running this thing?

Who do people think are the favorites?

I think its going to come down to Roes and Jornet with the more experienced Roes winning the whole thing. 

In talking with a friend who was training out there Jun 1-10, he said that he didn't know how they would hold the race due to the snow.

 

I wonder, too. Another course modification? Moreso that last year's course?

Somewhere I read they have a Snow Route B (Last year being A).

My pick this year is Killian

followed by Roes, Mackey, Koerner

There was a Tahoe Rim training run last weekend and some of the higher sections were impassible. Others were merely treacherous.

If memory serves, some people attributed the fast times last year  to the modified course, I wonder if the same will be true this year.

I'm going with "Jez Bragg" just because his name is Jez Bragg.

This came from the WS folks:

Lots of talk about the snow:

Snow situation. Currently most of the first 30 miles of the course is still covered by snow. It is very likely that we will use a "snow course" route. The exact route is yet to be determined as the conditions are very dynamic.

Crew access may be limited or eliminated at Robinson Flat, Duncan Canyon and Dusty Corners.

A final decision will be announced about five days prior to the race. There was additional snowfall above 6000 feet during much of the month of May, and the current snow content at Squaw Valley is twice what it was at this point last year.

Even with the snow course, you can expect most of the first 20 miles of the course to be covered with snow. The snow will slow you down. Most runners find it reasonably easy to run in snow on a flat surface, but very little of the snow-covered part of the course is flat. On the downhill sections, a glissading technique is fairly easy to master, landing on your heels leaning back a bit more than normal. On the uphill sections most will be walking; so this, too, presents little difficulty. Where things get tricky is running on a contour, where the trail traverses a hillside and there is a noticeable slope from right to left. It is often difficult to maintain your balance on a slippery surface here, where the snow is chopped up from the runners ahead of you or if it is icy on the surface from a sub-freezing night, which is fairly likely at the highest elevations.

Shoes with an aggressive outer tread will help keep you upright. Most trail shoes have this feature. Nonetheless, you might expect to do a bit of slipping and sliding and even to lose your feet occasionally.

Be careful to avoid the snow immediately next to trees. Trees conduct heat into the ground and often melt the snow below the surface. If you step there, you might break through the surface and sink all the way up to your hip (this is called 'post-holing') -- a most unpleasant experience.

Please note that the use of crampons, sheet metal screws, or removable traction devices such as YakTrax or Kahtoola, is strictly prohibited.

It is very likely that the snow will cause all runners to lose a bit of time, maybe by as much as 60 minutes. Our advice is to relax, be conservative, and don't be overly concerned about pacing early in the day. You'll have plenty of time later to worry about pacing and split times. A conservative approach through the snow will save your energy for a strong second half. Race veterans often say that the race starts at Foresthill. Heed their advice!

Our plan at this time is to post the course decision on the WS website on Monday, June 20, but with rapidly changing conditions we may not know the final course until the Friday briefing on June 24.

Crew access may be limited or eliminated at Robinson Flat, Duncan Canyon and Dusty Corners. The final decision will be announced at the Friday briefing.

The WS Trail Team has been intensely working on the trail through the high country for the past several weekends and will hit the trail again this Friday, Saturday and Sunday with possible trail work extending into next week. We would like nothing more than to see normal trail conditions, but we take what the mountain gives us. Please keep in mind that all the trail work is provided by volunteers.

Should be veeeeeeery interesting!  I think Roes will kill it again this year.

Crew access may be limited or eliminated at Robinson Flat, Duncan Canyon and Dusty Corners.

WHAT?!?!?!  How do they expect runners to manage a fully stocked aid station with volunteers and their drop bags?  Who is going to open their gel?  They want today's ultrarunner to be self-reliant for 30 miles?  What about the two car crewing system they have posted on their website?

Ridiculous.