Olympic Marathon (Read 1594 times)

That was really what my point was. Thanks Globule. The chances of the US breading an olympic marathon gold medalist are not as good as Korea winning the gold in basketball or Cuba winning the gold in ski jumping.

Why exactly is this? I'd say the chances, while not great, are certainly better than they've been in years. Did you SEE Ryan Hall in NYC, London, or Houston last year? I'd say a 62-63 minute 2nd half in Central Park is pretty impressive and puts him on the short list of guys with a shot at winning. Ritz has a lot of upside - let's not forget he's young and has only run 2 marathons - maybe '08 isn't his best shot but 2012 could be interesting. Some of the younger runners coming up are starting to look at the marathon a lot earlier in their careers, and in my humble opinion a lot of that is due to Ryan Shay. He was one of the first guys to go to the marathon early, pretty much right out of college.

Breaded Marathon Medalists are okay, but I prefer breaded chicken.

Boo-yah! I admire the optimistic outlook some of you have. I really do. But I have done this too many times. Meaning I have been psyched up about a US distance runner going into the olympics only to watch them get smoked. Hell, arguably the best distance runner this country ever produced didn't even medal (Pre) and what a shame that was. Honestly, I do not pay attention to the world of competitive running these days. I don't have the time or the desire. The last runner I followed was Khannouchi and that was like 10 years ago (although I think he's probably still a stud). I have not picked up a running magazine since probably 1997 and the last time I bought a book having anything to do with running was in 1996 and it was by George Sheehan. I will be pulling for the stars and stripes but won't be holding my breath.

My money is on Kipchirir.

Mine too.

Actually, the US women have not had the resurgence that the men have had in the past 5 years. Shalane has been demolishing American fields for the past year or so, but she's still an outside shot at a medal. After her, the talent is still fairly thin. Goucher's run last summer was amazing, but I'm disappointed that she's not in the marathon trials, as I think that's her best shot. I'm kind of shocked at the pessimism about US running, though if you stopped following the scene in the late 90s, I suppose I can see where it's coming from. I believe that the US is the strongest distance running country in the world after Ethiopia and Kenya. Granted, East African depth is extraordinary, but I don't think that we're grasping at straws to put so much faith in our current stable of runners. Hall is still somewhat untested, but I guarantee that nobody in the world is looking forward to running against him. The marathon future looks bright, with Rupp and McDougal on the horizon, both of whom are probably more talented than Meb. The real story, however, is Webb. He's the fastest miler in the world at the moment, and he has to be a favorite for GOLD in Beijing. Chances are he won't win it, but his chances are still better than anyone else's. As much crap as he gets for his tactics, he ran a perfect race in Osaka, he was just a bit past his peak. He seems to be on schedule for a later peak this year, so it should be interesting. It's Webb's race to lose. There's no way that Lagat has the legs to run a 3:46 mile these days. There's also a host of guys getting ready to make an assault on the 5k record, with Teg leading the charge. Sub-13 is not as common as it was a few years ago, so if those guys can get down there, we'll have a group of people that could have their noses in the thick of things during the bell lap. If you really want to see the change in US distance running, you need to get out to high school and college meets. Many of our best Olympic hopes would not have stood out among the current group of high school runners. The number of sub-9 two mile races across the country is remarkable. You can also watch Kenyan collegiate runners lose to American collegiate runners with increasing frequency.

I'm kind of shocked at the pessimism about US running, though if you stopped following the scene in the late 90s, I suppose I can see where it's coming from.

And you have a great point. There were some really fast collegiate runners in the late 90's (Michigan and Stanford, the usual suspects) that fell off the grid so to speak. I remember all the hype going into Atlanta in 1996 about Bob Kennedy. He was the first non-African to break 13 in the 5K and then placed 6th at the games. He later suffered injuries and never made his way back. Sad story because he had talent. I remember the hype following that really cold marathon trial which Bob Kampanien won, and I think Mark Coogan took third. At the time I remember thinking how damn fast all of them were, and they were fast. The problem was there were others that were faster. Then I remember the following debate about how unfair it is that many of our olympic athletes (especially distance runners) have to hold down jobs while training, whereas other athletes from other countries do not. If I remember correctly, I think Kampanien was in his medical residency at the time or something like that which I found absolutely incredible. The question was: if you took the American distance studs and just let them train and not have to worry about money, how would they do when the games rolled around? Is it any different today? I dont' know. It would be great if we could legitimately contend. There is no shortage of interest in distance running in the US. There also appears to be a lot of talent. So, where is the disconnect? Does our country not support the training of the athletes like it should? I am curious.

The support has gotten much better over the last 5-6 years, with groups like Hansons, Nike Distance Project, and the teams in California, and Minnesota.

That's good to know. I hope you're right PC. I remember reading an article in a running magazine a long time ago. A runner/writer went to an African country (Kenya I think) to live and train among that country's up and coming distance runners. To make a very article short, they generally ran at least 20 miles a day over two workouts and almost none were LSD or junk miles. But between runs, they did almost nothing but lie around, sip tea, eat, and sleep. They were not chilling out in a 4 star hotel or anything close, but the point is clear. They did nothing but run, recover, run, recover, etc. With that kind of volume and intensity, clearly the cream will rise to the top very quickly. Most cannot survive that training regimen for any meaningful amount of time. Of course, after I read that article I wondered how an American would do with that type of training model.

The 1500 is never a cakewalk, my point was just that, all things being equal, I'd still rather put my money on a 3:46 miler than a 3:49 miler, especially with the kind of finishing speed that Webb had in NY, Indianapolis, and Paris last year. In all fairness to Shalane, I think she might have 14:35 in her legs at this moment. She's much stronger than last year and she's had nobody to help her out. Basically she's been time trialling every time she toes the line.