Olympic Marathon (Read 1594 times)

As a Canadian, i must admit some degree of envy for the strength and depth of the U.S. running team, and even the access to information about Olympic trials etc. There is a new Canadian running magazine now, which is most welcome, and there has been some buzz on Canadian running boards about Tyler Alexander in the 400m, and Jon Brown and Steve Osaduik for the marathon. Unfortunately, Canada is requiring marathoners to reach not just the A Olympic qualifying standard, but the A plus, and it seems Osaduik may not achieve this. Brown is originally English born, though a Canadian citizen, and resident here since the early 1990's with two kids born in Canada, so fully eligible to compete for Canada. Because of the conditions the finishing order MAY be a bit of a lottery, but if I were betting I would expect the temp/humidity/pollution to slow the entire field about equally, so the finishing order should not be too weird. As to the original question, I suppose logic would dictate the finishing order of the American men would be likely the same as at the trials, provided they are all healthy, but you never know. I find Sell and Hall quite a contrast in running styles, Hall is poetry in motion, flows as smoothly as water downhill, Sell is working very hard and it looks like he is working very hard. I admire the guts of Sell as much as the grace of Hall, Ritzenheim has a steely determination too, so can't be counted out, but perhaps a more natural 10,000 runner at this point in his career, in my opinion. I know less about the U.S. women, I suppose Deena Kastor is the best hope for a medal, but can't help hoping Paula Radcliffe makes up for the disappointment of Athens. Simon.

Thanks, Chris. The finishing order in a marathon are very difficult to guess. Before the US Olympic Trials I would have guessed Meb Kefflezighi (sp?) and possibly Culpepper would have been likely to be in the top three, so given how unpredictable performance on a given day can be, it makes sense to send as many runners as possible. Our programme is focused on reaching the podium, rather than building depth, or developing younger athletes. This has been the subject of much discussion about short and long term goals. I suspect some countries are basing teams on which runners are willing to act as pacers and work together as a team rather than pursue individual goals. I cannot picture anyone asking Brian Sell how he'd feel about pacing Ryan Hall for 38-40kms then letting him go by! Who knows? Simon.

between runs, they did almost nothing but lie around, sip tea, eat, and sleep.

That's how I'd like to train, esp. the eating part.

You and me both. Between runs I just lie around at work, sip coffee and eat. Unlike you, I don't have a closet at work to nap in.

No closet? That sucks. You better get even my stealing pencils.

I agree. I think the person who wins in Beijing just might be someone with a decent PB (2:07-2:08) who is very good in the heat and can handle the surges. There's a very good chance that we'll have never heard of him. One person I would pick for the win is Mubarak Hassan Shami, who's coached by Renato Canova. He was 8th in the heat at Mombasa last year, compared with 32nd in cool weather at Fukuoka and 23rd on Sunday in Edinburgh. He also won silver in Osaka and has a PB of 2:07.

So Mubarak can't win now b/c you have heard of him Kidding aside I think at least 2 of the 3 medalists will be guys who are solid performers who few pick before the race. The winner will be capable of running at least 2:06-2:07 (even if he runs 2:11) Basically, look at the top-10 rankings last year add in a couple names who weren't there, but that you've heard of (Paul Tergat for example) and one of them will get a medal of some color. The other two will be guys who have finished top-10 in a few major races, but who haven't yet broken through. Fortunately, Ryan Hall was ranked in the top-10 in the world last year so is in that first group, Ritz and Sell would both fall into the second group so maybe America gets 2 medals Okay probably not, but that would be really cool. I honestly think America's best chance at an Olympic medal was 4th in the trials (Khalid Kannouchi) and will only get to go if Ritz decides to do the 10,000m instead. Of the three who made the trials Hall has by far the best chance at a medal, followed by Sell who is tough, can grind away and will be catching people late who go out to fast, but may have to many people between him and a medal when the racing starts.

With Geb out, here's my prediction: Hall takes the gold, but is disqualified for wearing an iPod.

Just got back from Beijing. Got a look at the stadium and it looks like they have a long way to go. This was as close as we could get. BTW, I have been to Beijing several times before this and the air pollutioin was the worst I've seen (or actually smelled) it there. It reminds me of the smell of carburator dip. I think it WILL affect the marathon.

I thought it was ugly as well. It's supposed to be a bird's nest. Hopefully, Hall and the other Americans won't lay an egg there.