2019 Sub 3 hour marathon thread (Read 616 times)


Elite Jogger

    Cal - A 1:29:48 half is still a very respectable time, in fact it’s 3 seconds faster than my Brighton Half time in February this year!  Ok, I was the 1:30 pacer at that race. 😜. There’s never much difference between your half and full pace, so I wouldn’t rule out Sub 3 just yet!

     

    DW - Wow that storm sounded like a scary experience....but you still showed up for training and that is dedication! You seem very well prepared for Indy. 👍

    5k - 17:53 (2019)   10k - 37:53 (2018)   Half - 1:23:18 (2019)   Full - 2:50:43 (2019)

    jayluf


      Cal - Congrats on the Half!

      DW - Good luck next weekend at Indy!

       

      Ran 1:21:53 at the Hamilton half yesterday, just outside Toronto. Good for a 32 second PR. Battled tough head winds miles 1.5 - 4 and then 10 - 11, but that effort balanced out with a nice downhill 5 - 7. Felt strong throughout and really dug down those last two miles. Surprised myself by pulling that off with relatively low volume last 6 weeks. Very happy with the effort and excited to build off this to CIM and Houston.

      darkwave


      Mother of Cats

        Thanks Mikkey - honestly, doing the tempo was less about dedication and more about a coping strategy, if that makes any sense.

         

        Jayluf - great job!  I'm wondering if the lower volume combined with running Berlin as an extended easy run set you up really well for that race (and for CIM).

         

        JTReeves - I think that fitness will come back once you are fully training again.  Interesting choices of Athens and Detroit.  I'm assuming that it's Athens Ohio and not Athens Greece since it's a spring marathon?

         

        And...I agree with you on this not being a bad forecast, and one I'd take over many others, including what Jmac raced in last weekend.  I would prefer slightly warmer though - at some point you start running into issues with water bottles freezing and not being able to take gels due to frozen hands.  Right now the overnight low is 23 degrees - much better than the 18 degrees that yesterday's forecast had!

         

        Calbears - I am loving the trash talking (that goes to Mikkey as well).  As for the half-marathon performance, I feel that you know your fitness and what a race means better than I do.  But....weren't you planning on doing this as a marathon pace run?  I thought that you weren't racing it.

         

        Nice week Madison - thanks for the good wishes!

        Re: CIM - I don't think I've ever met a person who has run it who characterized the course as "easy."  But plenty of people who haven't who would describe it that way Smile.  Of course the response to that is "well...no marathon is easy."  And I would respond that I have always told people that Chicago is as easy as a course gets.

        Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

         

        And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.

           JTReeves - I think that fitness will come back once you are fully training again.  Interesting choices of Athens and Detroit.  I'm assuming that it's Athens Ohio and not Athens Greece since it's a spring marathon?

           

          Yes DW, Athens Ohio, the same one I did this past spring. I loved the course and atmosphere, despite the pouring rain. Hoping I will get better luck with the weather and if so it will be a great place to go for a PR. Detroit is close to where I grew up and family so I wanted to run it at some point. Also it is very flat except for the bridge into Canada.

           

          Cal: I think with that half coming in at the end of a big week, plus the thousands of feet downhill drop of CIM (sorry had to go there ), that you still have a good chance for sub 3. And if you wear Vaporflys then you should easily get under 2:45.

           

          jayluf: Congrats on the half! That is a great time.

          5K: 17:55 (2017)    HM: 1:23:57 (2016)    FM: 2:52:16 (2018)

          Up next: Athens OH Marathon (April 19)

          Andres1045


            Andres - I remember your sub 3 in Boston - I think I passed you at that Newton hill and you looked really bad - that why I was surprised you still ran sub 3 Smile One day I might run Houston - too many people I know are talking about it Smile

             

            I think you have me confused with someone else. I don't recall struggling on the hills that year--I think my slowest split was like 7:09. And I don't think we were near each other at any point. I ran splits of 1:28:54/2:59:58. You ran 1:24:52/2:51:36. 2017 I really struggled on the hills (JTReeves past me there easily, even though he was having a less than great day himself). 2018 I felt fine on the hills for the pace I was doing at that point, yet bombed from 21 on.

             

            Also, I'm not ready to rule out a sub 3 for you. Even that half shows you still have some guts. To get an early 6:59 split at high effort and to come back and get your 1:29 is impressive.

             

            Re: CIM - I don't think I've ever met a person who has run it who characterized the course as "easy."  But plenty of people who haven't who would describe it that way Smile.  Of course the response to that is "well...no marathon is easy."  And I would respond that I have always told people that Chicago is as easy as a course gets.

            I've never met anyone who has run the course and walked away saying "damn, that course cost me some time!" And I don't think easy and fast are always the same. Chicago, or any flat course can be easy, just as a steady and gentle downhill course could be easy. Both require little strategy. CIM might not be super easy, albeit easier than, say Boston or New York, but to not acknowledge that it's fast is a bit silly (which you have acknowledged that).  My guess is that CIM is fast. Not lightning fast, and certainly not in the Revel category, but still fast. I'm the one saying JMac's not a lock for sub 2:40, despite him being in amazing shape, having trained on hills, and executing marathons as well as almost anyone on here (except for maybe Cal). I'm not just giving him a couple of minutes because of the course.

             

            Also, I think it's silly to suggest that unless you've run CIM, you're not allowed to opine on it. This place would get boring quick if that was the rule.

            Upcoming races: Jean Bouin 10k Nov 24 - Barcelona

                                        Houston Full January 2020

            JMac11


            Benevolent Leader

              While I do appreciate all the support given here, you guys are putting up some crazy times for me (and I agree with Madison and Andres here). I'd have to convert into HM+5 minutes which is not happening unless the shitty conditions I ran into last week cost me over a minute (I don't think they did) or the course is two minutes faster (also don't think it's true). Yes, I think I have a good chance at breaking 2:40, but it's not a mega lock when you're coming off of a 1:16 half. I also don't plan at going out faster than 1:19:30 at the half, so I'd have to really find some time on the back end. Going out faster than that just because people think I'm in good shape is a death wish.

               

              I'm also shocked at the Boston talk. Maybe it's just because the weather completely changed on us and it went from cloudy and 61 to sunny and 70 during the race, but I have never hated my life as much as I did after the Newton hills. I guess in cooler weather it's an easier course? I don't know.

               

              Andres - I'm so glad you're posting again! You always add such a great perspective here. You're right regarding CIM, although I wonder how much of that truly is weather that people flock so much. If Chicago had the same guaranteed weather as CIM, how would that change things? I know that I certainly would not be running CIM just for the course.

               

              Swim - another big week for you. You're looking in great shape for a PR

               

              DW - crazy pictures! Stuff like that makes you realize how your life can change in an instant. Also, good luck with the rest of the taper this week! I think it was good your legs felt like crap last week and now it's slowly coming together. That's a perfect taper imo.

               

              Cal - I got a good laugh out of your "10 minute PR guaranteed, no training required!" line. It's like a bad infomercial for CIM. You do know how to turn around HM into MP pretty easily. I think it's going to be a lot of work to get to sub 3, but still a lot of time left for training when you take 9 months of the year off!

               

              Me - I had an interesting week. First, it was my highest mileage ever at 81.5 miles on 6 days of work! I tried to get in a small Threshold session on Wednesday, but my legs really weren't ready. They also quickly demonstrated that when I strained my hamstring at the end of that session. Luckily, I had a rest day schedule, which helped it calm down enough with my heavy rolling work. It's now just bothersome, but in a niggle category. I was also able to get in a good 22 mile long run on Sunday with a progression down to MP+10%. I know that's more Pfitz than Daniels, but I really like that idea of working down to MP+10%. I can never start the run at MP+20%, it's too fast.

               

              More interestingly, I had calf cramps in my long run for the first time ever in my life. My lord they were painful! I don't know how anyone deals with that in a race, it felt like my leg was going to give out any second when landing.

               

              Hopefully these cramps were just a random occurrence and not a sign of things to come. Otherwise, I feel great and ready for these final 2 big weeks of training before the taper.

               

              ETA: I found my old Excel tool to format my week. Who owns the Strava RWOL app? If it's dead now, is it dead for good?

               

                10/28/2019  
              Day Miles Description
              Mon             7.0 Recovery
              Tue           11.0 EZ
              Wed           11.5 EZ + Strides
              Thu           19.0 8E + 3T(ish) + 7E
              Fri                -  
              Sat           11.0 EZ (no strides due to hamstring)
              Sun           22.0 Long Run progressing to MP+10%
              Total          81.5  

              5K: 16:51 (8/19)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:16:05 (10/19)  |  FM: 2:44:43 (4/19) 

               

              Next Race: California International Marathon (12/8/19)

              darkwave


              Mother of Cats

                 

                I've never met anyone who has run the course and walked away saying "damn, that course cost me some time!" And I don't think easy and fast are always the same. Chicago, or any flat course can be easy, just as a steady and gentle downhill course could be easy. Both require little strategy. CIM might not be super easy, albeit easier than, say Boston or New York, but to not acknowledge that it's fast is a bit silly (which you have acknowledged that).  My guess is that CIM is fast. Not lightning fast, and certainly not in the Revel category, but still fast. 

                 

                 

                 

                See...I know of at least three people who have run CIM (accomplished runners - marathon PRs of 2:27 to 3:20-ish) who have said that it was not the best course for them and that they would have run better that day on a flat course.  Those three have each said that they would not do it again.

                 

                I very much agree with the underlined statements.  And (as you noted) I am not arguing that it is not a fast course.  I chose it for my first swipe at sub-3 for a reason.  I think that if you have a goal time that is very important to you, you need to try CIM at least once.

                 

                But...it does not run at all the way it looks on the elevation chart.  And it is so fast due to a combination of a pretty fast course plus high chance of good weather plus great logistics plus great company on the course.  Not just because of the course.

                 

                 

                 

                 

                Also, I think it's silly to suggest that unless you've run CIM, you're not allowed to opine on it. This place would get boring quick if that was the rule.

                 

                Absolutely, you are allowed to have an opinion - I totally agree with the above.  I have an opinion on how fast London and Berlin are versus NYC, though I've never run any of them.    At the same time, those who have not run CIM are working off of a different information set from those who have.  And it's interesting to see how opinions of CIM seem to differ based on whether one has run it.

                Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                 

                And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.


                Elite Jogger

                  JMac - My prediction was more based on your previous marathons as you made NYC look very easy on both occasions and you ran a very impressive Boston this year. No pressure. 😁

                   

                  Interesting question about the difference between fast and easy. I think the more you run a course the easier it becomes because you know what to expect. I find London “easy” because it is simply a perfect marathon imo...the organisation is 10 out of 10 and the crowd support is unbelievable and I honestly think it gives me a 2min advantage compared to a low profile marathon.

                   

                  We don’t have “fast” marathons in the UK....the Edinburgh Marathon used to claim that it was the fastest with a massive 220ft elevation drop! Of course you have to train differently to take advantage of rolling downhill races.....and I’ll be changing my training for Boston and will be prepared. 👍

                   

                  JT - I think you’re right about Cal and Vaporflys. It could be the difference between a 3:03 and a 2:59. 😁. Should we start a crowdfunding appeal for him???  #CalneedsapairofVaporflys

                  5k - 17:53 (2019)   10k - 37:53 (2018)   Half - 1:23:18 (2019)   Full - 2:50:43 (2019)


                  Elite Jogger

                     

                     

                    Good luck to Steve at NYC. Getting the unicorn of weather days, absolutely perfect.

                     

                    He ran a 3:10 and I did say to him on Strava after his mega downhill half 2 weeks ago that he might struggle to “just” run a Sub 3 at NYC. I look at the person as well as the training when I make predictions. 👍

                    5k - 17:53 (2019)   10k - 37:53 (2018)   Half - 1:23:18 (2019)   Full - 2:50:43 (2019)

                    Nimmals


                       

                      He ran a 3:10 and I did say to him on Strava after his mega downhill half 2 weeks ago that he might struggle to “just” run a Sub 3 at NYC. I look at the person as well as the training when I make predictions. 👍

                       

                      So whats your prediction for me @ CIM I'm bored as a Pet Rock.

                      Mileage sucks. My foot was great for 3 weeks straight. So Idiotic me ran on grass and it flared up gain.

                      5 miles on grass was all it took. My 2ks are getting faster me  think it's because I'm on the track more often.

                      JMac11


                      Benevolent Leader

                        This is a fun game!

                         

                        Nimmals - 2:34

                        Madison - 2:36 (he's obviously more talented, but injury may have hurt. I hope he proves me wrong )

                        JMAC - 2:39

                        Swim - 2:42

                        Jayluf - 2:52

                        Cal - 3:01

                        5K: 16:51 (8/19)  |  10K: 34:49 (10/19)  |  HM: 1:16:05 (10/19)  |  FM: 2:44:43 (4/19) 

                         

                        Next Race: California International Marathon (12/8/19)


                        Elite Jogger

                           

                          So whats your prediction for me @ CIM I'm bored as a Pet Rock.

                          Mileage sucks. My foot was great for 3 weeks straight. So Idiotic me ran on grass and it flared up gain.

                          5 miles on grass was all it took. My 2ks are getting faster me  think it's because I'm on the track more often.

                           

                          2:37:33. But only if you find JMac at the start line and stick with him for the entire race. 👍

                          5k - 17:53 (2019)   10k - 37:53 (2018)   Half - 1:23:18 (2019)   Full - 2:50:43 (2019)


                          Yak-3 vs Spitfire

                             

                            2:37:33. But only if you find JMac at the start line and stick with him for the entire race. 👍

                             

                             Mikkey, stop playing - you need to predict for the whole list (see JMac's above)

                            weatherboy80


                              Cal: Nice looking HM!

                               

                              DW: Good luck next week in Indy!  Hope the weather behaves.  As for CIM, for me any course with hills (up or down) would likely be a challenge coming from a pancake flat location!

                               

                              Jayluf: Congrats on the PR!!

                               

                              Swim: Damn what a big week!  Looking really good right now.

                               

                              JMac: Very nice looking week especially considering a day off. I do think the fitness is there for CIM this cycle, but I also agree that you shouldn't go out much faster than what you quoted. I think as close to an even split is going to be your best bet.  I'd also agree with you on Boston not being that easy as I've never really been able to crank up the pace after about mile 21.  Maybe it's just the way I run all those downhill miles early? Those cramps you experienced on your LR sound similar to what I experienced last Boston as well.  Not entirely sure what the cause is!

                               

                              Me: Pretty happy overall with another solid training week, especially the long duration M paced LR on Saturday where I knocked out 12 at somewhere just below 6:10 pace, even dropping to just under 6 pace for the last mile.  Certainly helped that our temperature finally dropped to just below 70 for first time since I believe last spring!  Although the rest of the week was a slug fest as we finished out October with our hottest ever recorded Halloween on record Sad  I actually had to lay down after my 3 X 2 T workout on Wednesday as our tdp was about 160 at 6 AM (well before sunrise). The heat this summer/fall has been non-stop (save for a few days) and it is still going fairly strong for the first week of November.  So needless to say I'm ready for some actual fall like weather here!  Looks like some hope is on the horizon sometime mid next week, which is well past due since I'm already at 8 weeks and counting until race day!

                               

                              I finally signed up for my first tune up race of this cycle which will be 10K down in Vero Beach a week from Saturday.  Hoping to be able to debut or at least test out my Vaporfly Next % as well.  Goal will be to either race hard or simply hold threshold pace depending on the weather of course.  Other race of note will likely be a tune-up HM on December 1 which will be about a month before my goal race.  Plan will be to mostly train through that one as well with perhaps a slight mini-taper if the weather looks epic.


                              Monday: 11.2 EZ (AM), 5.21 EZ (PM)

                              Tuesday: 11.21 EZ + strides

                              Wednesday: 4E + 3 X 2T + 3E

                              Thursday: 11.2 EZ

                              Friday: 7.1 EZ + strides

                              Saturday: 4.5E + 12M + 3.6E

                              Sunday: 6.1 EZ

                               

                              Total: 84 miles

                              5K: 16:44 (11/18)  |  10K: 36:09 (2/18)  |  HM: 1:17:15 (12/18)  |  FM: 2:48:58 (1/18)

                              jayluf


                                This is a fun game!

                                 

                                Nimmals - 2:34

                                Madison - 2:36 (he's obviously more talented, but injury may have hurt. I hope he proves me wrong )

                                JMAC - 2:39

                                Swim - 2:42

                                Jayluf - 2:52

                                Cal - 3:01

                                 

                                If the dew point is over 55 I wouldn't predict anything under 3:20 for myself