Where have all the good runners gone? (Read 1621 times)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8014539.stm Personally, I suspect sub 2:50 runners are shunning "tourist" marathons or moving to more challenging events.

They're all 26 years older. You should check the age-grade scores. On a serious note, you need more than those two data points. Results for all the years in between would also do better to establish a trend. I think social issues would be the most important factor though. In 1982, you ran a marathon to compete in a marathon. In 2008, more people ran a marathon to see if they could finish.

Here's one answer ... http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/apr/23/london-marathon-gb-elite-runners-decline-ian-stewart In the 80s running in the UK was a huge phenomenon with even in small towns you would have training groups of a dozen or more running two-a-days. Stewart, Foster, Bedford, Coe, Cram, Ovett and others were products of this. When my wife ran in Oxford in the 80s (sub 17:30 for 5k) she was fifth on her club team. A little like here, running shifted to being about events and finishers rather than racers. With the profusion of ways to spend your non-working hours, how many people want to dedicate it all to running.

Ah, so a useful data point might be # of unique sub-2:40 marathoners in the year -- maybe they're split out across more races now, so each race gets fewer of them...

That's a good point. I'm not sure how many people were traveling to other countries to run in marathons a couple of decades ago. For many UK folks, London was the event, year after year. Nowadays they are likely thinking of Berlin, Boston and who knows where else as well as London.

The deterioration at the front of the pack is real and isn't unique to London. It has occurred in other developed nations. And it isn't simply a matter of better runners being spread across more marathons. For an analysis of what has happened in the U.S., see A Comparison of 1980 vs. 2005 Marathoners.

It refers to a 2006 annual marathon report which currently goes to a dead page (http://www.runningusa.org/cgi/mar_repts.pl) and to a list of results of 327 marathons in the US in 2005, which apparently is a link of 327 result sets. The first page isn't currently working, and I definitely cannot click through 327 result sets. Let me see if I understand your assertion in the article. You allege that in 1980 there were 53,700 male marathon finishers under 3:32:17. You allege that in 2005 there were 34,629 male marathon finishers under 3:32:17. Am I correctly characterizing your allegation? How did you get those numbers -- did you go through those 327 marathon results manually adding up male finishers under 3:32:17? Are you adding up total finishers, or only counting each person once? Also, you speak of a decline of American marathoners -- but your data seems to be marathon finishers in the US. By "American marathoners", do you mean "marathoners who ran in America" then? (That's not really the common understanding of the term at all.)

I love it when mediocre runners ask where all the good runners have gone.

Here's one answer ... http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/apr/23/london-marathon-gb-elite-runners-decline-ian-stewart

"There are more than 100 Kenyans who have run faster than any British man in the last two years." that is a pretty good summary right there.

not many people signed up for marathons in 1980 with a goal of "just finishing". A 4-hour marathon was back of the pack in those days.